THE KING LANDS HIS SUPERNAP! Big-odds place pay-outs from among eight horses in the frame for Daqman’s Saturday selections added up to frustration rather than profit but at least his supernap won, a confident vote for Persian King (WON 5-4).
NOW HE PLOTS A 165-1 DOUBLE: Today Daqman analyses the Irish Cesarewitch at Navan and the Ladbrokes Munster National at Limerick. He takes BETDAQ offers of 10.5 and 18.0 in one and 5.5 and 9.2 in the other, hoping for a maximum pay-out of around 165-1 from his DAQ MULTIPLES cross doubles.
HOT ROCK IS MY TOP OF THE BILL
4.25 Navan (Irish Cesarewitch) This race has only a tenth of the prizemoney of the boosted half-million-pound Newmarket Cesarewitch yesterday.
But Willie Mullins, who had the first two from a seven-strong assault on the record English autumn handicap, has seven more in the home version this afternoon.
Quality now giving way to quantity? Not at all; Willie’s one-two yesterday came from 94 and 97 rated, and today he saddles Chelkar off 100, with Aidan O’Brien fielding Cliffs Of Dooneen off 101 and Jim Bolger has Stellar Mass in there on 105.
And four straight winners out of the last six successful in this race carried 9st 1lb to 9st 10lb. Mullins has trained two of the last three winners.
His favourite today, Exchange Rate, loved the heavy ground at Listowel on the last day, whereas Newcross for Tony Martin, second of a big field at the Galway Festival, had come to prominence in a big-field handicap at Roscommon on firm.
Chelkar was fourth in the Ascot Stakes on his first run for Mullins, and excuses were made after his Galway flop in the race won by yesterday’s Newmarket runner-up, Uradel.
Sharjah slammed a big field in the Grade A Galway Hurdle (handicap) but has never won on the Flat. Cliffs Of Doneen won twice on a sound surface; Mr Everest’s form improved on soft-heavy.
Nessun Dorma scored twice over hurdles before landing two on the Flat, including a premier handicap at Galway but you could pick any one of the Mullins septet and get the wrong one (as I did at Newmarket yesterday!)
So I’ll have a win and place Rockabill for Joseph O’Brien at a big price, three-year-olds having won this race five times in the decade, four of them from 8st 1lb to 8st 9lb.
He looks a nice horse and has every chance of staying the trip on this hat-trick bid from a low mark in the handicap.
BETDAQ 18.0 offers were taken about Rockabill and, in the end, fancied Chelkar at 10.5 as the Mullins pick.
SCORPION TO STING THE LAYERS
4.45 Limerick (Ladbrokes Munster National) Gordon Elliott is out in force with five runners, so the game is ‘Pick an Elliott’ rather than ‘Pick a Mullins’. It’s all guesswork, or is it?
Gordon’s winner of this two years ago was his last runner in the race, Tiger Roll, subsequent 2018 Liverpool Grand National winner. Tiger Roll was just six years old, same age as It’s All Guesswork, in fact the third six-year-old to win this Munster National in the decade.
‘Guesswork’ has been progressive without being spectacular and much depends on whether he can step up in trip today. Davy Russell, who usually partners him, seems to have had no choice but to pick the stable’s new acquisition, Alpha Des Obeaux, because he can’t do the weight on the other Elliott runners.
Whereas ‘Guesswork’ needs a sound surface, Alpha is not ground dependent, but winning a Grade 2 in November has cost him. He’s now 9lb higher than when running second in this National a year ago for Mouse Morris, though in fact will carry just 3lb more.
A third Elliott hope, Timiyan, won the Midlands National at Kilbeggan in July, but was disqualified because of a positive test.
If anything stops an Elliott win, I would reckon either Black Scorpion, an improver and excellent jumper, or Spider Web.
Spider Web has been in fine form for the last 10 months, unlucky not to have won more. Two Leopardstown wins were separated by a good run until his stamina gave out in the Punchestown Grand National Trial. He was favourite when runner-up in the Mayo National at Ballinrobe and again when he fell after not much luck in running in the Galway Blazers.
The short list then is: Alpha Des Obeaux, Black Scorpion, It’s All Guesswork, Spider Web and Timiyan, though he seems to have lost his form.
I reckon Alpha Des Obeaux is the crumbs Russell is forced to pick up today;and that Walsh and Enright (the Mark brothers!), his usual jockeys, have both deserted Spider Web. So I took 9.2 It’s All Guesswork and 5.5 Black Scorpion.
MIDI FOR THE GOODWOOD MONEY
GOODWOOD: Assuming rain, her mount’s drop back in trip, and the application of cheekpieces, Nicola Currie will be able to make more use of Mt Augustus (4.20), with Henry Candy just now struck form again at last.
I took 18.0 on BETDAQ but there was money for Midi this morning (4.7), with my Stoute man in the long grass confident of a good run.
Another new recruit today, Smokey Lane (4.55) seems to be back on track, after two runs for Roger Charlton. Also first-time cheekpieces. A brave nap at 8.8 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.25 Navan (win 30)
BET 3pts win CHELKAR
BET 1.75pts win and place ROCKABILL
4.45 Limerick (win 20)
BET 4.4pts win BLACK SCORPION
BET 2.4pts win IT’S ALL GUESSWORK
DAQ MULTIPLES
BET four (2 x 2) 1pt win doubles the above four
4.20 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 5.5 win MIDI
BET 1.25pts win and place MT AUGUSTUS
4.55 Goodwood (win 30)
BET 3.75pts win (nap) SMOKEY LANE
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