5-1 WINNER FINDS DAQMAN 309 POINTS UP: Yet again, Daqman took the lead over Pricewise at a big festival meeting, when he scored yesterday with Muffri’ha (WON 5-1), taking his lead to 76-18 this season, now 309 points clear of his rival to single-unit stakes. Daqman’s had seven strikes in two days:
WON 5-1 MUFFRI’HA (Friday)
WON 7-2 RASTRELLI (Thursday)
WON 9-4 THRAVE (Friday)
WON 11-8 ELARQAM (20-point super nap Thursday)
2ND 16-1 KNIGHT OWL (win and place Thursday)
3RD 14-1 BRONZE ANGEL (win and place, 25.0 BETDAQ, Thursday)
4TH 12-1 CHIEOFCHIEFS (win and place, 14.0 BETDAQ Friday)
NELSON TO MAKE HEADLINES AS SUPER NAP: Today’s challenge to Pricewise covers the 2.05 and 3.15 Haydock, and the 2.20 and 3.35 Newmarket. Daqman’s headlines, with Nelson the Super Nap:
Big Blow To Gold Cup Hopes (French Gold Cup)
Keep A Classic Eye On Nelson (Three top 2yo tests)
15.5 And 26.0 Offers Are Huge (Ayr Gold Cup restaged)
Linguistic Laid Out For This (The Cambridgeshire)
BIG BLOW TO GOLD CUP HOPES
Orange hopes squashed. The Racing Post boasts ‘more than 200 experts behind you.’ Where were they when the decision was taken to lead the front page on Big Orange for today’s Prix Du Cadran at Chantilly?
He was always a doubtful runner because of the rain in France and was never going to win in the conditions. By 8.13 a.m., before many punters even saw that front page, the Post’s website had to report: Big Orange out.
This French Gold Cup always seemed gifted to Vazirabad to make it 13 wins from 16 starts. He prefers a shorter trip but was beaten only a neck in this last year, his only race beyond the minimum, and it’s hard to see what can hold him here.
High Jinx (Tim Easterby) hasn’t won since taking the Cadran in 2014 but was beaten only half a length for the Yorkshire Cup on soft ground in May. It was 15.0 bar the two this morning.
KEEP A CLASSIC EYE ON NELSON
1.50 Newmarket (Royal Lodge Stakes) Only an occasional Classic guide – Benny The Dip (1996) and Frankel (2010) – since Shirley Heights 40 years ago.
But, on collateral form, Ballydoyle’s Nelson can claim to be on a par with his stablemate, current Derby favourite Saxon Warrior, since Kew Gardens was three lengths behind both. Delano Roosevelt confirms the form, also placed behind both.
2.20 Newmarket (Cheveley Park Stakes) Clemmie tries to cement the Ballydoyle position for the fillies’ Classics. But I remember French raiders, Natagora (2007) and Special Duty (2009), both going on from this to win the 1,000 Guineas.
And the trend could be revived by hat-trick winner Different League, third against the colts in the Prix Morny, and described in France as ‘exceptional.’
Churchill’s sister Clemmie leads the field for Ireland after winning Group races at The Curragh and at Newmarket but she was pulled out of the heavy-ground Moyglare and seems to want a sound surface.
Threading for England made it two out of two on the soft when taking the Lowther Stakes at York. But collateral form shouts Different League.
When the French filly sprang a surprise in the Albany, she had Madeline fifth (more than four lengths behind) and Clemmie seventh before Madeline was beaten less than two lengths by Threading at York.
I’m heartened by the fact that the Racing Post expert – one of the 200 – who wrote the preview to this race (page 6) doesn’t even mention Different League (BETDAQ offers of 6.6 this morning).
2.55 Newmarket (Middle Park Stakes) It was 1970 when the magnificent Brigadier Gerard won this and, apart from Irish Guineas winner Rodrigo De Triano 25 years ago, the Middle Park is more a guide to top sprinters. But it’s a very strong race this year.
If Different League goes close in the Cheveley Park, that’s a boost for Karl Burke’s Unfortunately, who beat her in the Morny.
