50 POINTS PROFIT ON DAY OF FIVE WINNERS WITH A SUPERNAP UP: Daqman was in devastating form yesterday with five winners, including three in a row at Newbury and a 4-5 supernap for 50.15 profit on the day. His supernap restored their 50% strike rate.
WON 13-2 SEVARANO
WON 6-1 FANION D’ESTRUVAL
(2ND SULLY D’OC AA for 46-1 CSF with Ladbrokes)
WON 3-1 SON OF CAMAS
WON 4-5 CHAMP (supernap)
WON 8-15 PAISLEY PARK
Daqman 7, Pricewise 2 (+88.30 to -45.00)
Bull’s-eye bets 57% (+ 88.95 from 4-7)
Bulls-eye naps 50% (+ 256pts from 8-16)
Naps 55% (+ 45.01 from 10-18)
Supernaps 50% (- 03.50 from 3-6)
* recommended stakes except all naps 10pts win; supernaps 20pts
LADBROKES TROPHY THE FEATURE FOR BIG-VALUE BETS AT NEWBURY: It’s a day of massive value on BETDAQ, with big-odds fancy in races of low overrounds, a strong line-up for bull’s-eye bets, featuring the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury. Headlines:
🔹 EVENS FLORESSA TO FLOURISH
🔹 YOU LIKE 17.0 BETDAQ VALUE?
🔹 SOUL CAN SING AGAIN AT 13.0
🔹 BORICE BIG ON BETDAQ AT 20.0
EVENS FLORESSA TO FLOURISH
12.05 Newbury (Ladbrokes Mares Novices Hurdle) Four favourites in five years have won this, including La Bague Au Roi, trained by Warren Greatrex, who is hoping for another top-class mare in dual bumper winner, Martha Brae.
Last year’s winning trainer, Paul Nicholls, runs five-wins-from-seven Silver Forever but that one was lucky to beat a hampered Floressa on today’s course three weeks back and the grey mare is 3lb worse off today with her penalty.
Whenever Floressa went beyond evens on BETDAQ this morning, I pinched the liquidity. In five of the seven races the orange total percentage was between 103 and 110%.
Yesterday’s total SPs at Newbury opened at 131% (that’s not nice) and ended the day on 134% (immediately after two odds-on favourites went in, that was to be expected).
12.40 Newbury (Ladbrokes Novices Chase) Colin Tizzard launched Native River, Thistlecrack and Elegant Escape to win this in consecutive years (2015-17) under three different jockeys.
A fourth rider, Robbie Power, could land a fourth Tizzard victory with Reserve Tank this afternoon. The grade-1 hurdles winner swerved yesterday’s novice chase when this looked carved up for him.
Yesterday he would have given 5lb to the 152-rated Champ. Today he gives 5lb to the 142-rated Ardlethen. It’s a no-brainer!
YOU LIKE 17.0 BETDAQ VALUE?
1.15 Newbury (Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Chase) Though the stats reveal 8-10 winners aged seven at the most, this is a race mainly of older horses, including the morning favourite, soft-ground-lover Westend Story, who seems to be the choice of Richard Johnson over Jerrysback.
The 10-year-old, Sametegal, we haven’t seen for 665 days. Bennys King was disappointing on his reappearance; if he needed the run, why was he 3-1 favourite?
Perhaps, though eight, As You Like deserves consideration: he has been steadily progressive, improving 31lb since his first open handicap, kept mainly to good ground. But he’s never raced on a Grade-1 track.
Larry is only six and was well supported when books opened, as the ground continues to dry out for him. The Sandown field of his Spring success has not proved to be of any quality but he’s only six. If only Gary Moore had struck some form.
I shall split my pound between As You Like (BETDAQ 17.0) and the injury-prone Sametegal (BETDAQ 8.6), who has an excellent record fresh, simply because he is a classy animal when he’s right.
SOUL CAN SING AGAIN AT 13.0
1.50 Newbury (Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle) After yesterday’s victory for Champers On Ice, there was early money for another Pipe hurdler, Nordic Combined, off bottomweight but he’s never won a hurdle race.
