WEATHER DECISIVE IN THE CESAREWITCH: Daqman’s ABC analysis of the Cesarewitch reveals a potentially standout three-year-old against older horses that tick the boxes, with much depending on the weather. Going firm but heavy rain sweeping across the country.
GOLDEN SPEAR IS THROWN IN
3.40 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch Stakes)
A Carrying 8st 11lb or less (80%)
B Won 1m 6f plus (80%), placed last two years
C Had already won class 2 handicap + (60%)
D Last five winners had official rating 84-88
E Drawn 1, 2, 3 and 12 or higher (100%)
F Jumps or mixed yard (50%)
X Stable in form
ABCDF Golden Spear
Fifth in this two years ago off the same mark before winning the Irish November Handicap. Hurdles career since is without a win but ran up to Stars Over The Sea back on the Flat in the Cesarewitch Trial over the Newmarket CD last month, only his second race since the Spring. Shrewd handicap stable.
A 45% strike rate for reaching the first two on Flat turf and 8lb lower now after 10 defeats since 2m 2f class-2 Pontefract trophy winner nearly a year ago following victory in the Gordon Carter at Ascot.
ABCE Making Miracles
Shot up 18lb with two wins since being gelded but didn’t show his form in the Melrose (had gone close on the same track in the Spring). Both successes on firm ground but sire Pivotal’s progeny often like plenty of cut.
ABCE Uber Cool
Stays forever, steadily progressive and up more than a stone over the last year. Three wins out of four starts since his 2018 debut, with a long break in the summer before his last success (leg badly gashed at Royal Ascot).
ABDEFX Merie Devie
Poor form at big prices, including three runs on the Flat, since winning Grade B hurdle at Punchestown Festival, but reckoned high class by trainer Willie Mullins.
Improved nearly a stone for step up in trip (three wins in a row; two over 1m 6f in class 4) but seemingly found out raised to class 2 on the last day.
Former Graded hurdler, third in the Neptune for Dan Skelton. Figures of 22112 for Richard Spencer (up to 2m, class 4 and 5) until failed in class 3 on the July Course. Aged eight now.
ABDF Cliffs Of Dover
A six-from-seven hurdles spree blew his mark and switch to the Flat this year has seen him leap a stone from three wins out of four. Raised to class 2 on the last day, he ran sixth in the Mallard behind Just In Time, with a strong run from the rear (not much room and kept on).
ABDE Night Of Glory
Hurdles winner, only 1-12 on Flat turf, but dropped nearly a stone since last summer and gamble failed in first-time blinkers at Chester last month.
Just the one Flat success last August (1m 6f, class 5) but not disgraced at higher level (form 2323) until outclassed stepped up even further, to Pattern level.
ABEFX Law Girl
Switched from hurdles, confirming on the Flat that she doesn’t act on a deep surface. Won a cup race at Gowran Park (firm) and just touched off by Limini at Leopardstown on the last day. Style of running suggests she’ll stay.
ABEF Coeur De Lion
Second 2017 Cesarewitch trial here and stone higher now but only fifth in the trial this time around. Second 2m 2f twice in between and third to Stratum and Kloud Gate at Newbury.
ABEF Vis A Vis
Well related for class and stamina, a late developer, as are so many by Dansili, and two from two since moving from France to Neil Mulholland, near Bath. Made all over Just In Time on the last day (Kempton 2m).
ABEX Royal Reserve
Only a 65 rated last year but has won (only second ever on Flat turf) and run well in big-field class-2 handicap at York since switched in the Spring to Michael Bell and ridden by Hayley Turner. Now on 90.
Steady improvement since gelded, never out of the first four in the last two years but only one Flat turf success (1m 6f, class 4)
ACFX Blue Rambler
Ticks a lot of boxes but eight years old now and, apart from hurdles win at Wetherby in 2016, all success came five years ago for Andre Fabre in France. Last of 16 in Here And Now’s race at York in August.
Third in the Mallard to Just In Time (not much room, switched and ran on strongly), a belated transition from class 4 to class 2. Placed 16 times and might improve again for the step up in trip.
Third in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and first run on the Flat since 2014 when close second for a big handicap prize (2m 1f) at the Galway Festival (placed again there four days latrer), and gave 9lb an a beating to Law Girl at Leopardstown last month.
BCEFX Low Sun
As lazy as sin, according to trainer Willie Mullins. Yet Grade B hurdles win and place at Punchestown and Galwy Festivals on soft, climbing to a 141 rating, and 9lb rise on the Flat for scoring at the Curragh (2m firm).
BCEFX Speedo Boy
Aimed high at Royal Ascot and Cheltenham last year, winner of the Brown Jack Stakes (2m) in July, third to Here And Now at York and fifth (not much room, kept on well) to Just In Time in the Mallard last month.
