DAQMAN HAS A SUPERNAP BUT IT’S NOT THE FAVOURITE IN THE 2,000: The Guineas are here at last! Daqman sees today’s 2,000 as a choice between early-established Arizona and Pinatubo and late developers last season, Kameko and Royal Dornoch. He’s going for the big prices and a lay on the favourite but says: ‘We simply don’t know what’s trained on and at what level until they run, so good luck to those who bet odds-on about a favourite! I think that only applies to absolute standouts, which is where my supernap comes in!’
🔹 HE’S THE SECOND ROARING LION
🔹 ANOTHER ROYAL FOR MARQUAND
🔹 BLUE SHOULD SHADE THE SPRINT
🔹 JOHNSTON BAGGED THE SAGARO
HE’S THE SECOND ROARING LION
Don’t recognise the results? Only a month on from when we should have run the Guineas but, as a sunshine Spring has brought improvement to young horses at home, racing on the track itself is having to play catch-up.
The punter is left bewildered by results and, even if we were allowed to fill the stands, many winners would be greeted in stony silence.
We can only look at last year’s results, mix them on the palette with trainers in form, and try to create a value picture.
My two against the field in the Guineas today are Kameko and Royal Dornoch. I watched Kameko dismiss THREE Ballydoyle colts – Innisfree, Year of The Tiger and Mogul – in the Futurity at Newcastle.
Earlier he’d gone clear of another, Iberia, and again Year of The Tiger (who is, therefore, benchmark for the form) in the Royal Lodge here at Newmarket.
But the Royal Lodge was not done with: yet another O’Brien colt, Royal Dornoch, who had seemingly given way to Kameko two out, stayed on the better and beat them all.
The Coolmore ‘Lads’ have invested heavily in the speed stallion No Nay Never, who has produced Arizona and Wichita for this race, and today’s the day that will tell all.
But I like the Gleneagles product – out of a Tommy Stack Danehill Dancer mare – in the shape of Royal Dornoch, and believe he’ll do battle again with Kameko, by the sire of Roaring Lion and looking remarkably like him. They are two 10-furlong types who will grab hold of the pace at the business end.
ANOTHER ROYAL FOR MARQUAND
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (2,000 Guineas) I took 49.0 Royal Dornoch and 11.5 Kameko on BETDAQ as the first win-50 bull’s-eye bets of the new season. I laid Pinatubo at 1.83 for a double whammy on the first Classic..
1️⃣ ROYAL DORNOCH The late improver of the Ballydoyle outfit last autumn. Didn’t start out until nearly two months after Arizona and Pinatubo, and I liked the way he came back at Kameko to take the Royal Lodge.
This would be a massive step forward for jockey Tom Marquand, whose exploits at Randwick with such as Addeybb had him dubbed The Wonder Down Under during our late winter and early Spring.
Tom is in super-confident mood after cruising to victory in very fast time in yesterday’s Lingfield Derby Trial on English King, a son of Camelot, and Aidan O’Brien must have been delighted by the resurgence of Anthony Van Dyck, second in the Coronation Cup.
2️⃣ KAMEKO Similarly improved in the second half of last season; not seen until late July. Put the Royal Lodge behind him when he ran away with the Futurity. Stable already in form and champion Oisin Murphy ‘truly excited’ about the ride ‘on the second Roaring Lion.’
3️⃣ ARIZONA Coventry winner who closed down Pinatubo between seconds in the National Stakes and the Dewhurst, and could have grown past him during the close season.
4️⃣ PINATUBO Unbeaten in six starts, including the Chesham, National Stakes and Dewhurst, lines up here rated 10lb higher than anything else in the field. Such precocious animals either stay at the top, or bomb!
They train on as a champion would, or feel the strain and get left behind by late developers; no middle way. And that’s no way for punters to bet.
Charlie Appleby, who had scored only with a class-5 two-year-old this week, produced the five-year-old Ghaiyyath to tear their hearts out in the Coronation Cup yesterday, and Renaissance Queen finally got his three-year-olds off the mark, so no excuses.
5️⃣ KINROSS There were good reports about Kinross (fifth to Kameko in the Futurity), and I took a bit of 17.0 before he was traded down to 13.5 on BETDAQ.
But members of Ralph Beckett’s team have failed to get within five or six lengths of the winner in all bar one of 10 attempts since racing resumed, among them a favourite beaten more than six lengths on the opening day here at Newmarket on Thursday, and Kinross was out again to 18.5 this morning.
BLUE SHOULD SHADE THE SPRINT
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes) Based on yesterday’s results, best drawn are Dark Shot, Moss Gill, Ornate, Shades Of Blue, The Cruising Lord.
On ratings, Judicial, Major Jumbo, Moss Gill, Shades Of Blue. On trainerform, Queen’s Gift and Hareem Queen.
The grey front-runner Major Jumbo was third in this last year; another front-runner Ornate fifth; and Judicial seventh. Judicial should beat Queen’s Gift on their Beverley Bullet 1-2 but is eight years old now.
Shades Of Blue fits the stats and her second to the Abbaye winner makes her a standout: BETDAQ 6.3. Far Above ‘could be anything’, unexposed after just four runs. Started out over further until his speed was recognised: BETDAQ 4.7.
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Dahlia Fillies’ Stakes) It would be unusual for a five-year-old (Magic Lily) to beat the four-year-olds. Terebellum has been seen mainly on soft but is lightly raced and has won a Group 2.
Queen Power’s being beaten for stamina in the Ribblesdale made this 1m 2f an obvious target for a trainer who has won the race six times: BETDAQ 4.0 taken.
JOHNSTON BAGGED THE SAGARO
⭕ 2.40 Newcastle (Sagaro Stakes) Very tight, with six horses rated between 111 and 115. Pitman’s Derby winner here, Withhold goes well fresh. He’s seven now, but first-time blinkers could sharpen him up.
Mildenberger (BETDAQ 6.5) has been placed in five Group-2 without winning. This is a grade lower and trainer Mark Johnston has had eight winners since the resumption. Johnston also runs St Leger third, Nayef Road (BETDAQ 9.6), who has not won beyond 1m 4f.
Royal Line has scored up to Group-3 level at 1m 4f; another who goes well fresh; another from a stable in form.
Ispolini had a good season in Meydan last year but has yet to translate that form to a better class of racing in England or Ireland.
Twice placed in the Melbourne Cup but that’s a particular kind of grass race, and he doesn’t have home form of any interest since runner-up here at Newcastle in the Pitman’s Derby of 2018.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket Waldkonig was in my abortive Fortune Cookies for 2020 made out before the lockdown. The half-brother to Arc winner Waldgeist can justify his 10-1 position in the Derby market.
1.50 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win FAR ABOVE
BET 3.75pts win SHADES OF BLUE
2.25 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 6.5pts win QUEEN POWER
2.40 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win MILDENBERGER
BET 2.25pts win NAYEF ROAD
3.00 Newmarket (supernap)
BET 20pts win WALDKONIG
3.35 Newmarket (win 50, place win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5pts win and place KAMEKO
BULL’S-EYE BET: 1pt win and 2pts place ROYAL DORNOCH
LAY 5pts PINATUBO
FORTUNE COOKIES: Arizona, Kinross (3.35 Newmarket)
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