Collaterally between the July Stakes and the Gimcrack, Sands Of Mali holds Cardsharp, US Navy Flag and Rajasinghe.
But yet another Ballydoyle colt, Sioux Nation (by Scat Daddy by an Oasis Dream mare), has beaten Beckford, US Navy Flag and Cardsharp.
It seems very much a question of which one will like the soft ground or, if there’s a champion among them, which one can overcome the soft ground. Sands Of Mali (5.0 on BETDAQ) and Unfortunately (6.6) have both shown an aptitude to some cut.
15.5 AND 26.0 OFFERS ARE HUGE
2.05 Haydock With Andrew Balding on four wins from his last eight starters, the Cambridgeshire defector Isomer, first of 13 runners for the stable today, is just the sort, lightly raced this season, to spring a surprise at a big price.
Three-year-olds have won the race eight times in the decade, and Isomer drops from Group level. Runner-up to Churchill in the Chesham as a juvenile. Offers of 15.5 on BETDAQ are huge.
3.15 Haydock (Ayr Gold Cup) A £56,000-to-the-winner sprint staged to replace the Ayr Gold Cup. Johnny Barnes won on heavy as a juvenile and might have been involved in the finish of the Ayr Gold Cup last year but for being hampered out of it.
An 8.6 offer on BETDAQ early mouse, Johnny is now 7lb better off with the second, Growl, but faces a tough opponent in Mr Lupton, who was not disgraced in the Haydock Sprint on heavy behind Harry Angel. Far too big at 26.0.
Sainted won’t mind the ground but this is a bit different to the fillies-only handicaps she’s been winning. Shanghai Glory beat a big field at The Curragh and was fifth (hampered) in the Stewards Cup but Charles Hills’ gelding is now 11lb higher than for his last handicap success.
LINGUISTIC LAID OUT FOR THIS
3.35 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire Handicap) See Wednesday’s ABC guide to those that fit the stats.
In my Cambridgeshire previews in the summer, I named Linguistic and El Hayem as having been laid out for this race. We have to qualify every analysis today with a proviso on how much rain falls on already good-to soft (soft) ground here.
El Hayem has already had excuses made for him because of soft ground but I think John Gosden’s comment about Linguistic is a bit tongue-in-cheek, a bit Aidan O’Brien (‘he’s had some time off but this is the right starting point for him’). On soft ground, he’ll be catching them late.
Very lightly raced, out of the frame only once when attempting Group-2 Royal Ascot Derby (King Edward V11 Stakes) last season, he was beaten a neck over Easter in Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton after being gelded.
Brorocco got his revenge at Newbury on soft-ground winner Eddystone Rock who had beaten him at York but the weights have now swung the other way.
Eddystone Rock (hampered) is also better off with Thundering Blue on their form on the July Course, and with Big Country at York.
The ex-Andre-Fabre gelding Qassem is upsides El Hayem on form but has proved he can win on the soft.
Rosebery Stakes winner Big Country also scored at York in June and improved again when second in the John Smith’s Cup at York.
VERDICT: The short-list is Big Country, Brorocco, Eddystone Rock, El Hayem, Linguistic, Qassem. The value pick is Linguistic (14.5 on BETDAQ) with the best long-shot Eddystone Rock (45.0).
El Hayem (18.5) has to be backed at reduced stakes, just in case the course misses today’s rain.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ offers, unless stated)
1.50 Newmarket (SP)
SUPER NAP: BET 20pts win NELSON
2.05 Haydock
BET 2pts win and place ISOMER
2.20 Newmarket
BET 5.25pts win and place DIFFERENT LEAGUE
2.55 Newmarket
BET 6pts win SANDS OF MALI
BET 5pts win UNFORTUNATELY
3.15 Haydock
BET 4pts win JOHNNY BARNES
BET 1.25pts win and place MR LUPTON
3.35 Newmarket (win-50 bull’s eye bets)
BET 3.75pts win and place LINGUISTIC
BET 1pt win and place EDDYSTONE ROCK
BET (to win 30) 1.75pts win and place EL HAYEM
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