NOW IT’S SEVEN BANKERS IN A ROW: He’s done it again! Daqman’s patience was rewarded when Vibrato Valtat (WON 6-5) gave him SEVEN winning bankers in row with a Cheltenham-here-we-come display in the Warwick Kingmaker Chase yesterday. The seven bankers have produced a profit of 123.81 to 20-points level stakes:
WON 4-11 Josses Hill
WON 1-1 Kingscourt Native
WON 6-4 Don Cossack
WON 3-10 Top Notch
WON 8-11 Twentytwo’s Taken
WON 6-4 Hurricane Fly
WON 6-5 Vibrato Valtat
MORE CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST HITS: In fact, Vibrato Valtat, put up in his column at 15.5 on BETDAQ, is now a realistic trade for Cheltenham. He also has an ante-post hit with Pain Au Chocolat, in from 39.0 to 18.5 for the Triumph Hurdle, and adds two more today: for the Champion Chase and the RSA.
TODAY IS HENNESSY DAY AT LEOPARDSTOWN: The needle between Daqman and Pricewise (Daqman leads 16-8) got stuck yesterday. But they’re meeting their challenge today in two novice chases. That’s Pricewise’s surprise choice in the 2.15 and 2.45 Leopardstown.
AGE OF THE MAGNIFICENT JUMPING MAN…
I felt sorry for Rishi Persad. He’s not the quickest to react. Nor the sharpest when it comes to turning a phrase. So the bombshell fell in an agony of silence that was only for a moment but seemed like a lifetime.
A P McCoy had leaned forward in the saddle after a typical do-or-die win on Mr Mole – left at the start yet won 13 lengths – and told him in front of Channel-4 viewers: ‘That’s the tenth 200 and it will be the 20th championship. I’m retiring at the end of the season.’
It was a near-funereal moment, and one we dreaded after the magic moments of a lifetime that made our racing festivals jubilant and raised up the mean midweek days out of the mundane.
How dare the best and most loved of this century (and the last) fade away, hang up his boots, drop off the perch, taint those fantastic times we had with the pain of his loss.
The long seasons ahead without his total brilliance and dedication seemed to condense into that shock of silence after his surprise announcement.
We don’t want this! Stop the clocks, pack up the tack room, dismantle the fun. Our utterly reliable, magnificent jumping man was gone.
Whatever follows for him (good luck, A.P.), I’ve been lucky enough to see Lester Piggott and now Tony McCoy join the elite of all sports, of all time. They don’t make ’em that often.
As if to mock the moment, a quirky beast called Goodwood Mirage dumped McCoy out of the big hurdle at the start of the next race. It’s some game. But is it also some kind of mirage?
The colour of Cheltenham 2015 is now changed. It’s the grand farewell; an orange glow as the golden son of racing reaches his last horizon. We’ll all have our final A P punt and, as we surely count our winnings for the final time, we’ll forgive him for being mortal after all.
DODGING BULLETS LOOKS A LOADED GUN
They knew about Coneygree, didn’t they. A right gamble landed puts him into the Cheltenham picture (now RSA favourite) on the day that Sire De Grugy (Champion Chase) stumbled and finally fell from grace.
Where Sprinter Sacre had achieved an impossible comeback, Sire De Grugy had failed Gary Moore, and the Champion Chase seems left to Dodging Bullets and the Sprinter.
But the gods of racing played their hidden hand again. Pain turned to profit for the indomitable Moore family as their wheel of fortune spun abruptly, sending their five-year-old Violet Dancer clear in the Grade-3 hurdle.
Vibrato Valtat looked good at Warwick, seemingly now the main threat to Un De Sceaux in the Arkle, and this column has 15.5 to trade, his win offers cut by almost half (8.2 best) this morning.
HAVE A SLY 7.0 FOX FOR THE HENNESSY
3.50 Leopardstown (Hennessy Gold Cup) I previewed the Hennessy in my ABC Guide on Friday (check it out in the Archive) and, though Carlingford Lough and Lord Windermere came out on top, I fancy Foxrock to continue his improvement: 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Lord Windermere has only one target – to hang on to his Cheltenham gold – and Carlingford Lough was a 150 horse for most of last season before being raised for beating Ballycasey at Punchestown, which doesn’t look justified now.
Everything else here, barring Home Farm, is 157 and more, with Foxrock the star in the ascendant, up 16lb since December, running a tremendous race on today’s course over Christmas.
Boston Bob will enjoy the better ground. On His Own is now of the age for a slog like the Grand National. Foxrock to win from Boston Bob.
SOLITA 14.5 WIN-AND-PLACE FOR PAUL
1.15 Leopardstown Winner and third in the Triumph Hurdle were one-two in this last year (the reverse way round) and the winner and fourth were one-two here the year before.
