1️⃣ BETDAQ VALUE ON ST LEGER DAY AT DONCASTER Offers at the Doncaster St Leger meeting added up to incredibly low overrounds on BETDAQ this morning. At 10.am., there were races totalling 102, 103 and 105%. Compare that with the extra 10% of yesterday’s SPs there at 115, 116 and 117%
2️⃣ BETDAQ VALUE INTRINSIC.. RACE AFTER RACE That means that offers in the races you bet in are all in a value situation. It’s innate. No need to search through all the bookmaker offers!
3️⃣ BETDAQ VALUE: NO COMMISSION! As if that’s not enough, there is 0% commission all day on Saturday’s racing.
1-2-3 DAQMAN FORM PICKS BUT HE’S BACKING THAT VALUE: There’s a 1-2-3 from Daqman on each of the two big races, the Leger and the Irish Champion Stakes, making up a sensational double today, in which he brings the value to the fore.
🔹 DAQMAN 1-2-3 AT THE DOUBLE
🔹 CHROME VALUE FOR DRIVER SEAT
🔹 GETTING AWAY FROM GHAIYYATH
🔹 CHINDIT FORM HAS TRIPLE BOOST
🔹 17.0 FOR PORTLAND STONE VALUE
🔹 FANCY A GAME FORTUNE COOKIE
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3 AT THE DOUBLE
VALUE HEADS UP St Leger Doncaster, 1m 6f, going good. 2019 Logician (John Gosden, Frankie Dettori). Best value this morning:
BETDAQ 6.4 GALILEO CHROME (Read Daqman’s full order-in below)
VALUE HEADS UP Irish Champion Stakes Leopardstown, 1m 2f good. 2019 Magical (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore). Best value this morning:
BETDAQ 8.4 SOTSASS (Read Daqman’s full order-in below)
CHROME VALUE FOR DRIVER SEAT
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster (St Leger) Won six times by Aidan O’Brien. Latest news: Tom Marquand rides Galileo Chrome after Shane Crosse had to quarantine.
1️⃣ PYLEDRIVER has steadily improved 16lb this year, winning the ‘Ascot Derby’ (King Edward V11 Stakes) and the Great Voligeur, the same stepping-stone on the way to his St Leger success taken by Logician last year. Ahead on form but Galileo Chrome is the improver.
2️⃣ GALILEO CHROME Australia colt who travels so very well. As back-to-back 1m 2f winner, it was speculative to try him at 1m 5f at Navan but, ridden clear, he won five lengths. I can’t separate Pyledriver and Galileo Chrome, assuming further improvement from the Irish colt, who looks the value.
3️⃣ MOHICAN HEIGHTS Another Australia colt, beat Subjectivist last summer and was third to Pyledriver (four lengths) in the Ascot Derby. Stumbled at the start of the Epsom Derby and was never seen with a chance. Unexposed after only four starts. Bred to stay.
Santiago His Irish Derby has taken plenty of knocks, including when the third colt home, Dawn Patrol, was again only third in the Listed Vinnie Roe Stakes at Leopardstown, though odds-on favourite.
Hukum Has improved from novice to handicapper to Group-3 winner in just three races since his debut, and is officially rated alongside the Irish Derby winner Santiago on 114.
But he has to have improved more than four lengths since he was beaten by Pyledriver in the Kempton Classic trial in June, and that’s not allowing for Pyledriver’s own stronger form since.
Subjectivist Third to Hukum in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, but eight lengths behind Pyledriver in the Great Voltigeur. Won the Group-3 Ladbrokes March Stakes at Goodwood 15 lengths when stepped up to the Leger distance.
GETTING AWAY FROM GHAIYYATH
⭕ 4.10 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes) Won eight times by Aidan O’Brien. Magical would normally set the pace but O’Brien has three of the six runners today against hot-favourite Ghaiyyath, who is also known for make-all tactics.
1️⃣ GHAIYYATH Unbeaten (11111) in the last year, if you delete his form on very soft ground in the Arc. Five out of six up to around 1m 2f in 2019 and 2020.
