BULL’S-EYE BETS IN THREE RACES AND AN OLD-FRIEND BANKER: Daqman concentrates on the two big races today, the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton Park and the Warwick Classic Chase but also has bull’s-eye bets later on at the Midlands meeting. His nap is old-friend Frodon, who may not see another horse in the Silviniaco Conti Chase. Headlines:
🔹 PARK BENCHMARK FOR LANZAROTE
🔹 CONDITIONAL A DREAM TRAVELLER
🔹 FRODON TO PROVE HE’S TOP NOTCH
ACCOUNTS UPDATE
📈 Daqman 25, Pricewise 12 (+271.40 to -16.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets 38% (+186.020 from 8-21) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps: no bets yet in 2020
📈 All Daily Naps 45% (+42.96 from 26-58) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 50% (+14.31 from 9-18) 20pt stakes at SP
PARK BENCHMARK FOR LANZAROTE
2.40 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle) The winner has been claimed off five times in the last six seasons. I can’t fancy Theinval (Connor Brace 3), now aged 10 and running in his first hurdle since the Spring of 2016.
So responsibility for keeping those stats alive must lie with Burrows Park (Lucy Turner 7), who has excellent credentials in the last year. I took 15.5 on BETDAQ.
If you delete form on the championship courses of Aintree and Cheltenham, his figures are 1123121, and his returns with Lucy Turner doing the steering are 11231, versatile as to trip from 2m 2f to 3m and more.
Venetia Williams, who was having a purple patch – striking at up to 50% – last time he won, has hit the bull or the wire with figures of 0221 in the last couple of days.
Burrows Park is not to be confused with Burrows Edge (same breeder, same mare), trained by Nicky Henderson, who has won the race three times to Venetia’s two.
Burrows Edge was placed twice in good company here at Kempton last Spring off a similar mark, and this was an obvious target, after an unlucky fall when jumping well enough most of the way round, heavily backed in his first chase.
I prefer Notre Pari (4.5 taken on BETDAQ): he is lightly raced, so still unexposed, and looked good in today’s conditions when scoring at Aintree last month.
Northofthewall had to drop back to class 5 to win his maiden but Larkbarrow Lad climbed the novice ranks quickly in the autumn and is related for stamina to Master Of The Hall in a line which goes back to Sound Man. Had a wind op since and looks a chasing prospect.
Debestyman and Vive Le Roi are not out of it, as front-runners who have stayed further.
CONDITIONAL A DREAM TRAVELLER
3.00 Warwick (Classic) Grand National gambles followed the success in this 3m 5f marathon of West End Rocker (2011), who was brought down at Aintree, and One For Arthur (2017), who went on to win the big’un!.
Of today’s runners, Le Breuil (25-1), One For Arthur (33-1) and Kimberlite Candy (50-1) are quoted for the National by Ladbrokes, but horses rated below 142 like Kimberlite Candy would have missed the Aintree cut last year, so he must win before the weights are out in February.
Candy’s CV shows that he needs to be fresh, having won three times after a longer break. He was all geared up for the Becher Chase: first run back and first in cheekpieces.
He ran a cracker as runner-up (One For Arthur behind and Mysteree pulled up) but was raised only 3lb to 140 so may have missed the boat. Another couple of pounds and he wouldn’t have been running here. You’re betting his five weeks off is enough.
Impulsive Star has failed to complete in three starts since taking the Classic prize last year off 133 in a 10lb stronger race (Milansbar behind), and wears blinkers for the first time.
Crosspark, who was third, is 10lb worse off, having since improved to win the Eider Chase and finish second in the Coral Scottish Grand National, raising his mark to 144. He was also in poor form in the autumn.
But he was eased after a mistake three out when going well in the Tommy Whittle, run on heavy ground a few days before Christmas.
Mysteree, runner-up to him in the Eider, is strictly weighted to more or less dead-heat now, but was boosted by first-time blinkers that day. Kimberlite Candy (5th) is only 8lb better off to make up 14 lengths on Crosspark now.
Ben Pauling had the Grand National in mind after Le Breuil won the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham, and he looked to be on a slow fuse for April at Aintree when seventh in the Becher. Winning today would raise his rating beyond 150.
The Conditional has improved a stone since joining David Bridgwater, winning at Cheltenham before ‘travelling like a dream’ (says the Racing Post racereader) to finish second in the Ladbrokes Trophy, the former Hennessy, at Newbury in November, suggesting he would get today’s extra distance.
Darlac was well supported during the week. He still a work in progress but was Graded level over hurdles and Colin Tizzard knows just where to place his staying chasers (Christmas In April won the Sussex National for me at 9-2 earlier in the week).
Verdict: We have to second guess the intentions regarding Kimberlite Candy and Le Breuil and, in any event, decide whether the pair are up to doing the job today against The Conditional (5.2 offers as I write), who should be a hot favourite on Ladbrokes Trophy form.
But five out of the last nine winners have been double-figure odds at SP, and Darlac (12.0 on BETDAQ) appears to be lying in wait for a major prize.
FRODON TO PROVE HE’S TOP NOTCH
2.05 Kempton (Silviniaco Conti Chase) Nicky Henderson, chasing his fourth win in five years, relies on last year’s winner Top Notch.
Top Notch is favourite, despite being a year older and 7lb behind in the ratings to Frodon, who won three in a row for our Fortune Cookies including the Ryanair at Cheltenham, and has conditions in his favour to make all the running today. I took 2.82.
2.25 Warwick Ben Pauling’s Willoughby Court landed this column a 14-1 Cheltenham festival winner after taking this at Warwick in 2017.
The same stable has similar Cheltenham plans for Whatsupwithyou but he’s had just the one run one win under Rules, in which he had to be ridden out to beat average-looking sorts.
Dan Skelton has won this twice in five seasons and it’s hard to gauge their worth when they run away with a nonevent as did Shan Blue at Southwell. Beat nothing well.
Keen On has scored back to back and, as a Kayf Tara, is improving for a trip. I thought 5.6 was big value in the BETDAQ orange.
3.35 Warwick Stoney Mountain put in a storming finish to score at Haydock. The third horse, Tedham, should be right on top of him at the revised weights and with a tongue-tie.
One For The Team stayed on well at Newbury but I have vowed to follow Jessica Harrington’s improving novice, Silver Sheen. That gives me two against the field at 8.0 and 10.0 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Kempton (win 20)
BET 11pts win (nap) FRODON
2.25 Warwick (win 20)
BET 4.25pts win KEEN ON
2.40 Kempton (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win BURROWS PARK
BET 5.75pts win NOTRE PARI
3.00 Warwick (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.5pts win DARLAC
BET 4.75pts win THE CONDITIONAL
3.35 Warwick (win 50 each)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7pts win STONEY MOUNTAIN
BULL’S-EYE BET 5.5pts win SILVER SHEEN
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