DAQMAN SAVES HIS BIGGEST PROFIT FOR SATURDAY: Daqman yesterday completed 12 winning bets in eight days, 13 if you include his top-of-the-ABC-guide tip for the autumn gold cup at Cheltenham, 15 if you add the two favourites he opposed with Lays Logic. Five days showed a profit on the day, with yesterday his best. Five naps won.
Saturday: profit on the day 16.75 points
WON 5-1 GA LAW top of the gold cup ABC guide
WON 2-1 SUMMERGHAND from BETDAQ 3.8
WON 11-8 BANBRIDGE from BETDAQ 2.9
Friday: First day at Cheltenham
WON 7-2 MAGIC DANCER from BETDAQ 4.8
Thursday: profit on the day 3.50 points
WON 5-2 FANTASTIC LADY from BETDAQ 3.9
Wednesday: profit on the day 6.30 points
WON 4-6 GREEN VAULT (nap) five consecutive naps!
Tuesday: fourth nap in a row
WON 10-11 OZZIE MAN (nap) from BETDAQ 2.28
Monday: profit on the day 14.40 points
WON 7-2 DALAMOI from BETDAQ 6.5
WON 10-11 ATTACA (nap) from BETDAQ 2.20
Sunday: profit on the day 15 points
WON 13-8 DUKE DE SESSA (nap) from BETDAQ 3.1
Saturday: 3-0 big-race hat-trick over Pricewise
WON 42-10 TUESDAY from BETDAQ 7.0
WON 9-4 FRODON from BETDAQ 4.0
WON 11-8 MODERN GAMES (supernap)
FOUR BIG RACES WITH BETDAQ BETS TODAY: Cheltenham’s final day features the Greatwood Hurdle and there’s the Southern National and Salmon Spray Hurdle at Fontwell and a Grade-2 hurdle at Navan. Bull’s-eye bets at 7.8, 9.0 and 21.0.
21.0 RED HAPPY LOOKS OVERPRICED
⭕ 2.05 Fontwell (Southern National) LAYS LOGIC: Not a winning favourite in sight since way back, yet almost all winners were well fancied; nine of the last 10 were between 7-2 and 8-1 at SP.
Seven out of 10 winners were well below 11st but the race is a couple of pounds lower in quality than last year, when Almazhar Garde ran second; he was treated for a burst a blood-vessel afterwards but continued to find one just too good for him (3-6 seconds).
Django is another too often placed without winning (10 seconds and thirds) and best of a David Pipe trio may be an old friend of mine, Red Happy, winner of eight chases.
He has been winning on firm ground, but scored back to back in France on very soft at this time last year for Gaby Leenders, and was well overpriced at 21.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Top-weight Full Back has been placed twice in small fields here at Fontwell but his claim to fame is winning at Cheltenham (3m2f+) in January.
The handicapper was not overly impressed: over six races last year, he would have been on 12st for this five times, and he won just the once.
Southfield Harvest, absent 557 days, has a big weight for doing even less – beating a small field at Newton Abbot – but his stable could not be in better form.
Slipway is up 10lb for winning the Highland National in April; Cyclops (a big drifter in today’s market) won it the year before, and has been placed in today’s race twice.
I See You Well is 121 over fences at Fontwell, one of them over 3m 2f and off today’s mark but was remote behind Slipway in the Spring. Watch the market: form figures when 13-2 or less, 121102113.
AND THE STAYERS’ OSKAR GOES TO..
⭕ 2.20 Cheltenham It’s a sunny day in the great super bowl, and that’s frightened off some of the soft-ground horses and every one of the top trainers who have shared this stayers’ chase for the last 10 years: no Nicholls, Pipe, Hobbs or Tizzard!
I dithered about including Fantastikas in my Fortune Cookies, after his modest efforts in the Spring – has won only on heavy in the past year- and 12 lengths defeats in two attempts at Cheltenham.
He can prove me wrong and get back into my horses to follow, but I’d rather watch at this stage and at his odds today.
Does He Know could improve for wind ops but there wasn’t much money for him at Kelso when he was bumped out of the race at the first. He has to be taken down early and, again, I am a watcher.
Back On the Lash is a cross–country winner here on a sound surface. Forgot To Ask has taken a long time – too long? – to try Cheltenham.
Despite a supposed preference for soft ground, Eva’s Oskar has been backed. He’s won on tough tracks at Exeter and Chepstow, and could improve for Cheltenham.
BETDAQ value: I think Back On The Lash (6.6) and Evas Oskar (10.0) are the toughies here.
⭕ 2.40 Fontwell (Salmon Spray Hurdle) Four-year-olds are 3-7 in this, with two of the last three winners ridden by claimers.
Step forward Freddie Gingell, taking 10lb off Irish Hill (BETDAQ 3.2), running first time after a wind op for the all-conquering Paul Nicholls.
DIFFERENT BUT ALL THE SAME TO HIM
⭕ 2.55 Cheltenham (Greatwood Hurdle) LAYS LOGIC: Not a winning favourite in sight; seven out of nine a double-figure SP.
Willie Mullins (Dads Lad) and his nephew Emmet (Thousand Tears) have seen their raiders ease in the market, after overnight gambles on Gin Coco and A Different Kind, with Sonigino solid.
Dads Lad won narrowly over fences at the October meeting (Thousand Tears in rear) and his hurdles rating seems sure to follow his chase mark to some extent but is currently 21lb behind.
Gin Coco is rarely seen but, when he does appear, he’s always heavily backed: 121, favourite very time, but facing his biggest test today.
A Different Kind won five in a row, literally over different kinds of track – Flat, bumper and hurdles – over different trips on different ground. But was well held at Graded level and dropped back to a handicap recently (fine second at Aintree).
Sonigino is the improver. Wind surgery has done the trick and, as ever, Paul Nicholls is tempted to aim high with a five-year-old, who has eased through his back-to-back wins.
I Like To Move It was just pipped in the big hurdle at Newbury in February but is having a second try at Cheltenham after flopping in the County Hurdle.
Five-year-olds landed a hat-trick in this (2016-18) and have a strong duo in A Different Kind and Sonigino.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.8 Sonigino, 9 A Different Kind.
1.55 Navan (Fortune Cookie)
BET 20pts win FLOORING PORTER
2.05 Fontwell (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.5pts win RED HAPPY
2.20 Cheltenham (win 20 each)
BET 3.5pts win BACK ON THE LASH
BET 2pts win EVA’S OSKAR
2.40 Fontwell (win 21, nap)
BET 10pts win IRISH HILL
2.55 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 7.5pts win SONIGINO
BULLS-EYE BET 6.25pts win A DIFFERENT KIND
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.