His hat-trick this summer began in the Coronation Cup (Anthony Van Dyck second, Stradivarius third), took in defeat of Enable (Japan third) in the Coral-Eclipse), and was completed when, eased down, he gave 3lb to Magical and 7lb to the 2,000 Guineas winner, Kameko, in the York International.
2️⃣ SOTSASS Delete his races on very soft and heavy ground and his first run each season, and he is 1111, including victory in the 2019 French Derby over Persian King, who was devastating in the Prix Du Moulin (1m) on Sunday.
Despite his preference for a sound surface he was third to Waldgeist and Enable on the soft in the Arc (Japan fourth, Magical fifth). Value price but can’t let Ghaiyyath get away from him.
3️⃣ JAPAN Grand Prix de Paris and York International winner last season, Japan has been beaten by Ghaiyyath a similar distance to Magical but, if Magical flags against the favourite’s pace today, or tries to set the fractions herself, then Japan might benefit as the one to be staying on (won twice at 1m 4f).
CHINDIT FORM HAS TRIPLE BOOST
⭕ 1.50 Doncaster (Champagne Stakes) The 2018 winner Too Darn Hot went on to win the Dewhurst but was beaten in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Last year Threat followed up from the Gimcrack but was no threat after.
Albasheer was impressive over course and distance, but the placed horses were lower class. The fourth was a favourite running below par but a winner since.
Chindit (BETDAQ 2.76 as I write) had also debuted with success over today’s course and distance. Second, third and fourth (Saint Lawrence) behind him at Ascot have all scored since, and he looks the one.
Mujbar and State Of Rest have shown their best form on soft ground, but yesterday’s Flying Childers (winner at 40-1) gave fair warning yesterday that nothing is cut and dried in these difficult times.
17.0 FOR PORTLAND STONE VALUE
⭕ 2.25 Doncaster (Portland Handicap) In theory, you are looking at a handicap of 22 runners weighted to finish level, so your pick is 21-1. Form and stats may help to improve those chances.
Low numbers have continued to dominate in the sprints this week but double-figure stalls have won this – a much bigger field – nine years running.
Over the age of five and you don’t win; more than a month off and that can kill your chance, too. The only horse with the negative ‘x’ in both boxes is A Momentofmadness, who won the race in 2018.
But he comes in useful: he was also second last year when trying to make all, so at least the low-to-middle numbers (he’s in 10) should get a good tow.
Particularly as, two stalls away in 8, Meraas is another trail-blazer, value at 16.0 in BETDAQ this morninh.
Led for a long way in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, and should last out this intermediate trip, half a furlong shorter, with the ground in his favour.
It also seemed to suit Soldier’s Minute when he was second of 21 at York recently, with the third Tarboosh, a Listed winner since. Fourth horse Arecibo (14 stall today) seems sure to be towed into the finish but is hard to win with.
Arecibo was beaten only a length in the race last year, and is 7lb lower today. Stone Of Destiny has dropped a similar amount: at 1-23, he is also difficult to win with, but 17.0 makes him more worthwhile.
Right next door to Arecibo is another front-runner, Yimou (gate 13), and Ornate (out of 16) completes the list of pace horses.
FANCY A GAME FORTUNE COOKIE
⭕ 3.10 Leopardstown We’ve seen some very game winners of this in Laurens and Iridessa, the same courage we saw in Fancy Blue’s Nassau and in her revenge on Guineas form with Peaceful in the French Oaks.
Back to a mile today, which could close the gap, and this race has a habit of kicking the obvious into touch, with only one favourite making touchdown in the decade.
Champers Elysees is the improver and Albigna (needs rain) is fancied to bounce back to her two-year-old form. I’ll stand by Fancy Blue, hoping she gets a strong pace.
1.50 Doncaster (supernap)
BET 20pts win CHINDIT
2.25 Doncaster (win 50, place win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.3pts win and place MERAAS
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.3pts win and place STONE OF DESTINY
BET 20pts win FANCY BLUE
3.35 Doncaster (win 50)
BET 9pts win GALILEO CHROME
4.10 Leopardstown (win 50)
BET 6.75pts win SOTSASS
4 x 2.5pts win doubles
PYLEDRIVER, GALILEO CHROME
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