BETDAQ BETS AT 32.0 AND 12.5 TWICE IN TWO TOUGH HANDICAPS: Daqman had winner and third from his three in the Devon National yesterday.. and backed the other one! Better luck today as he faces Pricewise in the 2.05 Lingfield, 3.15 Newcastle and 3.35 Kempton, with BETDAQ bets including 12.5 twice and 32.0, his final-fling Fortune Cookie, with two tough handicaps today.
DAQMAN LEADS 25-15 WITH 657 POINTS SCORED OVER PRICEWISE: The scores with one month of the Jumps season left are Daqman 25, Pricewise 15, with profits 657 to 406 points to 10-point level stakes. Headlines:
🔹 LOCKE INTO HELTER-SKELTON RUN
🔹 COWELL’S IN ORBIT LIKE A ROCKET
🔹 TENDER TOUGH TYPE IN THE EIDER
🔹 CAP FITS ON FORM IN CONDITIONS
LOCKE INTO HELTER-SKELTON RUN
⭕ 2.25 Kempton (Adonis Juvenile Hurdle) There was proof yesterday, if proof were needed, as I faded out Fortune Cookies, that reliable form this Jumps season is hard to come by in the mud; therefore following horses is not a good idea.
Fortune Cookies have done well but facing up to Cheltenham will be impossible without a free hand and a close watch on the going that prevails at the time.
There was a red flag when Nicky Henderson pulled Heross Du Seuil out of today’s Adonis and ran him in the seemingly easier Triumph trial here yesterday.
In the event, he found the helter-Skelton ride on Cabot Cliffs 17 lengths too good for him, and that must reflect on the horse that gifted him the Kempton race at Christmas: Honneur d’Ajonc, a faller when a length up on him at the last.
That has prompted a rush to back Tritonic (Alan King) in the Adonis, down to around even money this morning.
He beat Casa Loupi at Ascot last month, and Kingy’s stable left it’s poor form behind with a double yesterday.
I shall spare a pound for John Locke (BETDAQ 14.0), with the Skelton team now on 16 winners in 14 days. The place is around 2-1 or you can save on Tritonic.
These novices – more at 1.50 and 3.00 – are really races to watch, so I am moving on to the Winter Derby meeting and the big handicaps at Newcastle and Kempton.
COWELL’S IN ORBIT LIKE A ROCKET
⭕ 2.05 Lingfield (Hever Sprint) Nunthorpe third Moss Gill is the classy one but can expect furious rides from Ornate and Lord Biddiford out of stalls 1 and 2 , likely to cut each other’s throat and set this up for a come-from-behind horse.
Royal Birth loves Lingfield (won this race in 2017) but scored back to back here at the turn of the year and may need to drop a couple of pounds.
Robert Cowell is in fine form with two wins from his last three starters and it’s hard to choose between Blue De Vega (BETDAQ 12.5), who has won on Polytrack, and Rocket Action (5.1 with Hollie Doyle booked).
⭕ 2.40 Lingfield (Winter Derby) STATS & FORM guide: Thursday in the Daqman Archive.
Alongside the reduction in the line-up to just five has been the gamble on Father Of Jazz (BETDAQ 2.63 this morning), an impressive winner here earlier in the month.
It can be no coincidence and, as I said on Thursday, others in the field have close ties in the form and are just 2-3lb apart in the ratings; all of a heap, sitting ducks against an improver.
TENDER TOUGH TYPE IN THE EIDER
⭕ 3.15 Newcastle (Eider Chase) Crosspark won this the last time they ran it, but that was 2019 and he’s struggled gallantly with the extra burden since, serving only to push it up 15lb overall, with seconds in the Scottish Grand National, London National and Veterans Final.
But it’s very hard to oppose him with a favourite like Salty Boy, who is 0-10 over fences, or with Sam’s Adventure, who beat Salty six lengths in the Tommy Whittle, but is worse off at the weights.
Crossley Tender is up 24lb for seven straight places, four of them wins, for a rise of 25lb in three months. He was 7.3 when I checked the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
He went clear at Exeter in January of yesterday’s Devon National winner, Samuel Jackson, so may not be done with yet.
Cyclops was a well-beaten third in the Somerset National to the Devon National third, Dawson City, and is now 12lb higher than for his neck defeat in the Lincolnshire National.
Little Red Lion is lower class so far and has no stamina pretensions but Strong Economy (BETDAQ 12.5) raced through tired horses to win over 3m 3f at Ayr, where he’s landed 3-4 in a year. He’s just out of the weights. Friends Don’t Ask? Don’t ask, friends; he’s 27lb out !
CAP FITS ON FORM IN CONDITIONS
⭕ 3.35 Kempton The final Fortune Cookie to be official staked in the Jumps season is Mister Malarkey, who won this race last year.
Colin Tizzard remains in very iffy form with a hurdles winner yesterday but Christmas In April pulling up the Devon National.
I know that Mister Malarky (BETDAQ 32.0), who won the Ascot Silver Cup in December, has targeted this race ever since he kyboshed a four-strong Paul Nicholls team attack last year (they were second, third, sixth and eighth).
The 7lb claim of hopeful local hero Harry Kimber means he is within a pound of last year’s winning weight. The second horse then was the favourite, Black Corton, who again represented Nicholls, a couple of pounds better off but in poor form since.
Another Team Tizzard hopeful, Slate House, has also been out of form for more than a year now.
Cap Du Nord (BETDAQ 9.7) is an outsider for the Grand National after beating Canelo on good ground at Newbury and running third in the Great Yorkshire.
The winner of that, Royal Pagaille, boltd up at Haydock next time to book himself a Cheltenham Gold Cup place.
The Twiston-Davies team have finally decided to have a go at a trip, with Al Dancer (7.9), who has shown them he jumps quickly but stays on after 2m or 2m 4f. Clondaw Castle and Southfield Stone also step up in trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Lingfield (win 12)
BET 3pts win ROCKET ACTION
BET 1pt win BLUE DE VEGA
2.25 Kempton (win 13, win 4 place)
BET 1pt win and 2pts place JOHN LOCKE
2.40 Lingfield (win 10 nap)
BET 6pts win FATHER OF JAZZ
3.15 Newcastle (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 8pts win CROSSLEY TENDER
BULL-S-EYE BET 4pts win STRONG ECONOMY
3.35 Kempton (win 50)
BET 7pts win AL DANCER
BET 5.75pts win CAP DU NORD
DAQ MULTIPLES
1pt win treble
TRITONIC (2.25 Kempton)
FATHER OF JAZZ (2.40 Lingfield)
CHOUNGAYA (3.25 Fairyhouse)
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win MISTER MALARKY
(3.35 Kempton)
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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