1,000 RAIDER IS BIG VALUE AT 8.7 on BETDAQ: England’s champion trainer, Charlie Appleby, won with his so-called second string, Coroebus, in the 2,000 Guineas yesterday, beating his own favourite, Native Trail. Daqman reckons the same could apply to Ireland’s champion, Aidan O’Brien, in the 1,000 Guineas today but his two contenders have a hot in-form French rival taken at a big-value 8.7 on BETDAQ this morning.
TODAY’S HEADLINES: Here’s how Daqman sees today’s headlines in advance:
1,000 GUINEAS GOES TO FRANCE
REVOLVER THE WORRY FOR JEDI
CRENELLE ALL READY TO STEP UP
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY: Guineas wrap and new Fortune Cookies with a spotlight on fake news.
1,000 GUINEAS GOES TO FRANCE
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas) STATS:See Friday’s ABC guide, in which Cachet, Mise En Scene and Wild Beauty ticked all the boxes. STALLS: Is the draw the secret weapon for finding the 1,000 Guineas winner?
In the last 10 years, eight of the 2,000 and 1,000 winners match up as coming from similar stalls positions or the same side of the draw (4-2, 15-14, 9-8, 3-7, 1-8, 3-4, 6-7 where the first number is the 2,000 winner’s stall, the second the 1,000 in the same year). As you see, five of them are very, very close.
Coroebus won from the one stall yesterday and low numbers today are: 1 Flash Betty at 200.0 on BETDAQ this morning; 2 Juncture 16.5; 3 Cachet 24.0; 4 Tuesday 7.4; 5 Tenebrism 4.7; 6 Discoveries 7.8, 7 Malavath 7.8, 8 Hello You 55.0.
The first three home yesterday had all run three times and all three had won twice. It was victory for the boys in blue with the one-two for Godolphin and, for Ballydoyle, the best run by a Derby horse, Luxembourg.
1️⃣ MALAVATH (BETDAQ 8.7) France last won this 1,000 Guineas with Miss France (2014) for Andre Fabre and, on her home form, mainly on heavy ground, you would have reservations about Malavath.
But she very nearly won her Breeders Cup at Del Mar in November on firm, with Cachet a length behind in third, after the English raider tried to make all.
Malavath won the established Classic trial Prix Imprudence at Deauville earlier this month, from Zellie (Olivier Peslier), who was not given a hard time when she was clearly beaten by Malavath’s smooth run.
Andre Fabre drops Peslier in favour of an English rider, Tom Marquand, but is drawn 10, and faces good-to-firm ground here, unless the forecast showers are heavy.
Malavath, out of gate seven, is steered by Christophe Soumillon, who had five winners out of seven at Longchamp on Wednesday (three for Malvath’s stable) and won the opener at Newmarket yesterday.
Cachet’s third in the Fillies Mile puts Malavath less than two lengths behind Inspiral (red-hot favourite for today but slow to come to hand this Spring) and in front of Mise En Scene and Wild Beauty.
2️⃣ TUESDAY (BETDAQ 7.7) Tenebrism’s form is Cheveley Park and, as my ABC guide revealed, it’s hard for something to come from that and win a Guineas.
So I prefer Minding’s sister, Tuesday, short-headed on her debut by the subsequent Moyglare winner.
Those of you caught out by the stablemate beating the favourite yesterday, will want to back both Tenebrism and Tuesday. Similarly, you might think ‘where Malavath is, Zellie can’t be far away’. She is out of a half-sister to 1,000 winner, Speciosa, and Fab
3️⃣ PROSPEROUS VOYAGE (BETDAQ win 26.0 or e.w. 20.0) Twice placed behind Inspiral, she is drawn 9, but for me is the equivalent of Luxembourg yesterday. Bred for 1m 4f and should be running into a place if she’s going to win an Oaks. Trainer Ralph Beckett is very good with fillies.
REVOLVER THE WORRY FOR JEDI
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Revolver won six low-level races in a row for sequence king Sir Mark Prescott in 2020.
Sir Mark declared his regard for the gelding by aiming him at the Doncaster Cup (fourth) and now – after 597 days off – at the Ascot Gold Cup.
I’m sure he’ll prove there are more than six shots in a revolver but, with the yard lacking a Flat winner for 86 days, it’s not a good bet to assume it will be today unless you can get double-figure odds. Of course, you can: 12.0 on BETDAQ!
Team Johnston takes him on with Soapy Stevens, a winner over today’s trip at Haydock on top of the ground, and Golden Flame, who did the same thing two grades higher (Valley Forge third, always held).
Raceform calls Sir Rumi a progressive handicapper but he’s been stuck on the same rating (94) for six consecutive races – and is on that mark again today – from which his form figures are 002424.
When he was fourth in the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh, Dark Jedi, was second yet is now 2lb better off. The winner, Enemy, ran half-a-length second in the Group-3 Sagaro Stakes on Wednesday.
Dark Jedi and Cemhaan, a Salisbury winner in the mud, will be going up 2lb in future.
They could have this race between them, with Dark Jedi likely to be able to rely on a fast pace from Cemhaan. Your wallet will need to load Revolver – not very much – but such a pain in the wallet if he’s ready to fire and you miss him.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 7.8 Dark Jedi, 12.0 Revolver
CRENELLE ALL READY TO STEP UP
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Pretty Polly Stakes) Team Gosden has won this five times in eight seasons and Crenelle broke her maiden here at the Craven meeting, looking for all the world like a Pattern-race filly in the making.
Arion and Peripatetic are Oaks and Ribblesdale entries but don’t have the advantage of Crenelle’s recent run. BETDAQ 2.55.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes) and ⭕ 3.25 Longchamp (Prix Ganay) Francis-Henri Graffard, who trains my selection, Malavath, in the 1,000 Guineas, could have landed a double by then.
He has the Aga Khan’s Ebaiyra (Christophe Soumillon) in the Newmarket race, placed 11 times in 13 starts and already a dual winner in today’s grade.
Dreamloper, third in the Group-1 Sun Chariot, must be a danger but the money has been for Ville De Grace, a steady improver in the hands of maestro Sir Michael Stoute.
At Longchamp, Graffard puts Mickael Barzalona up on Sealiway, the Champion Stakes winner, likely to reverse recent Harcourt form with Skalleti, and targeting the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.
BETDAQ value 3.6 Ebaiyra
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 7.25pts win DARK JEDI
BET 4.5pts win REVOLVER
2.25 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 6pts win CRENELLE
3.00 Newmarket (win 10, nap)
BET 4pts win EBAIYRA
3.40 Newmarket (win 50 and e.w. to win 50 and place 12.50)
BET 6.5pts win MALAVATH
BET 2.5pts e.w. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
Plus BET 3pts to win 20 TUESDAY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
