OUTSIDERS TODAY AT 10.0, 13.0, 23.0: Daqman rues the loss of Wincanton today. ‘I could lose out on a walk-over in my current form on the poor-quality cards,’ says Daqman. That’s his comment on napping in a two-horse affair today at Carlisle but there are small bets, too, at 10.0 (twice), 13.0 and 23.0
BRITISH CHAMPIONS DAY COUNTDOWN: Super Saturday is just around the corner and Daqman says you need a three-year-old in the Fillies And Mares.
CHAMPIONS CLASH OF THE EMILYS
⭕ 2.40 Ascot, Saturday (British Champions Fillies And Mares) Winners of this come from the Arc meeting (example, Hydrangea) or, as so often at this time of year, from form three months old or so (Star Catcher) before the firm ground set in.
Last year’s winner, Eshaada, now four, had no winning form since the previous May but this season has managed to find a bit of soft ground during the summer.
However, it is not the norm to see a filly or mare do the double in this race and it is very much the norm for a three-year-old to win; they are five in a row, seven out of the last eight, and one of this year’s second-season probables, Mimikyu, beat Eshaada in the ‘fillies’ St Leger’, Park Hill Stakes.
Of the older horses, Sea La Rosa, Insinuendo and Verry Elleegant were at the Arc meeting but Emily Dickinson is the only three-year-old to have raced there.
She is the sole representative for Aidan O’Brien, who has won the race twice in the last five years.
Emily Dickinson has won only her maiden, always a bad sign. She appears to have improved in her races over 1m 6f but now drops back to 1m 4f.
Another ‘Emily’, Emily Upjohn (Team Gosden), is that Spring-form animal coming back end of season, as winner of the Musidora and second in the Epsom Oaks.
Eternal Pearl, a steady improver all season, is with the all-conquering Charlie Appleby and William Buick team. She is four in a row (two of them Group 3) since taking a class-5 novice at Kempton in late June.
GERONIMO CAN TAKE OSCAR SCALP
⭕ 1.00 Carlisle With the loss of the quality meeting at Wincanton, the racing is abysmal stuff most of the day but the Carlisle meeting opens with the overall form of the field showing 13 previous victories.
However, all 13 strikes were performed by just two sequence horses, one of them over fences and the other over hurdles.
Tommy’s Oscar, rated 155, has won eight hurdle races, including the Grade-2 Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock. Prefers soft ground.
Geronimo, off a rating of 138 today, has won four novice chases on the trot, including over today’s course and distance. Prefers a sound surface and the official going is good.
Tommy’s Oscar trainer, Ann Hamilton, hasn’t had a winner for 190 days and Tommy hasn’t raced for 212 days.
Donald McCain (Geronimo) has had two winners from his last three starts, Geronimo being one of them, just a couple of weeks ago at Warwick, where he made all.
He’s expected to do so again under Brian Hughes, who is on 86 winners in the current jumps season. I could get even money on BETDAQ this morning.
ROCCA TO ROLL AGAIN FOR HUGHES
⭕ 2.40 Brighton Gary Moore (Atwixaday) has won this race two years out of three, but both winners had had two runs and had been placed the last day.
Marcus Tregoning does well at his local tracks – Brighton and Salisbury – and he is in good form, booking smart claimer Harry Davies for Dumfries.
Dumfries, whose sire scored on his second start, was given just hand riding when fourth at Ffos Las, first time on a racecourse.
⭕ 3.20 Carlisle Nicky Richards two runners in October have both won and he has three chances at today’s Carlisle meeting.
It’s Brian Hughes again on She’s A Rocca in conditions better than she encountered at Perth when beaten favourite the last day.
At least she knows how to win, and she does it second or third run back after a break, so that’s another tick in the box.
Runwiththetide has a lot to prove. Sole success so far was a four-runner Point when one pulled up and another fell.
Azef Des Mottes has pulled up twice in his last three starts and Bridge Road is a 10-race maiden.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 10.0 She’s A Rocca
ODISSEO BIG AT THE BETDAQ 10.0
⭕ 8.00 Chelmsford Three-year-olds dominate (10-10) and Andrea Atzeni is in top gear; three winners from seven rides, none out of the first four.
Odisseo, who has an excellent AW record, is his only ride of the day. Marco Botti’s three year-old won three out of four last year at this time, and is now back to his last winning mark. BETDAQ 10.0.
⭕ 8.30 Chelmsford Spinaround won the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee Handicap here in June and has kept strong company in class 2, including in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, along with Bolthole.
Another CD winner here at Chelmsford, Royal Pleasure is back here for compensation after aiming at top turf class-2 contests, including the Victoria Cup.
Aeonian has been gelded and – now in a first-time tongue tie – could improve on four solid efforts, always in the frame.
BETDAQ value 4.5 Aeonian, 13 Spinaround, 23 Royal Pleasure
1.00 Carlisle (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win GERONIMO
2.40 Brighton (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win DUMFRIES
3.20 Carlisle (win 20)
BET 2pts win SHE’S A ROCCA
8.00 Chelmsford (win 20)
BET 2pts win ODISSEO
8.30 Chelmsford (win 10, win 12 x 2)
BET 2.75pts win AEONIAN
BET 1pt win SPINAROUND
BET 0.5pts win ROYAL PLEASURE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.