DAQMAN’S NAPS ON 75% STRIKE RATE Back-to-back best bets before the break have put Daqman on a sequence of nine winning naps from the last 12: WWWWWW42W0WW spanning seven consecutive winning days (on which he made 116 points profit)
… AND FORTUNE COOKIES ARE ON 100% Boxing Day sees Daqman and Pricewise toe to toe with the score 15-9. It’s also a day for Fortune Cookies with the score 3-3, unbeaten after three bets this season so far. Headlines:
🔹 THE GIFT OF BETDAQ VALUE
🔹 BRAVE MAN TO OPPOSE HIM
🔹 CHRISTMAS HURDLE CRACKER
🔹 SNOW PROMPTS WINDSOR TIP
🔹 CASH TO ASH IS BIG AT 14.0
🔹 BASKING ON THE RIVIERE..
🔹 GABYNAKO FOR THE FAUGHEEN
🔹 5.5 THE GOLD CUP WINNER!
THE GIFT OF BETDAQ VALUE
⭕ 1.20 Kempton A novices’ handicap chase (2m 4f) which a clear favourite hasn’t won since 2011, and older horses (over the age of six) have taken only once in the decade.
How to play a tricky opening race; how to make the King George field work for you?
The answer, says the market, is to take Nicky Henderson to win this (Bothwell Bridge and Mister Coffey) and Paul Nicholls to bag his 11th King George (Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux).
To make that work for you, you need to be on BETDAQ, where the exchange total percentages on the two races were 103% and 104% this morning at 10 a.m..
That allows you to have more than one bet of different stakes in an open race, where a bookies overround (or the total SP of 114-115% or much more) forces you into odds on.
Those slender margins on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE also mean that, if you can knock out one horse in a race, you can back the rest and win. Or, if that horse is a hot favourite, you can lay it as well as picking the winner in the super-value remainder of the field. Double whammy!
BRAVE MAN TO OPPOSE HIM
⭕ 1.55 Kempton (Kauto Star Novices Chase) Bravemansgame tries to give Fortune Cookies a four-timer in a seeming match with Ahoy Senor. He was 2.0 at 10 a.m. this morning, where bookies were going odds on.
Bravemansgame’s jumping has been exemplary over fences and his hurdles defeat by Ahoy Senor at Aintree in the Spring looks the blip of an immature horse.
He was too keen to post, and didn’t have the finish left to catch Ahoy Senor, who made all that day.
But, on the ratings at the weights, the Senor had 10lb in hand of Fiddlerontheroof at Carlisle in October but was headed three out and, a length down, unseated at the second last.
Itchy Feet was rated to give Bravemansgame 6lb at Haydock but in fact gave him 4lb and was easily held. Fiddlerontheroof was 148 and Itchy Feet 155 when these races were run
CHRISTMAS HURDLE CRACKER
⭕ 2.30 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) Tritonic is in my horses to follow, sub-list to the Fortune Cookies and today’s race tells you why I was hesitant, despite his defeat of a good handicap field earlier in the month at Ascot.
He gets no help as a four-year-old and, on the ratings, he has an enormous task, 6lb behind on the official figures but giving Epatante 7lb.
Winner of the 2020 Champion Hurdle, Epatante took this Christmas Hurdle in 2019 but has slipped 9lb in the ratings and (though can claim lack of match fitness) was held to a dead-heat by Not So Sleepy in the Fighting Fifth last month.
Some good judges are picking Not So Sleepy but only one nine-year-old has won this since 1979. Nicky Henderson is going for 10 wins in the race and will have put an edge on Epatante (BETDAQ 2.06) for today.
Will you take the even money or (in a 103% orange) the 4.6 Tritonic and 5.1 Not So Sleepy and gang up your bets against her?
SNOW PROMPTS WINDSOR TIP
⭕ 2.10 Wetherby (Rowland Meyrick Chase) Long-term prepared for this are Lake View Lad and Top Ville Ben, the 2018 and 2019 winners, and last year’s third, Windsor Avenue.
Lake View Lad was third in a veterans race on his return after a break since the Spring. He would normally be too old at 11 (going on 12) but he’s dropped 13lb this year.
Top Ville Ben fell heavily in the Becher Chase three weeks back and I always like to see them again after they’ve tried the National fences (this year so far, Checkitout and Didero Valdis have both been beaten since).
Windsor Avenue had been second to the Becher winner, Snow Leopardess, at Bangor in November, hampered and giving the mare weight. BETDAQ 7.4 looks tasty.
