NINE WINNERS IN THREE DAYS: Daqman yesterday made it three winning days in a row with a total of nine winners but he had only pennies in hand, with his Saturday ‘gold’ bets finishing second and third. Call it break-even.
STILL ON 40 POINTS PROFIT: His best result was his one-two in the Sandown Charge – Tickled Pink (WON 5-2) and Kingsgate Native (2nd 15-2) – and he also gave Integral (WON 4-1), but his account will show him still 40 points up since Thursday.
SPECIAL BET TOMORROW: He kicks himself for recent omissions, such as reducing a race to three on Friday but missing the winner from his bets (Doctor Parkes WON 7-1), then dropping a saver on Al Kazeem. His tidying of betting practice tomorrow will include a new Special Bet.
We could be seeing the Arc one-two this weekend. After Al Kazeem repeated his Royal Ascot win over Mukhadram – but by even further – in yesterday’s Eclipse, his main market rival for Longchamp is at Maisons-Laffitte this afternoon.
It’s an unusual test for French Derby winner Intello (2.40), dropped back to a mile, but is explained by the proven versatility of the colt with his mix of speed and stamina, and the French habit of giving a top candidate a long rest before the Arc.
With our own Derby somewhat debased, it is left to Trading Leather, who won the Curragh version, to confirm his stature in the King George.
And that’s not forgetting Novellist, the Grand Prix de Saint-cloud winner, and the Japanese champion, Orfevre. All are firmly on the road to the Arc.
Now that’s what I call a race. It is nice to have a Frankel – a local hero – but I prefer to see the outcome of an international confrontation of quality in depth. Better for betting. Better for the breed.
Talking of Local Hero. The horse of that name could be today’s Prince Of Johanne, he who waits for the big occasion and then carries weight with courage.
My two loves as a teenager were racing and a delectable and delicious older girl who, of course, sadly for me had her own eyes on older boys.
This column brings you everything and today it’s a slice of romance, as the same Miss Delectation – until recently we hadn’t met again for half a lifetime – has driven to the environs of Market Rasen to check the weather for me.
Local Hero (4.15) has never enjoyed hearing his feet rattle. He needs genuinely good ground or a bit of cut.
The love of my life (we both started work in the same office of the same newspaper) reports: ‘Heavy mist; very wet underfoot. The dew will be burned off in the day’s sun but there’s been a lot of it.’
Hopefully, we can deduce that the word ‘firm’ will not appear in the Rasen going return, and the ground will be to Local Hero’s liking.
Further note of romance: my mother once worked at the Scamblesby, near Louth, stables of Local Hero’s trainer, Steve Gollings. Hankies out, lads! This beats the soaps any day.
But will Local Hero provide a happy ending? Well, first of all, he’s dropped in class after taking on the best in the NH pattern, Group 2 and 3, and a brace of Listeds, in five of his last seven starts.
In amongst them, he went the few miles down the road to Market Rasen and put up his usual heart-stopping (and I don’t mean romance!) performance there, when just managing to get up in the dying strides.
The good news is that such a finish suggests he will be suited by today’s extra two furlongs; even better news is that, although he has top weight today, he’s down 4lb below his winning mark in that race, and he’d pulled off a similar feat on the course 10 weeks earlier, coming like Chris Froome off a strong pace.
So what’s the bad news? In two words: ‘Henderson’ and ‘McCoy’, Nicky the new champion trainer and A P the champion jockey for almost as long it seems as my on-off relationship with Miss Delectation.
Henderson-McCoy team up with First In The Queue, whose going requirements are similar to Local Hero’s, so they, too, will be glad of the foggy, foggy dew in Lincolnshire.
But, unlike Local Hero, this is not a horse for the big occasion; he’s one of those once-a-year winners who can’t put his act together two races in a row. He won three weeks ago but his form after a win is 030030, and he has a poor record going right-handed (1-12).
Yet First In The Queue is 5.8 favourite on BETDAQ, as I write, with Local Hero out at 8.0. That looks like Henderson overbetting to me.
The only other winners in the race at class-2 level or higher are Rumble Of Thunder, who won a Listed at Market Rasen, and Smalib Monteg who, unlike the ‘Queue’ beast, has shown he’s capable of back-to-back wins.
Snag for his backers is that his form right-handed is 0-13 (left-handed 5-11) and bigger worries may be the novices Forresters Folly, Swampfire and Mojolika, all winners going this clockwise way round.
As revealed in the Racing Post form section, Rumble Of Thunder is better off with Local Hero for half a length on Haydock running and – although the Post has missed this one – Kayaan can meet Local Hero on improved terms for his third to that one last September.
And what about the Henderson second string, I hear you cry? Cape Express gets the ‘black blob’ as the Post’s top-rated for the race.
VERDICT: I thought I’d look at the race in some depth, or be accused of sentiment. My three against the field: Rumble Of Thunder (cheekpieces first time), Swampfire (Richard Johnson booked) and Local Hero.
A tough contest, with recommended SP on the Racing Post site: 118%. What, you say, you must be joking.. not with 107% on BETDAQ this morning! My true sentiments exactly.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each): Value is when the offers add up to less than 110% probability and are dubbed ‘gold’ when Daqman opposes the favourite in such a race.
GOLD VALUE BETS 3.7pts win on each ARGAKI and FULL TOSS (3.00 Ayr)
VALUE BET: 8pts win (nap) LOST LEGEND (3.45 Market Rasen)
GOLD VALUE BETS 2.8pts win LOCAL HERO, 2.2pts win SWAMPFIRE and 1.9pts win RUMBLE OF THUNDER (4.15 Market Rasen)
BET 4pts win SAGREDO (4.45 Market Rasen)
BET 8pts win ON THE FEATHER (5.15 Market Rasen)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double INTELLO (2.40 Maisons-Laffitte) and LOST LEGEND (3.45 Market Rasen)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also
log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
