9-2 HIT IN DAQMAN WINNERS QUEST: Daqman has had two winners two days running, including his nap and a tasty 9-2 hit yesterday with Broken Quest, despite a huge field for his handicap hurdle at Kempton.
WON 7-4 GOWITHTHEFLOW (win 20)
WON 2-1 GUNFLEET (win 20)
WON 9-2 BROKEN QUEST (win 20)
WON 1-1 OK CORRAL (nap)
WELL IN FRONT FOR VALUE AT 18-8: He’s hunting more good odds today, with three bull’s-eye bets (win 50), including two attempts to win the big Newbury Hurdle, and continue his success against Pricewise of the Racing Post (current scores Daqman 18, Pricewise 8, with Daqman 52 points ahead)
SEE BASTIEN SHOW HIS STAMINA
1.50 Newbury Three of the first four in the market either fell or pulled up in their last race! The odd one out is King Uther, who won recently and has the lowest weight of them all but is a tricky ride. Might try to make all if it’s very soft.
Barters Hill, who successively beat Ballydine, Bellshill, Buveur d’Air and Politologue into second in 2015-16, went on to be fourth in the Albert Bartlett but missed the whole of 2017.
Like Barters Hill, Loch Derg Farmer was switched from hurdles to fences on the last day and also pulled up.
Bastien charged up the hill to win at Towcester, suggesting that this 3m is within his compass, and I’ll have a bit of (9.4) win and place
2.25 Newbury (Denham Chase) Long Run and Coneygree won this when on the gold trail and last year’s winner, Native River, is back for more, returning from injury.
Cloudy Dream has been second seven times out of eight races, including when second in the Arkle, and I’ll go along with the Tizzard revival.
2.55 Lingfield If the handicapper’s done his stuff, they will all finish in a line but any draw bias could ruin his hard work.
And this might well be a race where he – and the high draw -have no chance. Winners by stall since 2009 have been 3, 3, 5, 5, 3, 3, 2.
And there in stall 2 is the progressive Mark Johnston four-year-old, Poet’s Society. Say no more. Big value at BETDAQ 7.6
DOUBLE-WHAMMY MATCH RACE
3.00 Newbury (Game Spirit Chase) It’s a match between Altior, six wins in a row including this race and the Cheltenham Arkle last season, and Politologue, who has taken the Tingle Creek and Desert Orchid this season. I’ll go with recent form and fitness, and try a double whammy.
3.15 Warwick Nigel Twiston-Davies (5-12 still standing) gives himself two chances, Cogry and Templehill, who made all in this race last year.
Perhaps he’ll make all; or perhaps he’ll set it up for stablemate Cogry, the Scottish National runner-up, dropped back in trip here.
But, even though he travels well in his races, it’s hard to see Cogry having the speed at the trip. He was a one-paced third when he tried this race two years ago.
Kylemore Lough, who won five in a row for Kerry lee (2015-16), should be ready now having only his third run for Harry Fry, massively dropped in class, but he has to give weight all round.
Value At Risk beat nothing at Doncaster and I’ll take a chance on Thomas Crapper. He won the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury last March and goes well fresh for a yard that has had 10 horses consecutively in the first four (two wins), still standing, in the last fortnight: 7.8 BETDAQ offers.
BLUE OR BLEU? I DON’T MIND
3.35 Newbury Hurdle The successful run of horses aged five and six (11 wins in a row now) harks back to the good old bad old days of Ryan Price, who won it four years out of five with his youngsters.
Like the last 11, too, the winners in those early years of the 1960s were all from the bottom half of the handicap. Nicky Henderson with five wins and and Gary Moore on three are the modern stables to follow.
Henderson has five in it today, Moore just the one,
Knocknanuss, nicely placed in the handicap off 10st 13lb but eight years old now.
My man in the long grass at Lambourn can’t split Nicky’s pair, Kayf Grace and the consistent, sweet-travelling Verdana Blue.
Kayf Grace needs to improve past Lalor (wind op) on their November form, and Lalor’s Cheltenham conqueror, Western Ryder, has been beaten this week.
Similarly, Red Indian has just failed to boost the Kempton form of Spiritofthegames and Coeur Blimey.
Willie Mullins’ raider Bleu Et Rouge could improve enough for a tongue-tie, faster pace and deeper ground on his fourth at Ascot in December when Silver Streak was second, Verdana Blue was third.
That pace is guaranteed from Verdana Blue’s stablemate, Lough Derg Spirit and also from Waterlord, who will welcome the rain.
If anyone was in any doubt that Blue’s rider, Davy Russell, is absolutely flying – higher than any Brit – he comes here straight after a five-timer at Fairyhouse and Thurles on Wednesday and Thursday.
Further improvement is also possible from another Henderson runner, Jenkins, which one tipster describes in the well-worn phrase ‘like a Graded horse in a handicap at Ascot’. It was, in fact, a Graded race.
High Bridge ought to figure because he won the Gerry Feilden on today’s course but runner-up Charli Parcs – yet another Henderson here – has done nothing for the form.
VERDICT: This is not a high-quality renewal and there’s a youngster with real potential in the Getaway mare Verdana Blue, who still has a Champion Hurdle option.
She could certainly be Mares’ Hurdle standard, as short as 14-1 in places for Cheltenham with the bookmakers.
Which means you must take the 31.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange this morning. And you can have the 14.0 with BETDAQ to win today’s race!
I can’t see much quality or potential towards the bottom of the handicap so, if the ground is very soft, I’m going for a grey day with Bleu Et Rouge: 16.5 offers.
1.50 Newbury (win 20)
BET 7pts win BARTERS HILL
BET 2.3pts win and place BASTIEN
2.55 Lingfield (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 7.5pts win POET’S SOCIETY
3.00 Newbury (win 20)
BET 11pts win (nap) POLITOLOGUE
LAY to win 11pts ALTIOR
3.15 Warwick (win 20)
BET 3.7pts win TEMPLEHILLS
BET 3pts win and place THOMAS CRAPPER
3.35 Newbury (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.8pts win and place VERDANA BLUE
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.25pts win and place BLEU ET ROUGE
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble NATIVE RIVER (2.25 Newbury), POET’S SOCIETY (2.55 Lingfield) and POLITOLOGUE (3.00 Newbury)
ANTE-POST BET (win 50): 1.6pts win VERDANA BLUE (Mares’ Hurdle) at 31.0
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