I’d like to see Ladbrokes Trophy winner, Cloudy Glen, score again (10lb higher). He was second in the Kim Muir to my Grand National ante-post bet, Mount Ida.
The 3m should suit the likely favourite, Silver Hallmark. Good Boy Bobby almost won the Rehearsal (but today’s rain is a worry), and Empire Steel is unexposed.
CASH TO ASH IS BIG AT 14.0
⭕ 2.15 Market Rasen (Lincolnshire National) Nick Kent, who has trained the winner twice in the last five years, comes back for more with last year’s hero, Who’s In The Box, still only seven and – claimed off – just a pound higher.
Sue Smith’s North Yorkshire National winner, Sharp Response, can’t be ignored though you have to accept hope rather than proof that he is at his best after one run (pulled up) in 852 days.
Tail-swishing Sidi Ismael and Powerstown Park are up in the weights and up in trip. Not many are guaranteed to get the long distance, except 14.0 Cash To Ash and 5.4 Eclair Mag (has won on the course).
BASKING ON THE RIVIERE..
⭕ 2.20 Leopardstown (Racing Post Novice Chase) This 2m 1f novice chase was won in successive years by Douvan, Min and Footpad, all for Willie Mullins.
He has the form horse again in Ferny Hollow, the 2020 Champion Bumper winner, and the only horse to have beaten Bob Olinger.
Daqman was on the winner last time a four-year-old won this, Clarcam for Gordon Elliott in 2014; he runs another one here, three-times chase winner Riviere d’Etel, who has a 13lb allowance and ‘could be anything.’ BETDAQ 2.5 to turn over an odds-on favourite.
GABYNAKO FOR THE FAUGHEEN
⭕ 2.40 Limerick (Faugheen Novice Chase) Gavin Cromwell’s Vanillier misses this but stablemate Gabynako takes on Farouk DAlene.
Farouk D’Alene, who was all out to pip Vanillier over hurdles on today’s course a year ago, now has a 10lb lower official rating and just one chase under his belt (narrow winner over a 138 rated).
Gabynako (BETDAQ 3.05) was officially a pound behind him over hurdles but has run well in three chases (to Farouk’s one), including second to 158-rated Beacon Edge in the Drinmore, which he would have won but for some less-than-fluent jumping. It’s another cracking head-to-head, with Gabynako the value.
5.5 THE GOLD CUP WINNER!
⭕ 3.05 Kempton (King George VI Chase) STATS, form: & ratings Wednesday.
1 MINELLA INDO Looked burly on his reappearance third to Frodon in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in October but the horse he beat in the Gold Cup, A Plus Tard, gave the form a boost when taking the Lancashire Chase at Haydock last month, and a line through Al Boum Photo gives the selection the edge over Clan des Obeaux.
Like Clan des Obeaux the last twice, Minella Indo now wears cheekpieces, which should sharpen him up for the track and trip.
I take him to be the first since Kauto Star (2009) to do the Gold Cup and King George double, wearing down Frodon in the closing stages, Rachael Blackmore in a duel with Bryony Frost.
2 Frodon Sensationally made all under Bryony to win this last year (Clan Des Obeaux third) and you wonder just how many tough races he can deliver from the front, or how many times you can watch your money fly those fences, heart in mouth.
3 Clan des Obeaux Dual winner of the King George but ousted last year by stablemate Frodon. Returned to winning form in cheekpieces in the Spring, but has been beaten five times in a row after a break of 205 days or more.
ALSO RUN: Chantry House has won five chases out of six, among them back to back in the Golden Miller at Cheltenham in March and the Mildmay at Aintree.
Asterion Forlonge has to be forgiven falling or unseating three times in eight chase starts. Mister Fisher is a Cheltenham horse but beaten only a neck by Frodon at Sandown when last seen.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.5 Minella Indo
BET 10pts win BRAVEMANSGAME
2.10 Wetherby (win 20)
BET 3pts win WINDSOR AVENUE
2.15 Market Rasen (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win ECLAIR MAG
BET 1.5pts win CASH TO ASH
2.20 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 6pts win RIVIERE D’ETEL
2.40 Limerick (win 10)
BET 5pts win GABYNAKO
3.05 Kempton (win 20, nap)
BET 4.5pts win MINELLA INDO
3.40 Kempton (win 12)
BET 1.25pts win ECCO
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.