NOMAN’S LANDED 13-2 NAP FOR DAQMAN: Daqman limbered up for the Nationals (Scottish today and Aintree next Saturday) with a 13-2 nap yesterday. He had two winners and two place bets on Friday for a profit on the day of 25.75, making nine returns in five days.
WON 13-2 NOMAN (Friday nap)
WON 9-4 BEAKSTOWN (Friday, from BETDAQ 4.3)
WON (2nd 17-2) MOTOWN MAGGIE (Friday, place win 10)
Level (3rd 17-2) COPPER COIN (Friday, place cover)
WON 13-8 THE QUESTIONNER (Thursday, from BETDAQ 4.3)
WON 2-5 MALIBOO (Wednesday nap, from BETDAQ 2.1)
WON 11-8 NAJEEBA (Tuesday)
WON 11-8 GIAVELLOTTO (Monday)
WON 10-3 SHOW MAKER (Monday, from BETDAQ 6.5)
🏴 SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL: Today’s DAQMAN 50-point bets.
🏴 AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL: TOMORROW AND ALL NEXT WEEK
O’BRIEN THAUNE IN THE SIDE
⚠️ HEADS UP You can see the action without setting foot in England today. They’re jumping round four miles of Ayr but the future is Irish – isn’t it always – as three-year-old colts and fillies face the first Classic trials of the season.
Last year’s 2,000 test (2.35 Leopardstown) went to Jim Bolger’s subsequent Newmarket Guineas winner, Poetic Flare.
Today’s challenger to Aidan O’Brien (four wins in a row 2016-1019) is seemingly Ger Lyons, with Phoenix Stakes runner-up, Dr Zempf, but Jim Bolger goes for a hat-trick in the race via McTigue, course winner over further and not at home on the soft ground of the Futurity at Doncaster.
But, after O’Brien’s 50% start to the campaign (5-10) I shall expect the top-of-the-ground CD winner, Glounthaune.
A low draw will help in a bigger field for the 1,000 trial (3.10), where Ger Lyons’ Sacred Bridge, out of the one stall, tackles the O’Brien hope, Contarelli Chapel (drawn 8).
TWO STRONG WORDS FOR MOT
⭕ 1.35 Newbury Last Saturday’s Lincoln double in England and Ireland was landed by horses having their first run for a new stable.
The grey Nicky Henderson winner, Mot A Mot, jumps his his first hurdles today since switched to Sam Thomas.
Goes well fresh and geed up to do so again, getting a stone off the favourite and fitted with tongue-tie after a wind op. Jockey Charlie Deutsch is another bonus.
TITLE HANDED BACK TO ANNA
⭕ 2.25 Ayr (Scottish Champion Hurdle) This is a handicap intended to equalise but last year’s one-two, Milkwood and Anna Bunina, are completely off-sync, with Milkwood, who gave 7lb a year ago, now giving 20lb, though there was less than four lengths between them.
The reason is largely Milkwood’s second in the Grade-A Galway Hurdle in Ireland last summer, while Anna Bunina has been in moderate form over here in England this year, shedding 8lb in the process.
But, again, her recent English form puts her well in command on these terms: beaten six lengths in the County Hurdle at Musselburgh in February, she is now 15lb better off with the winner, Socialist Agenda.
West Cork, whose winning form is on soft ground, has excelled at Cheltenham, winning the Greatwood in November and fourth in the County Hurdle last month.
West Cork was behind Onemorefortheroad at Ascot in December but suffered an overreach to his right fore during the race.
We don’t know how good is the novice Barrichello; we’ll find out only from this race. We do know that Sue Smith won this with a five-year-old novice off 10st 4lb in 2018.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: 1 Anna Bunina, 2 West Cork, 3 Barrichello
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 6.7 Anna Bunina, 8.6 Barrichello
GROUNDS TO GET ON TERRIER
⭕ 2.45 Newbury (Mares Novices’ Hurdle Final) This column had a nice touch on Annie Mc (WON 8-1) in this race three years back, completing a quality winners hat-trick after Snow Leopardess and Roksana.
While these mares are still lightly raced and rated in a Limited handicap, it’s unusual to pick one on 11st 5lb as we did with Annie Mc but, in contrast to the National later on the card, claiming made the difference.
With Jonjo O’Neill Jr taking off 5lb (Annie Mc) and Bridget Andrews 3lb (Roksana), it means there has been no winner in the decade with more than 11st and, incidentally, only one 7yo.
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: I intended fielding against Speech Bubble, who had been strongly supported after her second to subsequent Cheltenham winner, Love Envoi, but that was the last leg of a heavy-ground hat-trick. It will be good to soft at worst today.
Though Speech Bubble has been withdrawn, her love Envoi race may still hold the key. Nina The Terrier was third after looking poised to figure in the finish. She couldn’t accelerate again in deep mud but was set to be 9lb better off on a soundish surface today.
Front-runner Nextdoortoalice held on for places behind Coreys Courage (also withdrawn) and Holly Hartingo. Not only does the Alex Hales stable know what to aim at but it won the race last year.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: 1 Nina The Terrier, 2 Nextdoortoalice, 3 Holly Hartingo.
BETDAQ value: 4.4 Nina The Terrier, 11.0 Nextdoortoalice.
FANTASTIKAS NATIONAL VALUE
⭕ 3.35 Ayr (Scottish Grand National) STATS and facts guide: Thursday Archive.
In an open Scottish National, this is the question you need answering: Is the race really dominated by novice-chasers whose ratings are saved for a ‘steal’ of the big Ayr prize, as the Press has been telling us?
First answer, these are the novice winners this century: Joe Farrell (2018), Vicente (2016), Godsmejudge (2013), Beshabar (2011), Joes Edge (2005) and Paris Pike (2000).
The hidden answer is that, apart from the odd fluke, only top trainers Alan King, Paul Nicholls and the late Ferdy Murphy have been able to pull off such a trick.
But, thirdly, they didn’t do it with unknown lightweights: the three top-novice winners for King (Godsmejudge), Nicholls (Vicente) and Murphy (Paris Pike) all carried 11st and 11st 3lb., two aged eight and one seven.
This year Ashtown Lad and Major Dundee are with the trainers most likely to, while Jersey Bean has emerged from novice class with a long-distance win at Haydock and will like the ground (where such as Stormy Judge theoretically need rain a plenty). Pity he hasn’t had a more recent run
Fantastikas, one of my Fortune Cookies, who has always looked like a stayer, was third as a novice to L’Homme Presse before winning at Lingfield, and then the last day going well in the Ultima at Cheltenham when raised to a Graded-level handicap.
Daqman’s order in: 1 Fantastikas, 2 Major Dundee, 3 Ashtown Lad, 4 Jersey Bean, 5 Kittys Light, 6 Win My Wings, 7 Innisfree Lad.
BETDAQ value: 12.0 Major Dundee, 14.0 Ashtown Lad and Fantastikas.
1.35 Newbury (win 10)
BET 4pts win MOT A MOT
2.25 Ayr (win 12)
BET 2pts win ANNA BUNINA
BET 1.5pts win BARRICHELLO
2.35 Leopardstown (win 10 nap)
BET 5pts win GLOUNTHAUNE
2.45 Newbury (win 10)
BET 3pts win NINA THE TERRIER
BET 1pt win NEXTDOORTOALICE
3.35 Ayr (win 50 bulls’-eye bets)
BET 4.5pts win MAJOR DUNDEE
BET 3.75pts win ASHTOWN LAD
BET 10pts win FANTASTIKAS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.