IRISH CAN SAIL TO VICTORY IN THE ‘WINDMILL TROPHY’ Winners have been blowing in the wind as paper favourites go limp in the rain but there are settled conditions today with a ‘fairly sunny’ forecast for York and ‘cloudy with sunshine’ for the second day running in Paris, where Pricewise and Daqman clash in the big race, the Group-1 Prix du Moulin. It’s ‘the Longchamp-windmill trophy’, with Daqman’s verdict going to the Irish.
Daqman 67, Pricewise 31 (678pts between them to 10pts level stakes)
Bulls-eye naps (7-15) 46% (252 points profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps (20-30) 66% for 98pts profit to 20-point stakes
SURPRISE RESULTS ARE COMING FROM ‘HIDDEN HORSES’ First Daqman dissects the market trends and finds that they lay bare big value in BETDAQ. He warns that ‘hidden horses’ that emerge with autumn in the air have been springing surprise results. He hopes to find some at York.
BETDAQ VALUE AGAINST BOOKIE STING
It’s almost like a new season. Autumn blues for punters continued in the air yesterday when Ascot completed 12 consecutive races without an outright favourite winning; Haydock 14.
But, despite the demise of favourites, on-course bookmakers continued to take liberties with high overrounds. Though only a co-favourite won all day at Haydock, the SP Total on the last race produced a sting of 137%. It was supposed to be the punters’ getting-out stakes, not theirs!
There’s never been a better advert for XSP, our own exchange starting price on BETDAQ, which has been getting rave reviews at the big meetings.
And morning offers on BETDAQ make a major contribution to value hunting. At 8.45 this morning, I found Fontwell total percentages in the orange of 107% overall in three races and 109% for two.
These figures speak for themselves. BETDAQ is the only place to be, better value for the bettor all round from early shows to SP.
You can trap some of the ‘strange’ results by spotting the ‘hidden horses’ at this time of year?
In researching the returns at York and Haydock, I found 50% winners – yes, half – had had a maximum of four runs this year, newcomers or nearly so, or those lightly raced and unexposed. Let’s try and find one or two of those for today.
YOU MUST HAVE A DOUBLE AT THE BAR
1.00 Longchamp There’s a strong Anglo-Irish raid on Paris. The opening two-year-olds’ race (Group 3) sees Newmarket and Ascot winner Al Dabaran in the all blue of Godolphin likely to hold off the consistent Listed-level performer Happy Bere.
1.35 Longchamp The juvenile-fillies’ Group 3 equivalent sees Sir Mark Prescott try again to get a Pattern result and some black type for Alpinista, who seemed to take an instant dislike to Goodwood, before and during the Prestige Stakes.
Pascal Bary is in top gear and Kenlova’s 7f third at Deauville, staying on, suggests that whatever beats her wins this mile.
3.25 Longchamp (Prix Gladiateur) Last year’s winner of the Prix Gladiateur, Called To The Bar, out of his depth behind Stradivarius in the Ascot Gold Cup, should return to the winner’s enclosure, back to his trip. But race of the day at Longchamp is the Moulin:
ROMANISED THE PICK IN PARIS MATCH
2.50 Longchamp (Prix du Moulin, 1m, Group 1): This could be a Paris match between two top Irish colts of different generations, Romanised and Circus Maximus.
Conditions should be right for Romanised, the 2018 winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas, who bagged another Group 1 on the last day, the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville.
He did not beat Shaman as far as did Circus Maximus in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but they met at levels (Phoenix Of Spain only sixth), whereas Romanised had to give 6lb and scored readily.
England’s champion jockey elect Oisin Murphy misses York prospects to ride Kick On. Sixth in the Newmarket Guineas, he found the French Derby too far but was back to form, returned to a mile, on the last day. Could do with a drop of rain this morning.
BALLOONS COULD FLY ON THIS COURSE
2.20 York Passion And Glory came good on the last day at Windsor, only the third race of his life. Needs this to be sure of a place in the Cambridgeshire field.
Cieren Fallon takes over from Oisin Murphy, who is wanted for Kick On in the Moulin at Longchamp. Against him is that three-year-olds have never won this race.
The handicapper thinks Spiorad worth 11lb for back-to-backs wins at Redcar and Thirsk in lower class, which puts him up a couple of grades, but connections prefer this single step forward. That’s why he’s got to carry 9st 12lb.
2.55 York (Garrowby Stakes) Red Balloons (19.5 in the BETDAQ orange)has won a sprint here and also ran well in a Group 3 on the course in July when third to the subsequent ‘Golden Whip’ winner in Germany (Group 2).
She’s had just the two runs this year and three-year-olds are 50% in this race, so the other one I fancy is Prince Des Sables (19.0). The pair were behind Perfection at Pontefract but her 3lb penalty brings them all close together.
FOREWARNING IS FOREARMED FOR THIS
4.00 York Six out of eight winners of this two-miler had already shown their quality, to be given 9st 9lb or more.
Platform Nineteen and Funny Man are progressive three-year-olds but six second-season animals have failed in this, one a strong favourite, in the four years since Sir Mark Prescott saddled the only second-season animal to score in the decade.
I’ll try Forewarning (at 9.0 on BETDAQ), who improved for a breathing op when scoring at Pontefract, stopping a hat-trick bid by the third horse, a favourite who was backed as if the race was a formality.
4.30 York A 6f sprint for three-year-olds, with a lightly-raced CD winner, Jonah Jones, down in the handicap now for a trainer just struck form (five winners in three days).
Megan Nicholls has kept the ride on the consistent Roulston Scar (3.25 offers) after a close third in a big field here at York on the last day.
2.20 York (win 10 each)
BET 4.25pts win PASSION AND GLORY
BET 1.35pts win SPIORAD
2.50 Longchamp (win 20)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) ROMANISED
2.55 York (win 30 each)
BET 1.6pts win PRINCE DES SABLES
BET 1.6pts win RED BALLOONS
3.25 Longchamp (win 10)
BET 10pts win CALLED TO THE BAR
4.00 York (win 20, place win 10)
BET 2.5pts win and 5pts place FOREWARNING
4.30 York (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win ROULSTON SCAR
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