DAQMAN 124 UP OVER PRICEWISE: The challenge is on again today: Peerless Pricewise (the Racing Post’s own words this morning) versus Betdaq’s free tipster, Dauntless Daqman. Current standings this season: Daqman 16, Pricewise 8 (overall 124-67). They clash in the 2.25 and 3.35 Newbury today.
THE SIX-HIT BANKERS ARE BACK: Daqman’s bankers have been quiet because of the poor racing – if any – but are back today (on six in a row) at Newbury. His lays are 11 in a row. His Bull’s-Eye Bets 40 points in profit.
31.0 AFTER 33-1 & 25-1 SECONDS: Pricewise today goes for a 50-1 shot (with one bookmaker last night). Daqman has had place returns from two (out of two) outsiders in the last 10 days: Basil Berry (2nd 33-1) on January 28) and yesterday Conjola (2nd 25-1). Today’s biggest offer taken by him was 31.0 in the big race.
CHOICE BUT NOT CLASSY NEWBURY HURDLE
3.35 Newbury Hurdle The top eight in my ABC Guide (see Tuesday in the Archive) have contained all bar one big-race winner since the Derby.
Today that would suggest – listed with best offers first (9 a.m. this morning) – 60.0 Forced Family Fun, 37.0 Bordoni, 31.0 Amore Alato, 26.0 Violet Dancer, 24.0 Wicklow Brave, 23.0 Ballybolley, 19.5 Chieftain’s Choice, 19.0 Jolly’s Cracked It.
Just look at those prices! It’s a fabulous BETDAQ orange, in total only 107% as I write for a race which hovers around 130% SP with the bookmakers (130 in 2013 and 129 last year). Value or what!
Amore Alato is huge at the 31.0 offer, as the half-length runner-up – giving away a stone – at Sandown in December to Snake Eyes, who misses the cut here, strongly fancied. A front or van runner, so one to trade in the race maybe.
But my first choice, literally, is John Quinn’s slick little jumper Chieftain’s Choice, a novice with a big future, as long as he stays away from Cheltenham. He’s not big enough for that, so this and Aintree are his Cheltenhams.
I hear that Pricewise has had four cracks at this race (I don’t like to look at his until I’ve chosen mine). I’ll have a third, since the BETDAQ market allows it.
This is not a classy renewal. Paul Nicholls’ Zarkandar, who won it off 151 carrying 11st 1lb, would be through the roof here on 12st., so Triumph Hurdle fourth Calipto – entered for the Champion Hurdle before his comeback on the course in the autumn – looks well in, despite 11st 6lb.
Saved up for this, and better than the other class horse today because that one – Sign Of A Victory – prefers a sound surface.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: 1 Chieftain’s Choice, 2 Calipto, 3 Amore Alato
VIBRATO TO VAULT TO THE FORE IN ARKLE
2.05 Warwick (Kingmaker Novices’ Chase): Two good reasons for a bet in this race. Firstly, the BETDAQ orange added up to 101% over my cornflakes, which means layers are paying out almost as much as you bet, as near a level playing-field as you’ll get.
Secondly, Vibrato Valtat is our Arkle Chase hope for Cheltenham (we took 15.5 to win 50 points). Today we can cover our stake and look forward to a reduction in the offers, so that Cheltenham will be an easy trade.
Strictly, as official joint-top rating with Top Gamble, he is at a 3lb disadvantage but Vibrato is the improver who has beaten better yardsticks.
At Kempton he got back up to conquer Three Kingdoms (a winner before and since that race) with the Haldon Gold Cup winner, God’s Own, third, and he turned over Cheltenham form with Dunraven Storm at Sandown before that.
Dunraven Storm had beaten Far West more than four lengths at Exeter before that one ran a pound or two off Top Gamble at Newbury.
So, contrary to what the handicapper suggests, that gives Vibrato Valtat five lengths on Top Gamble, an exuberant front-runner, who looks not worth the gamble here.
PLAY ‘OBOE’: HE’S TUNED UP FOR DENMAN
1.15 Newbury Calipto, one of the fancied horses for the big hurdle, won this race last year, making Paul Nicholls’ form figures for the race 13121 since 2008 (among them Al Ferof).
Sandwiched in the Nicholls place slots are two winners for Nicky Henderson, and the top-table duo look set to fight it out again here, with the first-time hooded Bouvreuil (‘Bovril’ in the yard) an excellent 6.0 offer over Cardinal Walter.
1.50 Newbury This race has been won once or twice with a big weight but five of the last six winners have been saddled up with 11st 1lb or less.
Upswing won it last year and that’s a good way to describe the current fortunes of his trainer, Jonjo O’Neill, whose form figures since the turn of the month – after a January to forget – have been 1301101230122.
Jonjo can take this with the progressive Milan Bound but, under our Rule, since so many second-strings have been winning, we have to leave a pound on Merry King.
2.25 Newbury (Denman Chase) Harry Topper goes for back-to-back wins in this, a race won in the two previous seasons by Gold Cup winners, Long Run and Silviniaco Conti, hard on the heels of the amazing duo Denman and Kauto Star (2007 and 1008).
A kingmaker race. But have we got any heirs apparent here? I doubt it. Harry Topper, himself, hasn’t completed the course since last year’s success. Double Ross hasn’t won outside Cheltenham since September, 2013, and has failed to finish in three of his last four starts.
Connections of Unioniste had no choice but to follow this route after the handicapper took a swipe at him for winning at Sandown early in the new year.
He raced off his lowest mark for two years that day and was entitled to beat a class-3 winner. He hasn’t won a Graded race for two years, and must now show that he is back on the ladder.
Unioniste has to give 4lb to Houblon Des Obeaux and that looks tough, with the ‘Oboe ‘ running a mighty race when second to The Young Master – that one was making it eight wins from nine starts – giving away a massive 17lb, so much was he hiked after being runner-up in the Hennessy.
Coneygree had some easy chasing rides round before winter set in but was a classy novice-hurdler and is on five wins out of six.
The main obstacle to the ‘Oboe’ and to Unioniste, however, must be Taquin de Seuil, with his stable now shooing them in after a lean spell (on current form figures of 1301201230122).
VERDICT: Taquin de Seuil had a fine novice career, culminating in his JLT (Golden Miller) win at Cheltenham, and Jonjo O’Neill is now returned to form.
But he’s always needed a run back and, along with Unioniste, may have to chase home the reborn Houblon Des Obeaux, who goes best after a break. A cracking contest but not a kingmaker.
3.00 Newbury (Game Spirit Chase) This race has set up Champion Chase winners Master Minded (2008-9) and Sprinter Sacrte (2013). Today it has just as big a job: save the championship race from it blushes.
It’s currently a poor renewal. Unless something wins this in style, it’s Dodging Bullets versus yesterday’s man, Sprinter Sacre, on March 11.
Sire De Grugy, the 2014 champion, must win this well to bring the festival title alive again. He’s 11lb or more in front of today’s field and, if he beats Uxizandre, pundits will point to that one’s defeat of Dodging Bullets in November to suggest the March title is the Sire’s again.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 6pts win BOUVREUIL and 3pts (stakes saver) CARDINAL WALTER (1.15 Newbury)
BET 9pts win (nap) MILAN BOUND and 3pts win MERRY KING (1.50 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (2.05 Warwick)
BET 9pts win HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (2.25 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 6pts win CALIPTO, 2.7pts win CHIEFTAIN’S CHOICE, 1.6pts win and place AMORE ALATO (3.35 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win treble Milan Bound (1.50 Newbury), Vibrato Valtat (2.05 Warwick) and Sire de Grugy (3.00 Newbury)
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