8.6 BETDAQ BET COULD TOPPLE MULLINS ATTACK: Daqman’s Willie Mullins nap, Riven Light (2nd 11-2), just failed to catch one from the Classic generation yesterday. Today Willie tries again to reach the pinnacle at Haydock this afternoon but Daqman, who landed the Ballyogan with Soffia (WON 11-4), has his doubts and rates an 8.6 bet in opposition. His nap is at Newmarket, and his standings are:
Supernaps: 12 out of 13
Daqman 27, Pricewise 14
Bull’s-eye naps (3-5) 143 points up
🔹 OVER THE MOON ABOUT FAHEY FILLY
🔹 PILASTER POISED TO STAR IN SELFIE
🔹 MANKIB 5.0 A SAFE BET OF THE DAY
🔹 STRONG SPIRIT CAN TIP THE BOTTLE
OVER THE MOON ABOUT FAHEY FILLY
2.00 Beverley (Hilary Needler Trophy) The 5f at Beverley is a tough test but Richard Fahey, who won this last year, thinks Moon Of Love, is up to winning it on her debut and landing a hat-trick in the race for her owners.
The £30,000 yearling had breeze-up buyers mooning over her, and they went to £140,000 to secure the daughter of Kodiac. Now we can moon over her price this morning! 6.0 offers on BETDAQ.
Another Kodiac, Execlusive is a CD winner but second, third and fourth have all been beaten since, and more have let down Rose Of Kildare’s form than the single winner that finished behind her.
2.10 Newmarket I fancied Flashcard at Goodwood but he got into one of those jostling matches on the hill, and ended up the beaten favourite. I reckon there can be no excuse this time, with a likely strong pace that will open doors, but will the 6f winner get the trip in a charge up the July Course?
Blown By Wind is a Mark Johnston leader but has won only sprints so far, and Awe, who also takes a keen hold, was disappointing when there was rain about at Ascot three weeks ago, receiving a lump of weight.
Riviera Nights is the ‘hidden horse’, a Kingman gradually raising his game, dropping back in trip here but capable of making all the running over a mile as a youngster.
What appeals is this fast-run race over the seven, and the influence for soft ground on the dam’s side which has yet to be tested.
Riviera Nights was around 17.0 on BETDAQ early mouse but was in to around 10.0 by 10.o’clock. I’ll claim 11.0. Happy with that and happy to see the gamble!
PILASTER POISED TO STAR IN SELFIE
2.25 Haydock True Self was only a shade of odds on this morning but how many will drop out of the mudbath? Highgarden had gone – and so had some of the True Self fractions – by the time I was ready to despatch this copy to be uploaded.
Then I checked out the mare’s three Listed wins in a row. Sounds good but we have seen absolutely nothing from the placed horses in those races since.
I found that Pilaster’s family has a sound strike rate on soft-heavy, and she has already won a Group 2. Can she return to form here for Roger Varian and the Cheveley Park Stud?
Final check, and True Self has shrunk to 1.63 and, with the form doubts about her, and her giving away two years to Pilaster, the BETDAQ 8.6 the Varian filly looked huge.
STRONG SPIRIT CAN TIP THE BOTTLE
2.45 Newmarket Loose ground was the excuse when Hareeq was beaten on the Rowley Mile course here over today’s trip of 1m 6f, and that could happen again, with rain falling on the firm surface.
Winner and third that day, Lissitzky and Fire Jet, are now equalised by an adjustment in the weights. The handicapper has also had the chance to create a level playing field from the Goodwood form of What A Welcome and Amazing Red, who won this race last year (9lb higher today).
Spirit Ridge (a tasty 6.2 this morning), who looked decent last season, showed he had wintered well but that he needed today’s extra quarter mile on his Rowley Mile course reappearance.
Melting Dew was a long way behind him that day, and seems to need further now. I took a bit of the 25-1 available with Corals and Ladbrokes for the Northumberland Plate before his likely running a better race today.
MANKIB 5.0 A SAFE BET OF THE DAY
3.35 Haydock (John Of Gaunt Stakes) You need a big price if you’re planning on a bet outside stalls 1, 2, 3, since they’ve won it seven times in eight years, from a four-year-old at 7-4 favourite to an eight-year-old seemingly with ‘no chance’ at 33-1.
But is that draw all that it seems? You have Safe Voyage, the favourite, in stall three today but a pair with ‘no chance’ in one and two, Burnt Sugar and Shepherd Market.
Safe Voyage is going for a Haydock hat-trick with two wins already in the Spring, one from stall 14 of 14 in a handicap on soft ground. By the draw criterion today, that took a lot of doing. Or does that prove the seeming bias is a nonsense?
Burnt Sugar, from a stable in form, likes to come off a strong pace and has high-level handicap form at Ascot, Doncaster, Goodwood, Leopardstown and on the Newmarket July course, but will he like the ground? No way, say BETDAQ layers, offering 44.0 this morning.
Breton Rock, Mitchum Swagger, Suedois and Snazzy Jazzy (sprint form only) have all won on soft-heavy.
Breton Rock and Suedois both hold Mitchum Swagger on form but are behind Safe Voyage and Mankib (handicapped to dead-heat today) and that pair should dominate, with Mankib the value at BETDAQ 5.0 against Safe Voyage’s 2.72, as I write.
* No bull’s-eye bets or supernaps today because of the rain
2.00 Beverley (win 30)
BET 6pts win MOON OF LOVE
2.10 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 3pts win and place RIVIERA NIGHTS
2.25 Haydock (win 30)
BET 4pts win and place PILASTER
2.45 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 5.75pts win (nap) SPIRIT RIDGE
3.35 Haydock (win 30)
BET 7.5 pts win MANKIB
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