THE FUTURE OF TIGER ROLL IN DAQMAN NEXT WEEK: Daqman checks out the card at Newbury today but begins a betting series which will focus next week on Cheltenham myths, Fortune Cookies and the future of Tiger Roll, who runs today. Headlines:
🔹 IT’S BECOME A GUESSING GAME
🔹 MAKE-OR-BREAK FOR TIGER ROLL
🔹 DHOWIN TOOK MORNING MONEY
🔹 CONDITIONAL LOOKS BIG AT 10.5
🔹 FANION IN FAVOUR AFTER ASCOT
🔹 SKELTON’S KEEN TO WIN ON CAD
DAQMAN BAGS BIG BETDAQ OFFERS ALL DAY TODAY: Daqman’s bets today include 15.5 back and lay; plus win (and some places) at 48.0, 22.0, 12.0, 10.5 and 9.0. The nap is at Newbury.
IT’S BECOME A GUESSING GAME..
Did you guess right? Almost every weekend now there’s a star name bites the dust and another one that ‘bounces back’; you have to guess which one goes which way.
The scene was set on Friday when a horse called Ryedale Racer with form figures PP-PP00 won at 80-1. No, not a star name but he was in comparison to his previous form! He absolutely romped home.
Now move on up the scale and guess the outcome for Cyrname, backed IN to 5-4 favourite at Ascot, and Goshen, eased OUT to 100-30 at Wincanton. Which one won?
🐎 CYRNAME, Grade 2 winner at Wetherby in October, but pulled up in the King George on Boxing Day, is beaten seven and a half lengths in first-time cheekpieces.
🐎 GOSHEN, beaten four times in a row with a myriad of excuses, and easy to back yesterday, trots up 22 lengths and 19 lengths in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. But we haven’t finished.
🐎 SONG FOR SOMEONE, who completed a hat-trick by taking the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, is backed in to 11-10 favourite over Goshen as the big improver of the race, but it was clear from the ‘off’ that he was sluggish, not himself. Driven, pushed along…beaten 22 lengths.
🐎 TIGER ROLL: You still haven’t finished. You have another guessing game: will Tiger Roll ‘bounce back’ today and win for the first time since the Grand National of 2019?
He won the NH Chase first run back in 2017, and the cross-country first time in 2018.
That was the stepping-stone to his first National in 2018 and he did it again (cross country then National) in 2019.
But he’s been beaten three times in four races since, including 17 lengths on his beloved cross-country course at Cheltenham.
Yet another guessing game for you. How will he do returning in a hurdle, a Grade 2 at that?
Guessing-game answer in 2019: he WON it at 25-1. Guessing-game answer in 2020: he ran in it again and LOST 14 lengths.
The punter gets no satisfactory prognosis before the race, and only standard reporting after the race (usually incorporating that magic event ‘he bounced back’. Or, about the losers ‘horses are not machines’).
We don’t get much transparency from rave-a-minute presenters with one eye on the ratings, who’s preferred epithets are ‘absolutely brilliant’ or ‘sadly a disappointment today.’ They could be talking about suet dumplings.
MAKE-OR-BREAK FOR TIGER ROLL
⭕ 2.47 Navan (Boyne Hurdle) I’d like to pitch a different question. If Tiger Roll flops again, should he be retired? We can’t say we weren’t warned about today.
A confident Gordon Elliott tells the Racing Post: “He’s absolutely flying. He’s just a different horse now to this time last year. It was well documented that he had a setback last year and it was all a bit of a rush to get him to Cheltenham.
“He’s back to his old self out on the gallops now and is bouncing again. We schooled him over cross-country fences a couple of times last week and he went well.’
So, is everybody happy? Not until we see this latest bounce back. In fact, punters don’t believe a word of it. Tiger Roll is 15.5 in the BETDAQ orange as I write at 9.30 a.m.
By this time anything so far out with the washing has usually been ‘negatived’ by connections or is a likely non-runner. Or both!
His army of followers may want some of that; maybe a whole lot of that! So the BETDAQ bet must be a small back and lay.
Beacon Edge’s third to Honeysuckle and Ronald Pump in the Hattons Grace must be hard to beat.
DHOWIN TOOK MORNING MONEY
⭕ 1.15 Newbury Paul Nicholls, who had hoped to see cheekpieces revive Cyrname, replaces hood with tongue-tie on CD winner Good Ball.