Vercingetorix (they probably called him ‘Vince’ for short) rebelled for the Gauls against the Romans a few years after our Boudicca bested them, then gave her victory away.
Vercingetorix, the horse, did that a few times on the Flat in France but took complete command of a little legion of Limerick maiden hurdlers in December, first run for Gordon Elliott.
He is Flat-bred, where Kalkir is from a jumping family. Either one could win this but you’d fancy Kalkir to come out best at Chelters.
Don’t forget that, if you back ‘Vince’, you must have a saver on Chatham House Rule (same stable); if you back Kalkir, you are warned to ‘leave a pound’ on Petite Parisienne (same stable). It doesn’t get any easier, does it.
1.45 Leopardstown Paul Nolan has won this three times in the decade and I took 14.5 on BETFDAQ early mouse, Solita, a King’s Theatre mare who will be suited by the fast pace. This strong van traveller should be shorter in running for a trade. Seems a good thing for a place. Nap.
2.15 Leopardstown (Deloitte Novice Hurdle) Another kingmaker race for Cheltenham, the last two winners, Vautour and Champagne Fever, going on to win the Supreme Novice Hurdle and others in the last seven years finishing in the first four in the same race at the festival.
Willie Mullins gives himself four chances of a hat-trick in the race, with Ruby Walsh’s pick Nichols Canyon, not always fluent nor able to settle but has had only three starts.
He is entitled to improve. So, too, McKinley, despite having seven starts, since he’s worked his way up to a Grade-1 success on the last day.
The most exciting of the Mullins quartet – in the longer term – may be Alvisio Ville, a tall, imposing chaser-to-be who, despite kicking a few hurdles out of the way, was impressive on this course in December.
Sempre Medici has also appeared over hurdles only twice, yet might have beaten Jollyallan at Kempton but for a mistake at the last. But that makes him Listed/Grade 3. McKinley and Nichols Canyon are already Grade-1 winners.
If I am to continue the Pricewise challenge, I must tip in this race, which is the blind leading the blind. All I can say is that McKinley took a step forward on the last day, Nichols Canyon a step backward, and McKinley is a pound clear in the official ratings.
The punt for the Neptune, Alvisio Ville, and the fourth Mullins runner, Sempre Medici, are short of experience (usually horses with three or four starts win this). Dunguib had had only two races over the sticks but he had been a champion bumper winner.
McKinley was a massive 19.0 early mouse on BETDAQ but we’ll have to save on Alvisio Ville. If the saver wins and Pricewise fails to draw, I won’t feel guilty about claiming a point. After all, he will have lost money, and the way was open for him to cover his back, as I am doing.
2.45 Leopardstown Pricewise is at it again, looking for value in a novice event. In fact, the value might be in trying to find an RSA bet from one of these before the race, since this was the route taken by Bostons Angel (2011) and Cooldine (2009) to success in the big ’un at Cheltenham.
As I write, the RSA offers about those in this race are 9.4 Valseur Lido, 23.0 Apache Stronghold, 37.0 Le Vent d’Antan, 37.0 Adriana Des Mottes, 37.0 Shanahan’s Turn, 41.0 Rule The World, 45.0 Jarry d’Honeur, 48.0 the Tullow Tank.
One of them could win this and crash in price for the RSA, creating a trading situation, with the idea of nicking a free bet on the race.
Apache Stronghold has been beaten by one of the RSA favourites, Don Poli, and was outgunned by Valseur Lido at Fairyhouse in November because of some tired-looking jumping.
He jumped better in (because of)? a slower race over 3m on today’s course on heavy, running up to Don Poli, but is back in trip here on a better surface.
Rule The World and the five-year-old Adriana Des Mottes were one-two at Fairyhouse on this kind of ground, with Rule The World now weighted to just about reverse the placings, but the younger horse has the potential to improve.
Seven-year-olds completely dominate the RSA (13 wins from 15) and have five wins in the last six seasons in this race today. All in all, Apache Stronghold is worth a pound at that 23.0 for the RSA and at 5.8 today. The favourite as saver again.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 1.5pts win and 5.5pts place SOLITA (place nap, 1.45 Leopardstown)
BET 1pt win and place McKINLEY and 2pts win (stakes saver) ALVISIO VILLE (2.15 Leopardstown)
BET 4pts win APACHE STRONGHOLD and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) VALSEUR LIDO (2.45 Leopardstown)
BET 3.3pts win FOXROCK (3.50 Leopardstown)
ANTE-POST: BET (win 40) 1.8pts win APACHE STRONGHOLD (RSA Chase, Cheltenham)
ANTE-POST: BET (win 40) 10pts win DODGING BULLETS (Champion Chase, Cheltenham)
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