BACK-TO-BACK NAPS IN 335-POINT PROFITS HAUL: The maestro plays on and the takings pour in. Another York double for Daqman yesterday, with Stradivarius landing him back-to-back naps, has his notional wallet bulging to 335 points profit in nine days to recommended stakes.
Thursday
WON 3-1 ROARING LION (Dante Stakes)
WON 2-1 CORONET (York nap of the day)
Friday
WON 7-2 THREADING
WON 4-6 STRADIVARIUS (Yorkshire Cup supernap)
NOW FOUR TIMES AS MANY WINNERS AS PRICEWISE: The two York winners took him to a 25-6 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post for value winners this season in races nominated by him. Daqman is 105 points clear to a single-unit stake (+30 Daqman to -75 Pricewise). Today they clash in the 3.15 Newmarket, and the 3.00 and 3.40 Newbury.
Daqman’s headlines:
VALUE MESSAGE FOR COMMUNIQUE
BEAT THE BANK AT LOCKINGE 11.0
STOUTE HAS GOT THE CRYSTAL OUT
VALUE MESSAGE FOR COMMUNIQUE
3.00 Newbury (London Gold Cup) The low three stalls have won five of the last seven, and Masaarr’s berth in five is hardly an inconvenience as Roger Varian bids for back-to-back wins in the race.
Communique (in 3) is entitled to turn around Chelmsford form with Dukhan, who should close down He’s Amazing on Newmarket running at the revised weights. He’s Amazing had Chief Ironside well behind at Newbury.
Mekong went on from that Chelmsford race (only fourth) to score from the front at Leicester but that was on heavy ground.
So, if all things were equal (some hopes among improving three-year-olds!) and collateral form worked out, then Communique is value at 11.5 in the BETDAQ orange, with the money horse, Masaarr, as saver.
3.15 Newmarket Richard Fahey has won this twice since 2011, defying the form book each time.
And my man in the long grass tells me that the fast ground will bring big improvement from Showmethedough, 8.2 best on BETDAQ this morning.
BEAT THE BANK AT LOCKINGE 11.0
3.40 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes) Stalls 3, 4, 5 and 6 have won every one of the last eight, and older horses – over the age of five – have blanked in the decade.
Such is the formidable task facing the six-year-old Limato from gate 11.
Not to mention that the July Cup (6f) and Foret (7f) winner has raced just once before over a mile. That was in the 2016 Lockinge when he was only fourth.
The draw (stall 16) is also against Lincoln Handicap and Sandown Mile winner Addeybb, and the ground is a worry, while another progressive animal, Beat The Bank, is from a stable in modest form (2-45).
All this negative stuff suggests that Aidan O’Brien’s four horses will be England’s apocalypse: but which of (in official-ratings order) Deauville 119, Lancaster Bomber 117, Rhododendron 116 and War Decree 110 is the best bet to win? All have done well on firm ground.
War Decree appears to fall short of this company and, though Lancaster Bomber has done well travelling to find rock-hard surfaces, he won’t get that on watered turf in England and has only ever won once, his maiden, which is always a bad sign.
Similarly, Deauville is only Group-3 in England and Ireland, with the Grade-1 Belmont Derby (on lightning fast ground) his sole success at the highest level.
Rhododendron hasn’t won over a mile since her two-year-old days and her best victory over 1m 2f on the soft at Chantilly doesn’t speak volumes for today’s fast mile.
I return to Beat The Bank (rated 118). On lines through Forest Ranger, he should have a figure in front of Deauville, which would put him at least on a par with Limato, whose Group-1 form is at 6f.
Beat the Bank has won three times after a break and may be he doesn’t need all that much work and isn’t so stable dependent.
STOUTE HAS GOT THE CRYSTAL OUT
4.50 Newbury Stream Song struggled to win in a class-4 handicap in slow time at Windsor and Sea of Class showed worrying temperament (flashed tail) on her debut.
John Gosden says that Stream Song wasn’t quite right at Windsor but nevertheless reaches for the cheekpieces now, and there was no money for her this morning at 6.0 early mouse.
So we must surely go along with Crystal Hope at marginally better than evens on BETDAQ.
Crystal Hope, bidding to complete a Stoute stable double after Crystal Ocean (3.25), drew clear of the subsequent. Musidora winner when they met at Sandown.
8.20 Doncaster Roger Varian has a 31% record with three-year-olds-plus on Town Moor and my man in the long grass says that Monadee (5.7 BETDAQ offers early mouse) is much better than his mark for his opening handicap after a wind op.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newbury (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win JULIET CAPULET
3.00 Newbury (win 30)
BET 3pts win and place COMMUNIQUE
BET 2pts win (stakes saver) MASAARR
3.15 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win and place SHOWMETHEDOUGH
3.40 Newbury (win 30)
BET 3pts win and place BEAT THE BANK
4.15 Newbury (win 20)
BET 6pts win AL MUFTI
4.50 Newbury (SP supernap)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win CRYSTAL HOPE
8.20 Doncaster
BET 4.25pts win MONADEE
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