But this is Nicky Henderson’s home ground and he goes for a hat-trick in the race with Listed-mares runner-up Ahorsewithnoname.
Favourites have a 66% strike rate, which suggests one of these two should beat the hoi polloi!
⭕ 1.50 Newbury There are just two CD winners in this but both are old boys – Dell’Arca and Vive Le Roi – hanging on to their ratings by virtue of past exploits and with more weight than normally carried to win this 3m hurdle (8-9 were set 11st 1lb or less).
The money this morning was for Dhowin (still 9.0 in the BETDAQ orange at time of writing) as, staying on at Ascot and in the Lanzarote, he tackles 3m for the first time.
The Jeremy Scott stable will be buoyant after Dashel Drasher yesterday and Sizable Sam is on the upgrade. Es Perfecto makes his handicap debut and Southfield Harvest is back to his winning trip.
Kitty’s Light, Present Value and Palmers Hill are back hurdling and you could back half a dozen here and only get your money back at best.
CONDITIONAL LOOKS BIG AT 10.5
⭕ 2.25 Newbury (Denman Chase) A remarkable kingmaker race, won by Long Run, Silviniaco Conti, Coneygree and Native River (three times) to name but a few, as they say.
I’m actually reading ‘can Lostintranslation bounce back?’ Team Tizzard got this nine-year-old within a pound of their Native River at one stage. More wind surgery (a year after the first lot) might help but the stable is still a long way from risking a bet on.
Clan Des Obeaux won this in 2019, the year of his King George, but mistakes at Kempton this time around saw him give way to stablemate Frodon for the King’s crown.
Cepage was back to form at Chepstow but, like Kalashnikov, has never won this far.
On drying ground, I could fancy BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 12.0 Secret Investor, last year’s runner-up to Native River. Goes well after a break.
The Conditional (BETDAQ 10.5) doesn’t seem ground dependent. Twice placed in the Ladbrokes Trophy and winner of the Ultima last March, has not won in this grade but this could be his big chance, with doubts about the market leaders.
FANION IN FAVOUR AFTER ASCOT
⭕ 3.00 Newbury (Game Spirit Chase) Nicky Henderson’s preserve with five winners in the last nine years, including three in a row for Altior.
Last year’s runner-up to the Henderson monster was Sceau Royal, while Nicky has RSA winner Champ but ominously dropped back in trip, and absent almost a year.
He rather sums up the frustration punters have at the moment when he says: ‘I don’t think where he finishes is as important as getting the run.’
Paul Nicholls sets them all a tactical race with three candidates: Tingle Creek runner-up Greaneteen (BETDAQ 5.8) surely his best over Dolos and Magic Saint.
Fanion d’Estruval (4.3) is a substantial gamble with the bookies for this after his fourth in the Clarence House but needs rain.
There is nothing between Fanion and Magic Saint (9.4) on their one-two in a Cheltenham handicap in November but Bryan Carver cannot claim in a Graded race.
SKELTON’S KEEN TO WIN ON CAD
⭕ 3.35 Newbury The Skeltons are in flying form to pinch Gordon Elliott’s quote, and Cadzand (7.4 BETDAQ) is on the up, his Kempton win boosted by the runner-up’s winning the Scottish County Hurdle.
By coincidence another fancy for this race, Fred (48.0), won the Scottish Supreme Novices Hurdle a year or so back. Ignore his attempt at chasing since.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three years in seven, and Guard Your Dreams (22.0) finished strongly at Sandown and, I’m told, is now a ‘mistake in the handicap’ on home form.
1.15 Newbury (win 10, nap)
BET 3pts win AHORSEWITHNONAME
1.50 Newbury (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win DHOWIN
2.25 Newbury (win 20)
BET 2pts win THE CONDITIONAL
BET 1.75pts win SECRET INVESTOR
2.47 Navan (win 10, win 20)
BET 3pts win BEACON EDGE
BET 1pt win TIGER ROLL
3.00 Newbury (win 10)
BET 2pts win GREANETEEN
BET 2pt s win FANION D’ESTRUVAL
3.35 Newbury (win 50, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 7.75pts win CADZAND
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.4pts win GUARD YOUR DREAMS
BULL’S-EYE BET: 1pt win and place FRED
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