‘SEE HOW THEY WON’ ROYAL MEETING PREVIEW: Starting on Tuesday, Daqman presents two weeks of Royal Ascot. In his preview week, he reports on the stats and facts that will find you winners, including ante-post prospects in races where you can see how they won. He takes you through the races day by day, but a week in advance.
GOODWOOD BETS: Three bets from Goodwood on a depleted days racing.
DAQMAN’S ASCOT QUALITY CHECK
Royal Ascot here we come. As always, I start a week early with ante-post Fortune Cookies (tomorrow) and then analysis of the stats day by day as the fields become known and the BETDAQ markets are formed.
To remind myself what a blessing Ascot is I checked out the quality levels of racing we had to endure in the weekdays Monday to Friday this week.
Class 6: there were 19 races at this rock-bottom level.
Class 5: some 38 races we are grateful to erase from the memory
Class 4: middle-of-the-way, or should I say muddle-of-the way, events numbered 20.
Class 3: blessed relief with some glimmer of quality
Class 2: we were treated to two races at class-2 level but one of them was a lower-level field masquerading as class 2.
I recommend to punters that you use these weak weekday races for small stakes Daq Multiples. If you are faced with lotto or roulette, not much point in hoping to play chess.
Meanwhile I’ll be checking out the facts and stats for you for the Group-race bonanza that is Royal Ascot. It’s the Cheltenham of the Flat.
On Tuesday I shall assess the first day’s Royal Ascot races due to be run a week later; then Wednesday for Wednesday and so on. I shall include the handicaps where I can but you won’t get a good indication of the runners for those until later in the week.
ALWAYS ACCENTUATE THE POSITIVE
It was a Klassique example. The difference between those graded races of a lower level and the classier contests on Saturday was evident in the Group 3 at Haydock.
Form rarely works out at a low level, but it seldom lies when there’s class about. I warned that True Self was flawed. Those behind the odds-on favourite in her winning sequence had produced ‘absolutely nothing’.
On any other day she was a lay, but in the Haydock mud, I satisfied myself with finding one to beat her that was a good thing for a place (Pilaster 3rd 7-1). What to take out of the race?
It is further recognition, looking back on True Self, how cleverly Willie Mullins had placed her to win so many races against nothing to speak of, and lining herself up for the Group attempt.
Another positive in the race is the winner, Klassique, who must surely be back at Haydock for the Lancashire Oaks.
You should also stay positive about the two-year-old Moon of Love. Remember, Richard Fahey was lining her up in the Hilary Needler for connections to land a hat-trick.
She got badly squeezed onto a kink in the rail and almost came down then, taken to the middle, was barged on the other flank. That she still had the mental strength to produce a finish says a lot for her.
REDUCED SUNDAY SERVICE
The fixture list never ceases to amaze me. After a glut of seven meetings on Saturday we have a meagre offering of just two meetings on Sunday. Obviously I can understand the desire for racecourses to maximise Saturdays but let’s not forget Ireland has proved that Sundays can be equally as popular.
Also, from a sponsor’s perspective, surely having your race with some breathing space either side is more likely to get noticed than in the rush hour of Saturdays schedule?
Royal Ascot is obviously on the horizon (tell me about it, I’m busy working on the stats for this week!) so we are not going to see top-class flat racing at this stage of the season but perhaps Newmarket’s Saturday card could’ve worked just as well today?
The added irony about today’s fixtures is that there is no racing in Ireland !!
Answers on a postcard please.
Three bets for me today at Goodwood.
3.05 Goodwood A real dichotomy here, it’s a selling race but a good class one and at grade 3 level fits into the ‘glimmer of hope’ criteria above. In an y event, grade 3 is as good as it gets today.
For reasons outlined earlier DAQMAN is wary of playing in these races but with £15,000 added it comes under the microscope.
It’s a race that has been dominated by trainer Mick Channon who has won the last three runnings. As such, we have to respect the chances of the Channon trained Sir Gordon who was beaten into sixth place on debut at Leicester.
However, there is a big challenge to him from the in-form stable of Archie Watson and that is Paper Star who has now gone close in all three of her races.
She seems versatile ground wise and the drop to this level should see her collect a first victory.
4.10 Goodwood A very competitive handicap over furlongs but a race worth less than the seller!
A speculative selection is the Stuart Williams trained Tawny Port who disappointed at Ascot first time out this season but this is easier.
He has never raced at Goodwood – so that is always a question mark but the booking of Oisin Murphy is an obvious positive and the defection of original favourite Boy In The Bar takes out one of the few runners with good recent form.
5.15 Goodwood The closing handicap on the card over seven furlongs looks a good opportunity for the Clive Cox trained Eligible.
He ran a good race at Leicester last time out, finishing third and now makes his handicap debut off what would appear a reasonable starting mark.
Fantasy Keeper looks a little high in the weights and too short in the betting for my liking.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 20 points):
BET 15.3pts win (nap) PAPER STAR (3.05 Goodwood)
BET 4.1pts win TAWNY PORT (4.10 Goodwood)
BET 6.0prs win ELIGIBLE (5.15 Goodwood)
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