ODDS-ON SNOWFALL STAYS IN THE FILLIES AND MARES: Aidan O’Brien will not take on top colt Mishriff in the Champion Stakes with Oaks winner Snowfall after all. She remains in the Fillies And Mares, third race on British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday, for which she is odds on. Daqman checks out the form.
CHAMPION JOCKEY: BATTLE AT CHELMSFORD TONIGHT: William Buick’s double at Nottingham yesterday put him within two of Oisin Murphy in the final stages of the jockeys’ title race. The action is all at Chelmsford tonight, and Daqman gives you a blow-by-blow account in advance of the seven races.
SNOWFALL SCARES THEM OFF
⭕ 2.35 Ascot, Saturday preview (British Champions Fillies And Mares): Title-chasing William Buick won last year’s running of this third championship race on Saturday’s card with Wonderful Tonight, putting three-year-olds 7-3 up in the decade.
Other notable winners were Hydrangea (2017) and Magical (2018) for Aidan O’Brien, who ducks the Champion Stakes with Snowfall: she will not be asked to face Mishriff and Adayar.
Punters thinking Snowfall would go for the Champion put their faith and good money behind Free Wind, La Petite Coco and Search For A Song in the Fillies And Mares. All are now non-runners.
Declared are: Snowfall, Albaflora, Invite, Eshaada, La Joconde, Tribal Craft, Lady Hayes and Mystery Angel
TITLE COULD GO TO THE WIRE..
Who is going to win the title? After a double at Nottingham yesterday, William Buick crept to within just two winners of Oisin Murphy, halving his lead with only three days to go.
He won two sprints back to back, the nursery on Zebelle (13-2) and a handicap on Raasel (13-8), without reply from Murphy, so that the betting for the title is now 5-6 each of two.
What if it goes right to the wire? Look at the markets for Ascot on Saturday and imagine they are still locked together.
The title could be decided right down the card, maybe to the lucky last – the finale after the five championships – and the market on the outcome of every race will be slanted by those two.
I wouldn’t want to bet which jockey wins but I know a man who does, and thinks he can win either way. ‘Jack’, an old friend, a pro punter, is not normally one to give away his secrets.
But ‘Jack’ intends to bet in the last race first! He wants to be on BOTH Buick (likely ride Matthew Flinders around 16-1) and Murphy (possibly on Sir Busker at around 25-1) in advance of the day.
He says: ‘If they are still a couple of winners apart on Saturday morning, everything they ride will be overbet, and I reckon that a finale that looks like a match between outsiders could end up with their odds cut to half or even a third at some time during the day. I can then play my advantage.’
BUICK-MURPHY ONE ALL TONIGHT
⭕ 5.30 Chelmsford Tonight Buick and Murphy clash in six races at Chelmsford, all except the 6.00 which features Buick only, so that on rides he is 7-6.
Buick has a big chance here on Alpine Lady; she is bred to enjoy this step up in trip and has finished well more than once as if she needs it.
There’s also stamina on the dam’s side of Murphy’s mount, the grey Single Minded, and the now-blinkered Mezzanotte but it may be a trip too far for Sun Rising who has won at just short of a mile but is sprint bred.
Single Minded (BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.4) had Mezzanotte back in third when a neck runner-up on his only AW start to Astaroth, who won at Kempton next time and is now 4-6.
⭕ 6.00 Chelmsford Buick walks over in the contest with Murphy (no ride) but can he win the race on Typical Woman?
The worry is her temperament; she was pushed along in the rear on her debut and was reluctant to load last time at Nottingham.
⭕ 6.30 Chelmsford I’d rather be with a lightly raced one of Saeed bin Suroor’s (Buick on Ramadhaan) than one of Jamie Osborne’s (Murphy on Notions) but best form in the race is the last-day second on turf by Al Baahy.
⭕ 7.00 Chelmsford Three-year-olds are going for a hat-trick in this and seem to have enough fire power over Discover Dubai (tongue-tie first time under Murphy) and the seven-year-old Eagle Creek.
Buick could nudge Riknnah into a return to form; a winner at Newmarket (holds If You Dare) but also at Lingfield and Wolver and now back on a man-made surface.
The worry is Prince Of Abingdon, who has been a bridesmaid in a back pew (form figures 343333) but is trying 7f for the first time.
⭕ 7.30 Chelmsford Murphy will be hoping that blinkers will inspire Golden Owl but Buick should land the bet of the evening, Lord Lovelace.
The placed horses behind him at Kempton have both won since, and on the last day he came up against Sunray Major, who then beat a big field at Ascot raised to class 3 on the first day of the month.
⭕ 8.00 Chelmsford That Dubai Icon (Murphy) hasn’t run for seven months is never any odds to trainer Saeed bin Suroor and, as a three-year-old, Far Hope (Buick) has his future before him.
I’m following the money for Montather (2-2 here at Chelmsford), who has tried top handicap company, including in the Cambridgeshire. BETDAQ 3.6 taken.
⭕ 8.30 Chelmsford This is the sort of low-level stuff (class 6) I try not to bet in, but it could be a Grandstand finish for Murphy over Buick (Aiguillette).
5.30 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win SINGLE MINDED
7.30 Chelmsford (nap)
BET 10pts win LORD LOVELACE
8.00 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 4pts win MONTATHER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.