34 NON-RUNNERS LEAVE HAYDOCK HIGH AND DRY: A warm drying night created a nightmare for punters at Haydock yesterday as the probable runners, too, dried up: 34 of the 88 horses due to race there were withdrawn because of firm ground, after watering was suspended but forecast rain failed to arrive. In contrast to the ‘very fast’ ground, five out of seven events were run in slow time, which suggests the form should be ignored.
DOES YORK DRAW YOU OR A DAY IN PARIS? York has two tricky sprints today but the draw might help. Or you can spend your day in Paris where English Classic colts run in the big races.
HEADLINES:
ONE FROM THE CRYSTAL BALL
MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU
COROEBUS SET TO COME GOOD
BUICK CAN LAND BETS BLOWS
ONE FROM THE CRYSTAL BALL
⭕ 2.20 York The low six stalls have won eight out of nine in this 6f (class 3) handicap. Kevin Ryan has farmed the race (3-5), and so Aleezdancer (gate 5) seems well placed to add to his recent Ripon success. He put two wins together last Spring.
Aphelios (out of 3) has never been out of the frame in seven starts but is up in grade for this, worse off with Another Investment (2) after their one-two at Carlisle last month.
The Organiser (4) has changed stables which might breathe life into him, but he’s winner only of his maiden, always a bad sign. The Dunkirk Lads (6) has a poor strike rate (2-18); his stable currently even worse (7-90).
Lucky Man (from the one stall) has twice been second in big fields at York, from draws in 2 and 9, and has finished in the first four 11 times out of his last 13 starts. He’s 8lb higher than his last win.
The one to blow the stats might be Pink Crystal, runner-up here out of gate 11; back to her best trip today out of 12.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5 Pink Crystal, 6 Aleezdancer
MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU
⭕ 2.55 York (Garrowby Stakes, Listed) LAYS LOGIC Ed Walker, going for a hat-trick in this race, has been missing strike with six consecutive favourites beaten in the fortnight and currently 1-20.
His four-year-old, Primo Bacio, has tried nine Group races – placed in one – dropping down to Listed level here in the Spring of 2021 to land his sole turf win.
FORM: Gale Force Maya has better recent form: third in a Group 3 and winner of the Dash here, before a Listed second at Pontefract.
Seven times a winner in Ireland, Prisoner’s Dilemma travels to UK for the first time. Runner-up in the Curragh’s own Dash.
He was beaten only half a length, giving 5lb to a subsequent Group-placed four-year-old filly.
But that filly is about 4lb behind Gala Force Maya on York form, so Prisoner’s Dilemma, giving away weight today, seems to be up against it.
Lampang’s three runs at York have all been moderate. Ventura Diamond needs rain. Blackrod (first-time cheekpieces) and Pure Dreamer (tongue-tie) bring better handicap form to the table.
BETDAQ value 3.55 Gala Force Maya
COROEBUS SET TO COME GOOD
⭕ 2.48 Longchamp (Prix Du Moulin) Charlie Appleby, who enjoyed a run of six winners out of nine up to and including the first race at Haydock yesterday, tries to win his first Prix Du Moulin.
The one-mile Group-1 has twice gone to Aidan O’Brien who challenges Apppleby’s Guineas winner Coroebus with his 2020 Breeders Cup Mile hero, Order Of Australia, who relished the very firm ground that day.
The Australia colt has won twice at just Group-2 level in 10 starts since. But he has to be given his chance here, as length-and-a-quarter runner-up in the Moulin a year ago, even though the winner that day kicked clear. His name was Baaeed.
And on today’s ground last month, Order Of Australia was a length and threequarters in front of Coroebus when they were fourth and fifth in the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville (good to soft).
However, that was Coroebus’ first run back after an enforced holiday (abscess on a hind pastern), so he is expected to turn around those placings this afternoon, though 2lb worse off.
Close up in the ratings to both is the 2020 British Champions Miler, but now seven years old, The Revenant, fourth giving 3lb to Baaeed in the same championship race last October.
Ed Walker’s Dreamloper won the Ispahan at Longchamp a furlong further in the Spring (good to soft), back to back with success over a similar 1m 1f trip at Newmarket
Lusail (Richard Hannon) was beaten only a head by Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes but was always held and his winning form is up to 7f.
BETDAQ value 2.96 Coroebus
BUICK CAN LAND BETS BLOWS
⭕ 3.33 Longchamp (Prix Du Prince d’Orange) Star of India 108, West Wind Blows 104 are the official ratings between the two English raiders in this 1m 2f Group 3. But that tells only part of the story; both have won no higher than Listed level.
Ninth in the Epsom Derby, West Wind Blows is with Simon and Ed Crisford, who are currently having 56% success (14-25) and is ridden by William Buick, whose 20-56 is a 36% strike rate.
After winning the Dee Stakes at Chester, Star Of India was 13th in the Derby for Aidan O’Brien but has since moved to Harry Eustace, who has booked Ryan Moore for today.
Best of the home team is probably Vagalame, fifth to Vadeni in the French Derby, and Jean-Claude Rouget’s Listed winner at Compiegne, Epic Poet, who now swaps blinkers for cheekpieces.
But the German filly Mountaha will enjoy the trip, a pace runner dropping back a furlong from her fourth in the German Oaks (1m 3f)
BETDAQ value 3.0 West Wind Blows
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.20 York (win 12, win 10)
BET 3pts win PINK CRYSTAL
BET 2pts win ALEEZDANCER
2.48 Longchamp (win 12 nap)
BET 6pts win COROEBUS
2.55 York (win 10)
BET 4pts win GALA FORCE MAYA
3.33 Longchamp (win 10)
BET 5pts win WEST WIND BLOWS
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