Ex-Gosden won first time over hurdles for Willie Mullins and placed Grade 3. Third in the Ascot Stakes to a Mullins winner, and took the JLT Cup at Newbury in first-time hood, the two races costing a 10lb rise.
BCEFX Whiskey Sour
Transformed by Willie Mullins, and three in a row last summer, including two in same week at 2017 Galway Festival, then Future Champion Novice at Leopardstown and third County Hurdle at Cheltenham. Not in same form since but Ebor gamble in August (sixth, kept on)
BCEF Just In Time
Three wins from last four starts, raised 15lb overall but stepping through the grades to take the Mallard last month. Has scored eight consecutive up to 1m 6f on Flat turf in 13 months since gelded.
BCEF Stars Over The Sea
Won as a 2yo for Mark Johnston, and as a hurdler for David Pipe; second in a Group race for Henry De Bromhead, and 10-lengths winner of the Cesarewitch Trial over the Newmarket CD last month for Ian Williams.
BCEF Top Tug
Around 50% place strike rate from 33 starts but just five wins in five years, and rated 100-106 for 28 months, solid but standing still. Nicola Currie’s biggest task to date!
BCEX Here And Now
Third in last year’s Melrose. Gelded and showed improvement stepped up in trip this term. Lightly raced, travels strongly but showed best form on a flat track, winning class-2 handicap at York (2m).
BCEX Precious Ramotswe
Three wins in a row on debut or after a break, and comes here after two months off, dropping from three Group-2 efforts, including Lancashire Oaks third. Frankie Dettori up.
Ex-Andre Fabre, beat Marmelo (now 113 rated) as a three-year-old but not progress for Ian Balding until gelded and beaten six lengths in the Ascot Stakes, before four lengths off Stratum at Newbury and won at Ascot in August before taking a break. Now on 95.
Campaigned over hurdles until beat big field on the Flat at Galway Festival in July (2m 1f) when amateur ridden (stablemate Limini second), and raised a stone. Highly regarded.
CX Fun Mac
Place strike rate around 44% as a long-time nearly horse, second in the Ascot Stakes, third in the Prix Du Cadran, second and third in Chester Cups, and fourth in the recent Cesarewitch Trial.
CEX Southern France
Lightly-raced Group performer, second and then third to Kew Gardens successively in Ascot Vase and Doncaster St Leger. Could be a standout. Three-year-old age group dominated off low weights between 1975 and 1990
EF Kloud Gate
Placed 20 times but five wins all in Italy, at least three years ago. Recent revival for new yard, not disgraced in Ascot Stakes before second to Stratum at Newbury and fifth in marathon handicap at Glorious Goodwood.
A winner just once in a light career (1m 2f April 2016) for Sir Michael Stoute and rating static since but placed in stayer’s races for new yard after gelding and going well in Chester Cup when finished lame. Quiet run back last month.
It’s five years since his sole success but four places at Listed and Group level have kept his rating high.
JUMPING ON THE FLAT LOOKS THE NAP
6.15 Chelmsford Fintas showed ability on debut at Wolverhampton despite being sent off at 66/1 and improved for that run with a win here over seven furlongs last time out. He should improve for the step-up distance but along with Daafr and Balladeer has to give weight away which can be notoriously hard at this stage of a two-year-old’s career.
A more interesting proposition is the Godolphin entry Mawahib who was third here last time but it looks best to put a line through that piece of form as she was slowly aways and badly hampered just after the start. The fact that she finished third after all that carnage was encouraging and the extra furlong should suit.
Trading at around 8.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing she makes plenty of appeal with a WIN 10 insurance on the place market.
6.45 Chelmsford The defection of Big Country and Spark Plug leave just four runners but it remains competitive.
It might pay to again stick with the boys in blue who have Big Challenge reappearing here after a break.
He made a winning debut at Nottingham before finishing second to Monarchs Glen at Kempton and that form reads really well given the winner has gone on to win at both Group 3 and Listed level.
I’m not overly concerned about the absence and his chance is much preferred to his rather exposed rivals including Convey who needs to bounce back from a disappointing last of five effort at Windsor last time out.
8.45 Chelmsford Hattaab has improved with each start but even though he has jumping experience may still find this trip too long on the flat and he remains a maiden under both codes.
Preference is for Jumping Cats who was staying on to great effect over 1m 5f here last time out and should relish the extra trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except place bet WIN 10)
BET 2.8pts win and 6.6pts place (WIN 10) MAWAHIB (6.15 Chelmsford)
BET 8.6pts win BIG CHALLENGE (6.45 Chelmsford)
BET 9.7pts win (nap) JUMPING CATS (8.45 Chelmsford)
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