DAQMAN LEADS FROM THE FRONT WITH BULL’S-EYE BETS: Winner-a-day dream tipping! Frontispiece (WON 13-2, dd ht) continued Daqman’s run yesterday. Now he wants a 5.5 Saturday nap up, and is on the oche for two bull’s-eye bets, each to win 50 points in the big sprints at Ripon. Today’s headlines:
🔹 BIG-RACE RAILS RIDE CAN MAKE ALL
🔹 TWICE LUCKY ON DRAW AND WEIGHT
🔹 SEXTANT MEASURE OF STOUTE SKILL
🔹 VINTAGE THE GREAT HIDDEN HORSE
🔹 HEY! RAIN A THREAT TO ELZIE PARTY
DAQMAN BETTING ACCOUNTS
Daqman 56 Pricewise 27 Daqman 333 points clear to 10pt stakes
Bull’s-eye naps (6-12 for 50% strike rate) 264 points, recommended stakes
Supernaps (18-26 for 69% strike rate) 118 points up to 20pt stakes
BIG-RACE RAILS RIDE CAN MAKE ALL
A clue in the stats. Stalls anoraks would like the consolation (2.05 race) and today’s big race, the Great St Wilfrid itself (3.15), to record similar results by stall. That way they might narrow the main event down to a shortlist on one side of the track.
But it’s not always a match. In the last three seasons, the results by stall have coincided to some extent: 14-19, 20-10, 20-13 (consolation race first) but before that 13-9, 2-4, 16-8; not so helpful.
You are better off looking in each race for the pace horse; here are the same three consolation winners, set alongside the pace horse, 12-14, 11-20, 18-20/10 (two pace horses).
Here’s the same for the Great St Wilfrid: 19-19 (winner made all), 10-10 (winner made all), 13-13 (winner made all), 8-13 (13 was second).
VERDICT: Both races, the consolation Silver Trophy and the Great St Wilfrid itself, go to double-figure stalls more often than not, particularly when the pace is on the stands’ side. Middle-to-high drawn horses getting to the head of a rails group, near (stands) side or far side, made all the running for three consecutive years.
TWICE LUCKY ON DRAW AND WEIGHT
2.05 Ripon (Silver Trophy consolation) Only once has this gone to a horse older than ages four or five, which have (3-3) six winners out of the seven between them.
Take out of those age groups horses which like the soft ground: Hyperfocus, Lucky Lucky Man, Dalton, Tawny Port, Tomily and Airglow.
Lucky Lucky Man (drawn 16 and 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning) will be 13lb lower than the mark he ran off at Ascot in the autumn after winning the Ayr Bronze Cup in the mud. Bring on the rain!
Stablemate Growl is 10lb lower than when third in the main event last year but he hasn’t scored since 2016 and is adept at finding ways to get himself beaten.
SEXTANT MEASURE OF STOUTE SKILL
2.25 Newbury (Geoffrey Freer Stakes) Morando loves soft ground and his only run at this trip brought him an eight-lengths Ormonde Stakes victory in the Spring.
A soft surface also brought about a change of fortune for Technician at Longchamp in June but that was 1m 2f, and he was easy to back and down the field back up in trip at Goodwood on the last day.
Durston, off only 94, has to prove he is a St Leger type, with a strong pace likely to be set by Sameem. Despite a small field, Sameem’s pace may mean there is no hiding place.
Sextant is not straightforward and his training to peak for The Queen at Royal Ascot went wrong, but he’s won there twice – and gone up a stone – in three wins from four since being gelded.
Sir Michael Stoute improver at tempting odds this morning of 5.5 in the BETDAQ orange. He follows in the hoofprints of the last two Geoffrey Freer heros, Hamada and Defoe, winners in handicaps off 96 and 104. Sextant has won his last two off 97 and 98 and runs here as a 103.
VINTAGE THE GREAT HIDDEN HORSE
3.15 Ripon (Great St Wilfrid Handicap) Gunmetal, who made all from gate 19 last year, now has different ground and a completely different draw: he scooted up the stands rail last time but today has stall 2 down the far side, where he seems short of fast company.
The far side pack filled the next four places behind him last year, with runner-up Dakota Gold now 4lb worse off with Gunmetal but favoured by ground and a draw right on the opposite side.
Dakota Gold (in stall 15 this afternoon) led the far group a furlong out last year and has made all on the soft at Haydock (5f) and York (6f) in two of his last five starts. I took 9.2 on BETDAQ.
CD-winner Lake Volta (13) led for much of the way in the 7f International at Ascot, and Belated Breath (16) for most of the way in the Sprint Series Final (6f) at Nottingham last October and again in a similar event in July.
‘Hidden’ horse Vintage Brut (out of 12) looks poised to give a good account, despite being easy to back at 17.5 offers in the BETDAQ orange.
After modest efforts in the Pattern this term, his rating has dropped back to within a pound of his easy big-field Rockingham Stakes (Listed, soft) win at York last October. Blinkered first time and drawn in the middle. Halved in price overnight with some bookmakers.
HEY! RAIN A THREAT TO ELZIE PARTY
3.35 Newbury (Hungerford Stakes) Veteran trainer David Elsworth, having one of his best seasons, is seeing double three times today, Ripp Orf (3.00) and Sir Dancealot (3.35) as the day’s double.
Sir Dancealot would also be back-to-back Hungerford winner, and would be on a Group-2 double if following up his Lennox Stakes win at Goodwood as he did last year.
So what’s the difference? The awkward answer is soft ground. Though he’s won on good to soft, his form on soft and heavy is 000004.
The softer the better for Haydock hat-trick winner Safe Voyage. He was third, half a length off Hey Gaman in the race won by Romanised at The Curragh before Sir Dancealot beat Hey Gaman a length at Goodwood.
So the theory is: not much between them but the ground to make the difference. I’ll try P J McDonald at 4.6 (one ride one win on Hey Gaman), a Newbury CD winner on the soft, making all the running.
2.05 Ripon (win 50, win 10 place)
BET 3.75pts win and place LUCKY LUCKY MAN
2.15 Doncaster (win 10)
6pts win MUTAFAWWIG
2.25 Newbury (win 30)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) SEXTANT
2.45 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win CHATHAM HOUSE
2.50 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 5pts win DOUBLE KODIAC
3.15 Ripon (win 50, win 12 place)
BET 6pts win and place DAKOTA GOLD
BET 3pts win and place VINTAGE BRUT
3.25 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win ORVAR
3.35 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win HEY GAMAN
4.00 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 4pts win TABASSOR
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