SUPERNAP STRIKES AGAIN TO LAND A PROFITABLE SATURDAY: With the Shergar Cup floor show at Ascot out of the way, Daqman was 2-2 with serious Saturday bets at Haydock and Newmarket, including a supernap, which more than paid for the day, showing a tidy profit. It takes the number of supernap strikes to 11 out of 15.
Saturday: profit on the day 9.41
WON 5-6 QUINTILLUS (Newmarket supernap)
WON 5-4 FOXES TALES (Haydock)
DAQMAN UP FOR THE CRAIC AT AN ACTION-PACKED CURRAGH: Daqman checks out the big Sunday sprints today on a cracking day at the Curragh and at Deauville, with his overall scores now:
📈 DAQMAN 48, PRICEWISE 28 (Daqman +94.86, Pricewise -31.50)
📈 BULL’S-EYE NAPS 1-2 (50%)
📈 SUPERNAPS 11-15 (73%)
📈 LAYS LOGIC 11-15 (73%)
📈 FORTUNE COOKIES 7-16 (44%)
O’BRIEN EXHIBIT MAKING HISTORY
⭕ 1.55 The Curragh Aidan O’Brien’s last winner of this two-year-old fillies maiden, Hydrangea (2016), took a while to make her mark but was eventually British Champion Fillies And Mares.
His Dubawi filly Concert Hall out of Oaks winner Was (Ryan Moore) has the big entries – Lowther, Moyglare – and showed a great attitude to score here three weeks back.
But Irish eyes will be on the O’Brien second string today under Seamie Heffernan, the 2.8million-guineas yearling History, one of the last Galileos out of Mohaather’s sister Prize Exhibit, receiving 7lb from the penalised Concert Hall.
CAMPANELLE OUR FORTUNE COOKIE
⭕ 2.50 Deauville (Prix Maurice De Gheest) English trainers have won this 6f Group 1 eight times in the last 12 years, the spell broken by the magnificent hat-trick of Freddy Head’s Moonlight Cloud.
She is celebrated in the 3.25 Prix Moonlight Cloud, which has been run for just two years in that name but has already thrown up an Abbaye winner.
Freddy has plotted to win it with Ivresse (Maxime Guyon), an Invincible Spirit out of a mare by Lope De Vega.
That brings me neatly back to the Maurice De Gheest, in which Aidan O’Brien saddles a Lope De Vega colt, Lope Y Fernandez, second to Palace Pier in the Queen Anne but out of the frame on soft ground over today’s trip twice last year.
Ken Condon sends over from Ireland the Jean Prat winner, Law Of Indices (Thunder Moon second), but he was well down the field, seven lengths off Campanelle, in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot (heavy).
With Starman seemingly best on a sound surface, the improver Kinross may be best of the English but I vowed to stand by Campanelle, who is queen of our Fortune Cookies.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 3.5 Campanelle (2.50 race) and 11.0 Ivresse (3.25 race)
GO FOR THE POWER UNDER KEANE
⭕ 3.05 The Curragh (Phoenix Sprint) Encouraged by three of the last six winners, trainers of three-year-olds turn out in force for this, headed by English raider Light Refrain (William Haggas), who beat the Jersey Stakes third, Vadream, at York the last day.
Challenging in the market is Gustavus Weston, a long-priced winner of this in 2019 as a three-year-old. He won a Group-2 at the Curragh on heavy in the Spring.
The ultra-consistent Romantic Proposal is also five years old but, if the Sapphire Stakes here at the Curragh three weeks back is any guide, the youngsters must win.
Gustavus Weston and Romantic Proposal were second and third to the 101-rated three-year-old filly Mooneista. This was a furlong shorter and Romantic Proposal had her excuses.
But Gustavus Weston was failing to concede 7lb to the winner and he has to give 9lb to Light Refrain today and between 6lb and 12lb to the other three-year-olds.
The collateral form is ramped up if we can still accept the result of a Group 3 at Naas in the Spring (6f soft) when Mooneista (receiving weight) was beaten a neck by A Case Of You, with Power Under Me a head back in third.
Monieista was disqualified and placed third for bumping Power Under Me, who was probably the unlucky loser of the race.
Power Under Me was hampered at the finish again on the last day, carried left in a Group 2 over 7f.
It all looks very tight but, dropped back to 6f, Power Under Me – literally power under Colin Keane – can have no excuses today.
BETDAQ value 9.0 Power Under Me
THE FAVOURITE BEARS TAKING ON..
⚠️ HEADS UP Ballydoyle’s winner of the Grand Prix De Paris last season, Mogul was supplemented for the Group-3 Prix De Reux (4.00 Deauville) only on Thursday, and was trading at 2.94 this morning.
⭕ 4.10 The Curragh (Phoenix Stakes) Until Martyn Meade won this for Manton in 2018 with Advertise, the Irish had not let the prize out of their grasp since 1997 when Mark Johnston scored. A phenomenal 16 wins in 20 years by Aidan O’Brien saw to that!
But the Ballydoyle pair today, Prettiest and The Entertainer, are a huge 11lb and 13lb behind the seeming English phenomenon of the race, Go Bears Go.
Bears was only just denied in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot when he ‘won’ on the wrong side.
Winner, third and fourth were all well beaten next time, but Go Bears Go was not. He raided the Curragh and bagged a prestigious Classic trial, leading the Railway Stakes most of the way, when runner-up Castle Star was no match for the winner and Dr Zempf was only fourth (Twilight Jet, The Entertainer, Strapped and Arges behind).
However, all six beaten horses take on the winner again today. This is an unusual situation, which suggests that more than one of the beaten stables has reached the same conclusion: we won’t let Go Bears Go boss us again!
Castle Star didn’t get going until two out (had to be switched and hung right) at which stage Dr Zempf was still being pushed along.
Of all the avengers, I shall side with the one who had least experience and could leap forward from it after the break he’s had since, and that would be Dr Kempf.
Dr Zempf had only just made his debut earlier that month (with an easy win) and, six weeks later, could now be the bugbear to the favourite, and a bet at the price.
LAYS LOGIC: In fact, it’s the norm for the Railway winner to be turned over in the Phoenix, and the stats going right back suggest laying today’s favourite.
Laws Of Indices beat Lucky Vega (2020) in the Railway Stakes but was only fourth to the same colt in the Phoenix.
Beckford (2017), who won the Railway, was second in the Phoenix. Medicine Jack (2016) won the Railway; third in the Phoenix. Painted Cliff won the Railway (2015); fourth in the Phoenix.
BETDAQ value 4.0 Dr Zempf
2.50 Deauville (nap to win 30)
BET 12pts win CAMPANELLE
3.05 The Curragh (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win POWER UNDER ME
3.25 Deauville (win 20)
BET 2pts win IVRESSE
4.00 Deauville (win 10)
BET 5pts win MOGUL
4.10 The Curragh (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win DR ZEMPF
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.