SUPER-SATURDAY BETDAQ VALUE IN THE MUD: Even the red flags for flood warnings are covered in mud but the show goes on in heavy ground at Ascot (Ascot Chase), Haydock (Grand National Trial) and Wincanton (Kingwell Hurdle), with BETDAQ value bets from Daqman at 13.0, 10.5, 9.8, 9.6 and 8.2 with an even-money nap. Headlines:
🔹 HEAVY GROUND EVERYWHERE
🔹 HOBBS NAILS IT FOR McMANUS
🔹 BETDAQ ODDS A PLACE AMIGOS
🔹 IT’S THIRD-TIME LUCKY MALAYA
🔹 SOMEONE OFFER ME ODDS ON!
🔹 KING-SIZE VALUE AT BETDAQ 8.2
DAQMAN’S 657-POINTS PROFIT: LEADS 24-13: Daqman leads Pricewise 24-13 for feature-race winners and is 657.05 points in profit, ahead of 351.08 for Pricewise to 10-point stakes this season.
HEAVY GROUND EVERYWHERE
Same same, only different. Just when we thought it was safe to have a decent bet, the rain tipples down and topples both form and tipsters. It’s ‘heavy’ ground everywhere, but what kind of ‘heavy’ is never certain.
You can actually see some of the races run to an expected result about two flights or fences out, then fatigue sets in and the finish is just one slog for survival.
One piece of good news: the market is showing you the way. So the day’s system seems to be split your stake: early-bird value on BETDAQ and last-half-hour market indicator. If you play in running, not much can come from behind; speed is not the day’s keyword.
⭕ 2.05 Haydock (Rendlesham Hurdle) Lisnagar Oscar sprang a 50-1 surprise in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham but has done not much else, and wind surgery suggests he’s been needing help.
The fourth horse at Cheltenham that day, Emitom, had won the Rendlesham, easily beating Donna’s Diamond, whose poor rating since does nothing for either of them. Emitom has also had wind surgery.
Itchy Feet, third in the 2019 Supreme, reverts to hurdles after classy form over fences but this is his first attempt at 3m.
On the Blind Side successfully made the switch, second in the Relkeel and winner at Market Rasen.
When rear-runner Main Fact beat Third Wind in a stayers’ hurdle over the Haydock CD in November, Fergus Gilliard could claim 7lb. So it is that Third Wind is 5lb better off today: BETDAQ 5.7
HOBBS NAILS IT FOR McMANUS
⭕ 2.25 Ascot Winner in 2018 and third the last two years, Regal Encore is brought back for more by Anthony Honeyball, but Team McManus, to which he belongs, is also represented by Musical Slave and Jerrysback, both with Philip Hobbs.
Musical Slave has failed to make any impression beyond the novice but Jerrysback has tried to mix it in Graded company – including the NH chase at Cheltenham – after a sole chase success at Bangor more than two years ago.
Jerry has recently run well here at Ascot, placed twice, and is now 8lb better off for third to Regal Encore in the Silver Cup.
Also at Ascot, Cobolobo tried gallantly to give 15lb to a well-handicapped winner, but he drifted to 12.0 this morning and I think the bet is Jerrysback (4.4), though you’d be a fool not to save on Musical Slave (9.8).
BETDAQ ODDS A PLACE AMIGOS
⭕ 2.40 Haydock (Grand National Trial) Notachance drops Haydock for this over an extra half-mile, which suited well when he won the Warwick Classic in January.
But the handicapper was watching and hiked him 7lb, which seemingly hands the race to the half-length Warwick runner-up, Achille, a late developer now placed in consecutive Graded races.
The handicapper has also been watching Sojourn, never out of the frame since his debut, winning the Cumberland Chase and runner-up in the Tommy Whittle, though the form of that race has not worked out.
Enqarde could be boosted by Cobolobo a few minutes earlier at Ascot. They were one-two, though in lower class, at Ascot last month.
The Two Amigos was fourth in this race and fifth in the Coral Welsh Grand National in 2019-20 but improved on that to be runner-up in that National in January (Ramses De Teillee behind) and beats Notachance on earlier form. Win and place at 9.6 on BETDAQ.
IT’S THIRD-TIME LUCKY MALAYA
⭕ 3.00 Ascot Malaya, fourth in 2019, was runner-up, forced to give 21lb and a long start to the winner in this race a year ago, hampered two out. Last-chance saloon at 13.0 in the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Arrivederci did good here at Ascot in a Grade 3, runner-up trying to give 10lb to one of those once-a-year Nicky Henderson horses.
There’s no reason at the revised weights why Kateson (3rd) and Dans Le Vent (4th) should reverse the placings.
David Pipe has had four winners in a row this week, still standing, and the unexposed Keppage has been given a bit of help from the handicapper: 10.5.
SOMEONE OFFER ME ODDS ON!
⭕ 3.18 Wincanton (Kingwell Hurdle) Excuses have now been made in his last four consecutive races for Goshen, including two on the Flat.
He’s been favourite – five times odds on – in all nine of his races since he won a handicap at Sandown in June, 2019.
He was 10 lengths up when he unseated at the last in the Triumph Hurdle; then ‘perhaps he needed it’ (last of six at Haydock); ‘still a bit gross’ (third of seven at Goodwood); ‘resented not being allowed to lead’ (last of 10 at Cheltenham) in December.
I wish he were favourite again here, but he may not be a price to lay.
Punters are finally wary, with the slick-jumping improver Song For Someone entitled to front the market, after winning the International Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Navajo Pass looked impressive beating Buveur d’Air at Haydock but Buveur, too, has had excuses made (five times in his last seven races), and at Haydock was returning after a 14-month lay-off.
KING-SIZE VALUE AT BETDAQ 8.2
⭕ 3.35 Ascot (Ascot Chase) Cyrname doesn’t run two races the same, and cheekpieces are applied. Made all in this Ascot Chase in 2019 but fell at long odds-on going for the double a year ago. Back to form in the Charlie Hall but pulled up in the King George.
Stablemate Master Tommytucker won a Grade-2 Ladbrokes chase at Kempton last month, allowed to get away with bad mistakes when the even-money favourite departed early on.
Dashel Drasher goes for an Ascot hat-trick, looking for form boosts earlier today from Jerrysback, whom he beat last month, and Itchy Feet, runner-up to him in December.
Bennys King, who split Dashel Drasher and Jerrysback, has a couple of pound with which to run down the length and a quarter that Drasher beat him in a testing finish, and looks big at BETDAQ 8.2
2.05 Haydock (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win THIRD WIND
2.25 Ascot (win 10)
BET 3pts win JERRYSBACK
BET 1.25pts win MUSICAL SLAVE
2.40 Haydock (win 10, place win 10)
BET 1.25pts win and 4.75pts place THE TWO AMIGOS
3.00 Ascot (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.2pts win KEPPAGE
BULL’S-EYE BET: 4pts win MALAYA
3.18 Wincanton (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win SONG FOR SOMEONE
3.35 Ascot (win 10, win 20)
BET 10pts win CYRNAME
BET 2.75pts win BENNYS KING
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