In fact, he was one of nine out of 10 at the front of the morning market set to carry less than 11st, yet the stats say that all winners have carried 11st 3lb or more and usually see off the lightweights for speed.
The weights today are suppressed by Soul Emotion (11st 12lb). Though he faded into fifth in the Long Walk at Ascot almost a year ago, he was leading at today’s trip, and conceding to Paisley Park was an accolade in defeat, after another championship performance by Paisley Park yesterday.
It may not remain soft enough for Downtown Getaway who, like stablemate The Cashel Man, needs further. But any one of the Henderson light weights could step up; you never know until tricky Nicky grins at the cameras.
The BETDAQ 8.8 offer Dan McGrue (holds Mr Pumblechook) impressed on the last day and also I’m going with Soul Emotion, recovered from his enormous wobble of last season and the only known top-line hurdler in the field.
He won’t be here for a test run; his stable doesn’t work like that: it’s all or nothing at 13.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
2.25 Newbury (Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle) It will be a big surprise if Nicky Henderson can’t win this with his three-star attack,.
The Waley-Cohen’s acquired the mare Elusive Belle (BETDAQ 5.7) from a Gowran bumper and nursed her along nicely in the Spring. Heading for fences but could pick up a good handicap over hurdles along the way.
French Crusader will also be jumping fences soon and this is a mission to see if his head is right (‘he got tricky’ after he won at Newbury last year).
The one of the trio I want to be on is Epatante (6.2), who has been ‘stunning’ at home, the J P McManus mare having blossomed during the summer break.
BORICE BIG ON BETDAQ AT 20.0
3.00 Newbury (Ladbrokes Trophy) In a rerun of last year’s placed horses, Elegant Escape (2nd), Dingo Dollar (3rd), Beware The Bear (4th) and West Approach (5th), the handicapper now has Elegant Escape and Dingo Dollar weighted to dead-heat.
But success at Cheltenham last month has West Approach arguably an 8lb better horse, and a shorter price than Elegant Escape as the two try to emulate last year’s winner, Sizing Tennessee, for Team Tizzard.
Third and fourth Tizzard contenders are Robinsfirth (but he’s 10 now) and Mister Malarky, the same age as Native River, when he won it for them in 2016, following up in the Welsh Grand National and subsequently in the Gold Cup.
Within a winning weights band of 11st 1lb to 11st 6lb (six wins in the last seven years) are On The Blind Side, Ok Corral and De Rasher Counter, alongside Mister Malarky.
Ok Corral was unlucky in the NH Chase at Cheltenham, a race which threw up both Native River and Sizing Tennessee. Ok Corral and Elegant Escape are the only entries for the King George.
The Irish raiders look powerful, led by Munster National winner Cabaret Queen, but a mare hasn’t won this for 60 years.
I put up Gordon Elliottt’s Borice for this in my preview. This has been the target ever since he won the Galway Plate. He has swerved the Troytown to wait for it.
Verdict: Eight of the last nine winners were younger than nine. The drying ground will suit Dingo Dollar (BETDAQ 12.0) in first-time visor, while Mister Malarky (14.5) and Borice (20.0) have always had this as their long-term plan.
12.05 Newbury (supernap)
BET 20pts win FLORESSA
1.15 Newbury (bull’s-eye bets to win 50 each, place to win 10)
BET 6.5pts win SAMETEGAL
BET 3pts win and 2.5pts place AS YOU LIKE
1.50 Newbury (bull’s-eye bets to win 50 each))
BET 6.5pts win DAN McGRUE
BET 4pts win SOUL EMOTION
2.25 Newbury (each to win 30)
BET 6.25pts win ELUSIVE BELLE
BET 5.75pts win EPATANTE
3.00 Newbury (bull’s-eye bets to win 50 each, place to win 10)
BET 4.5pts win DINGO DOLLAR
BET 3.75pts win MISTER MALARKY
BET 2.5pts win and place BORICE
3.20 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win CAPTAIN CHAOS
3.40 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win MAGIC SAINT
5pts win treble
Floressa 12.05 Newbury
Reserve Tank 12.40 Newbury
Buveur d’Air 2.05 Newcastle
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