BETDAQ HAS OFFERS YOU JUST CAN’T BELIEVE: You just ‘can’t believe’ the BETDAQ offers. So said Daqman about 7.4 for Aidan O’Brien’s filly, Actress, at the Curragh yesterday but she was opposed on course as well before making almost all the running to score at 11-2.
DAQMAN IS 120 POINTS CLEAR: BELIEVE THAT! It’s Daqman v Pricewise in the Saturday feature races again. Daqman leads 30-8 (he’s 120 points clear with a profit of +33 to Pricewise loss of -87) as they square up in the 2.30 Musselburgh, 2.50 Haydock, 3.05 Newmarket and 11.46 Belmont Park
REVEREND BOOST FROM THE SKY
1.55 Musselburgh I’m happy to discard the older horses: Dance King because he needs soft ground; Eye Of The Storm because he hasn’t won since 2013; Lycidas because he hasn’t raced on the Flat for two years.
Theglasgowwarrior is two grades higher than when he won here in early May but up only 6lb though he’s won another race.
So I choose between the southern raiders, Western Duke, who made a nice start to his season at Ascot, a month ago, before Reverend Jacobs made all at York, counting Sky Eagle (narrowly beaten yesterday) among his victims. Banker.
2.30 Musselburgh (Scottish Sprint) El Astronaute (stall 14) is better off with Major Jumbo and Dark Shot on his running in two races at York in May.
But better in with all three is Line Of Reason (9.8 on BETDAQ), who won today’s race a year ago from stall 8, adjacent to his starting gate now in 7. Caspian Prince, giving him a stone that day, is 2lb worse off.
Mayleaf Shine and Sole De L’Eau seem to need rain but the well-drawn Copper Knight (12.0 on BETDAQ) can improve on his York run. He’s won at this level off today’s mark and was well backed overnight with some firms.
HOW BETDAQ HELPS THE CAUSE
2.50 Haydock God Given, Mam’Selle and What A Home have won all their races on the soft and, unless the ‘occasional thunderstorm’ is heavy, can’t be backed with any confidence.
Nor can Fosun, whose German form has no collateral here, and whose draw in 2 is a negative (as is Mam’Selle’s in the one stall). Connections will be hoping for a black-type place, which is so valuable to breeders, particularly over there.
The same applies to Mellinoe, who switches from a class-2 handicap at Newmarket to go for black type here.
I prefer to be with Cribbs Causeway who is a bit ‘hidden’ in that she has raced over further the last twice and is now back in her comfort zone of 1m 4f.
I took 5.7 the Roger Charlton runner but noted the BETDAQ overround was only 102%, so plenty of room to play if the market develops.
3.05 Newmarket Here you have two areas that provide decent prices. The horse with potential being nursed forward by a leading artist in that field – Sir Michael Stoute with 3.7 favourite this morning, Georgian Manor – and one disguised because hampered when dropped to a handicap from Group 2 on the last day.
That’s Grand Koonta, tipped by me at Goodwood but squeezed out up the hill, as can happen even to the best of animals. Looks too big here at 14.0
QULOOB GOES SO WELL FRESH
3.40 Newmarket Though he’s won at no higher level than class 4, Addicted To You shot up the ratings 21lb for a race his stable won last year with another improver. This is his big chance to make his mark at 7.4 on BETDAQ.
Quloob also improved in his second season but we haven’t seen him since he was stepped up to today’s trip and just missed a four-timer, having won on firm and soft. But he goes really well fresh: 6.0 on BETDAQ.
Byron Flyer has almost always run at today’s level, the bridesmaid suffering very narrow defeats: a head (twice), a neck (three times) and half a length over the last 14 months.
Amazing Red was squeezed out, fifth, when Fire Jet and Alqamar (lost shoe) were second and third on the Rowley Mile course here three weeks ago.
5.45 Auteuil (Prix La Barka) They’ve moved the race back into the June slot; they’ve cut the distance by two furlongs; and the going is heavy.
But can anything stop Willie Mullins, who has five of the 13 including last year’s winner, Shaneshill, with Danny Mullins taking the ride in place of Ruby Walsh.
Bidding for a Willie Mullins hat-trick and his fifth win in seven seasons are also Bleu Berry, Yorkhill, Bapaume and Asthuria.
I note Jacques Ricou’s booking for Asthuria, a 12-1 chance this morning. The mare likes to lead and, with a featherweight, may be hard to catch.
10-1 TENFOLD JUSTIFIES A BET
11.46 Belmont Park While the English Triple Crown is hardly viable these days, the American version is bigger than ever since American Pharoah resurrected it three years ago, first winner since Affirmed (1978).
Now Kentucky Derby, Preakness and tonight’s Belmont Stakes could go the way of Justifiy. Can he step up the extra quarter mile to 1m 4f.
Only about a length separated the finishers in the Preakness, with Bravazo and Tenfold closing down the winner.
Bravazo had run a similar race in the Kentucky Derby which suggests to me that he’s a tough stayer with little in the way of finish.
So I prefer Steve Asmussen’s Tenfold, appropriately 10-1 but a crazy price for one who was less than a length off Justify last time. One bookie this morning went 14-1.
Tenfold took a sudden step forward in the Preakness, suggesting a new maturity, and has Steve ‘very excited’ for tonight.
Jeremy Noseda’s Gronkowski – four mile wins at home on AW – would have had a better chance in the Kentucky Derby but had a setback. Tonight’s trip looks beyond him on breeding and on his free style of running.
SUPERNAP: 20pts win REVEREND JACOBS
2.30 Musselburgh (win 50 and win 30)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.5pts win COPPER KNIGHT
BET 3.5pts win LINE OF REASON
2.50 Haydock (win 30)
BET 6.25pts win CRIBBS CAUSEWAY
3.05 Newmarket (win 20 and win 50)
BET 7.5pts win GEORGIAN MANOR
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.75pts win and place GRAND KOONTA
3.40 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 6pts win QULOOB
BET 4.5pts win ADDICTED TO YOU
5.45 Auteuil (win 30)
BET 2.75pts win and place ASTHURIA
11.46 Belmont Park (win 30)
BET 3pts win and place TENFOLD
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