ONCE MORE WITH FELIX! Daqman naps Felix Yonger in his clash with Pricewise in the Arkle at Leopardstown today. The score remains 18-6 to Daqman after a Saturday to forget.
BOLSTER BUCKS THE ODDS: Big Buck’s was beaten by a 66-1 shot but Daqman finds The Giant Bolster’s win the more remarkable. He was given contradictory aids at the same time!
Horses regularly make fools of men. And there isn’t a tipster left standing without egg on his face this weekend after the mud threw up the 66-1 beating of World Hurdlers Big Buck’s and At Fisher’s Cross, among a long list of shock results.
But The Giant Bolster’s defeat of Rocky Creek is a new one on me. Jockey Tom Scudamore described the horse after the race as an odd character, and pointed out that trainer David Bridgwater, his one-time riding colleague, was ‘a bit odd, too’. You can say that again.
I expected The Giant Bolster to employ his usual tearaway tactics and be overhauled on the run-in by the strong stayer, Rocky Creek.
Rocky Creek did indeed gallop on (into the Grand National picture) but was outgunned at the trip by a Giant Bolster who was held up until two out. And the reason for his being settled and coming from behind?
Trainer Bridgwater had fitted a hood AND first-time visors! Now hoods are to calm a horse down and visors usually to rev him up. I say no more. But I don’t think ‘odd’ is quite the word for horse or handler.
They will go down in history as, in racing parlance, ‘characters.’ As Scudamore added: ‘David threw everything at The Giant Bolster. And it worked.’
Well done, David with your Goliath act; well done The Giant Bolster; and, last but not least, well-done the droll Tom Scu. But how can you bet when results hinge on such a challenge to chance? The answer lies in the one thing this column got right on Saturday.
We reported in the introduction: ‘FABULOUS BETDAQ VALUE: Check out the 3.25 Leopardstown, where the Total SP last year was 159%. When Daqman made his selections this morning, the BETDAQ orange added up to 109%.’
And the Total SP, the massive bookmaker take-out, the over-the-top overround in yesterday’s renewal of the same race? Another 159%.
It’s plain and simple, this one – remove your blinkers – you are, literally, 50% better off taking BETDAQ offers than betting at SP; at least, you are at Leopardstown.
We are back there today. Or rather, while on-course punters prepare to get another soaking – and I don’t mean the rain – you and I are nowhere near Leopardstown.
We reside, ready to pounce with our faithful mouse, in the comfort of yet another BETDAQ delight: 103% on the Irish Champion Hurdle this morning. Can you stop giving money away, you lads! You’re embarrassing the bookies..
1.30 Leopardstown (Arkle Novice Chase) The Jewish phrase, Mazel Tov, can be used for Good Luck before the event or Congratulations afterwards.
So far this season, we’ve been able to say it six times, before and after Mozoltov’s three consecutive wins though, be warned, that only one – ‘on the last day,’ as they say in Ireland – was over fences.
He absolutely strolled home that day at Fairyhouse, the form being tied to winners before (at Punchestown) and after that event.
Fairyhouse and Punchestown are both right-handed: Molotov has run only once (beaten) left-handed, like today. And two horses have already overtaken him today. In the betting.
A 103% BETDAQ orange (yes, more fantastic value) shows the soft-heavy winner, Molotov a few decimal points behind both Felix Yonger and Defy Logic, as I write.
Felix Yonger, from the same stable as Molotov, appears to be the choice of jockey Ruby Walsh, who swerved all possible rides at Leopardstown – and Cheltenham – yesterday to partner Annie Power to victory at Doncaster. This Walsh chap seems to know what he’s about, wouldn’t you say!
The result today may be decided by the weather. If we are indeed sheltering with our mouse from heavy rain, then it goes against Felix Yonger. The horse that beat him over Christmas – also a Mullins! – did so because of the boggy conditions.
Felix had finished in front of the same horse earlier on the kind of ground that is forecast for today, good to soft. If the rain doesn’t come in quantity (forecast ‘showers’).
It’s a tough one that gives me pause enough to leave my cornflakes to get as soggy as Saturday’s conditions. In fact, Mozoltov and Felix alike also have to Defy Logic, second to Felix at Punchestown but an improved horse over today’s course and distance on soft on the last day.
However, the one Defy Logic beat at Leopardstown, Trifolium, had been hammered 15 lengths – though he was receiving weight – by Felix Yonger at Punchestown on a yielding surface three weeks beforehand.
Defy Logic and Felix Yonger were better hurdlers than Mozoltov on the ratings: 148 Defy Logic, 145 Felix Yonger, 144 Mozoltov.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: You can only add two and two together and hope it doesn’t add up to make five like yesterday! Ruby’s choice, the yielding not heavy surface and the Trofolium line all suggest Felix Yonger.
2.35 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Hurdle) The Big Buck’s run came to an end yesterday, his first reverse in his last 19 starts. Now here’s Hurricane Fly trying to win his 19th Grade 1.
Time for him to give way to a new ‘monster’. But will it be today? Is Our Conor the new kid on the block? Or Jezki?
Hurricane Fly beat Jezki over CD at Christmas, when the pace was against 2m4f winner Jezki and he had to be switched. But he still needs to show further improvement.
Our Conor won up the hill at Cheltenham, suggesting he, too, has stamina but the second and third in his Triumph Hurdle have won only one class-2 between them since that day.
And Our Conor was also behind Hurricane Fly in that Christmas CD race. In fact, the order in that day – Hurricane Fly, Jezki, Our Conor, Captain Cee Bee – will be repeated unless the Fly has an off-day or unless Jezki can make the necessary improvement. We can’t bet on it.
SEDGEFIELD: The one-time Grade 2 scorer in Ireland, Tranquil Sea (2.45) could return to winning form after running well enough behind Renard at Chepstow after a break.
Sedgefield specialist Tahiti Pearl has crept up the handicap despite a bridesmaid string of seconds, and the others all have to bounce back from poor recent form.
Shadows Lengthen fell when held by Tahiti Pearl last time out, and it’s a year since Consigliere got within 18 lengths of the winner. Dunowen Point, back up in trip, could be the danger but he still has to prove that he’s recovered from his Topham Trophy exertions over the Grand National fences in the Spring.
An improved run would suggest that he could make a point in the minor Spring Nationals. You read it here first.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 each)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) FELIX YONGER (1.30 Leopardstown)
BET 9pts win TRANQUIL SEA (2.45 Sedgefield)
DAQ MUTIPLES: 1p win double the two.
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