11-4 AS DAQMAN LANDS YORKSHIRE CUP: Like the horses, Daqman hated the ground at the York Dante meeting but landed two winners yesterday to put 60 points between them in the wallet:
WON 11-4 Dartmouth (Yorkshire Cup)
WON 7-2 Mutoondresdasahorse (Newbury)
NOW A 93-1 BETDAQ BIG-RACE GAMBLE: Now for a crack at London Gold Cup and Lockinge Stakes big-race doubles at Newbury (best return 93-1), starting the day in front of Pricewise 23-8 on winning returns.
APPLAUSE FOR MORE BETDAQ VALUE
2.55 Newbury (London Gold Cup) This race is a kingmaker handicap, producing winners like the prolific Al Kazeem, several other Group winners and a Melbourne Cup scorer.
In such circumstances, you need to stick to star stables who have the depth of quality thorougbred.
Andrew Balding has pulled in mucho prizemoney recently and Mucho Applause is a soft-ground winner who was pipped only a short-head in the Esher Cup by a well-handicapped rival who landed me a 12-1 winner that day.
With 25-1 winners twice yesterday and no successful favourites, and with BETDAQ lists in the orange at around 104%, we can afford to (we need to) back two in a race.
Count Calabash, a big improver last year, was spotted on his reappearance looking well grown and ready to add more success to his autumn hat-trick. Sire gets soft-ground winners, and trainer in form. But can he be made to settle?
This is surely the ground for a son of Motivator, and Time To Study – taught his business on AW at the backend of last year – should be ready now to prove something, with Royal Ascot targets (King Edward V11 Stakes and Queens Vase)
Another with exciting potential is also a Queen’s Vase entry. Defoe, who is much better than the bare form, and has been waiting for ease in the ground.
VERDICT: I am loathe to leave out Mucho Applause (stakes saver if you like) but, even at the low BETDAQ overround, I have to protect the percentages and could not be better served than by 9.2 and 9.8 offers Time To Study and Defoe. Both ‘could be anything.’
ACLAIM CAN BRIDGE LOCKINGE GAP
3.30 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes) Winners of this read like a who’s-who of champion milers this century: Canford Cliffs, Frankel, Olympic Glory, Night of Thunder, to name but a few as they say.
Discounting Frankel (rated 136) and ignoring the modest field last season, winners of this have been officially 121, 125, 124, 127, 124 as they’ve lined up.
This year we have Ribchester (122) and Galileo Gold (121) well clear of the rest, but suggesting that we are again a few pounds short of the best of Lockinge fields.
If those two lock horns, and run to form, it should be a humdinger of a finish with less than a length between them.
Ribchester won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on the soft and the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville on good (which usually translates as good to soft in English).
Ribchester, a course winner here at Newbury, was turning around at Deauville the Sussex Stakes form with the 2,000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold, who had also won at Royal Ascot (the St James’s Palace Stakes).
But the worry for backers of both is stable form. Richard Fahey had a poor Chester, where he usually excels, and has a 10% strike rate (9-87) in the last fortnight.
Hugo Palmer, too, has been in the doldrums. He is 2-26 and his two favourites in the two weeks were both ‘stuffed.’
It leans me towards a bit of a turn-up by Aclaim, the big improver of the race, three wins in a row which started off a rating of 97 and he’s now on 114.
He hasn’t had a run but scored first time up last season, has won here at Newbury on the soft and scored his first Group success at Newmarket, albeit both those races were at 7f.
He’s closely related to a 1,000 Guineas winner and to a half-sister of Montjeu. The stable is on a high with its Craven Stakes winner, Eminent, due to run in the Derby.
VERDICT: Win and place Aclaim at 9.6 in a 103% orange with three chances of a 150% place profit. Ribchester is the main danger, having already beaten Galileo Gold twice. I don’t think Somehow is quite up to this, somehow!
CARTIER ANOTHER GOSDEN JEWEL?
2.05 Newmarket Leshlaa and Call To Mind are still in the Derby and Valcartier has been left in the Eclipse.
Sir Michael Stoute ensured a Royal Ascot runner for The Queen in Dartmouth yesterday. Now William Haggas tries to produce a royal runner for Epsom in Call To Mind.
Valcartier’s sire has an outstanding strike rate for progeny running on good to soft, and this could be another Gosden godsend to punters.
John Gosden has won this race three times and been placed five times from nine runners. BETDAQ offers of 5.4.
3.15 Newmarket Wick Powell and Quench Dolly are from the right ratings slot for this, and both are distance winners.
Quench Dolly has to leap two grades and take a 19lb rise in her stride since launching her hat-trick bid. Like Quench Dolly, Wick Powell has been front running for his success, and these wide open spaces of the Rowley Mile may find them out.
But this applies to most of the field! Poets Princess has also raced freely and failed to make all raised above class 4. We need to see her race because she played up in the stalls on her reappearance. Ekhtiyaar, Eqtiraan and Nautical Haven were yet more front runners as two-year-olds.
Some of them will be able to settle now but there’s no doubt there’ll be a cracking pace on. Eqtiraan settled better last time and was the ‘moral’ over today’s CD, beaten only half a length, giving 7lb to the winner.
Eqtiraan is the only Group-1 entry. His sire, Helmet, was lightning fast and his progeny have done well in UK, particularly showing a good strike rate with cut in the ground. The 8.4 BETDAQ offers this morning looked big despite the weight.
Ekhtiyaar has improved at home since his seasonal debut and is a formidable opponent under Silvestre De Sousa at around 6.0.
4.25 Newmarket This is the last day for the Early Birds list, with King Of Naples – an 8.0 offer on BETDAQ this morning –bowing them out before Fortune Cookies take over.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 30 points, unless stated)
2.05 Newmarket
BET 6.75pts win VALCARTIER
BET 3pts win (stakes saver) CALL TO MIND
2.55 Newbury
BET 3.5pts win DEFOE
BET 3.5pts win TIME TO STUDY
3.15 Newmarket
BET 6pts win EKHTIYAAR
BET 4pts win EQTIRAAN
3.30 Newbury
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 5.8pts win and place (place nap) ACLAIM
4.25 Newmarket
BET 4pts win KING OF NAPLES
DAQ MULTIPLES BIG-RACE DOUBLE: 4 x 3pt win doubles Defoe and Time To Study (2.55 Newbury) with Aclaim and Ribchester (3.30 Newbury)
EARLY BIRDS: MIDTERM (1.50 Newbury) and KING OF NAPLES (4.25 Newmarket)
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