WOW! 190 POINTS PROFIT FROM FRODON AND HOT FROST: One of the great moments at any Cheltenham! An all-the-way win from a perfect ride by the fearless Bryony Frost on Frodon (WON 9-2), a Daqman Fortune Cookie and win-100 ante-post bet at 11.5 offers on BETDAQ, so worth 190 points profit.
WOW! 40-POINT HIT WITH A FORTUNE-COOKIE SUPERNAP: Daqman forecast in this very spot yesterday that it would be a big day for the Fortune Cookies. He put his money where his mouth is and, as well as the 20-point Cookie bet, he put an extra 20-point supernap on Paisley Park (WON 11-8). So the horse won as a 40-point bet.
11 WINNING BETS IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF CHELTENHAM: Win after win this week – 11 at Cheltenham – has seen him notch up a 55- points profit lead over Pricewise, with their returns now 42-19 to Daqman.
WIN Frodon (WON 9-2, ante-post 11.5 BETDAQ)
WIN Paisley Park (WON 11-8, Fortune Cookie and supernap)
WIN Not Many Left (3rd 16-1, from 19.5 BETDAQ)
WIN City Island (WON 8-1, from 10.5 BETDAQ)
WIN Topofthegame (WON 4-1)
WIN Ballyandy (3rd 14-1, w/p from 24.0 BETDAQ)
WIN Sceau Royal (3rd 16-1, Special Place bet)
WIN Tiger Roll, nap (WON 5-4)
WIN Vintage Clouds (2nd 16-1, w/p from BETDAQ 26.0)
WIN A Plus Tard (WON 5-1, from BETDAQ 8.5)
WIN Le Breuil (WON 14-1, w/p from BETDAQ 18.5)
➡️ WINNER-A-DAY DAQMAN: 34 in 16 consecutive days
➡️ BEST BETS: Seven winning naps out of nine
➡️ BULL’S-EYE NAPS: Three from three (no losers)
➡️ FORTUNE COOKIES: 544.26 points profit (15 wins)
➡️ ANTE-POST (Cheltenham): Profit 82.75 points
➡️ DAQMAN 42, PRICEWISE 19 (Daqman +44 points, Pricewise – 11)
SIR EREC A SECOND 40-POINTER
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle)
FORTUNE COOKIE: Sir Erec
ANTE-POST: win-100 (5.8 x 18.0 on BETDAQ) Adjali
RATINGS: Sir Erec, Pic d’Orhy, Quel Destin
TRAINERS: G Elliott (2), N Henderson (2). JOCKEYS: ???
STATS: 11/12 winners had at least two runs and at least one win
FORM: Sir Erec is another Fortune Cookies ‘find’; by this column, and the imposing dual winner at Leopardstown is the nap of the day.
Tiger Tap Tap got within a neck of him at the Leopardstown trials meeting before flopping at the Dublin Festival.
Similarly, Adjali went down at Cheltenham in January, but he and Quel Destin were also separated only a neck in their one-two at Chepstow over Christmas.
BETDAQ VALUE: I took Adjali at 18.0 ante-post but you could get 24.0 the win and 5.2 the place this morning as place cover for my win-100 bet. As Fortune Cookie and supernap, Sir Erec is my second 40-pointer.
27.0 DREAM OUT OF THIS WORLD
2.10 Cheltenham (County Hurdle)
TRAINERS: W Mullins (4), P Nicholls (2), D Skelton (2). JOCKEYS: P Towned (2), R Walsh (2).
STATS: 8/10 winners were aged five or six. No favourites have won in the decade, when there were winners at 33-1, 25-1 and 20-1 (four times).
FORM: Dan Skelton has made this race his own recently but Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Ch’tibello looks more an Aintree horse to me (good second there on the last day). And Mohaayed is all of a heap with Lisp and Western Ryder on their 1-2-3 at Ascot in December.
Like ‘Chitty’, Capitaine has had a wind op and will go well if there is no more rain. Leoncavallo has been trained for the race but the stable has been out of form.
Horses from the high end of the weights have been doing well and We Have A Dream could be too classy for these.
Last year’s Triumph runner-up Mr Adjudicator had one run back in the autumn, and can now say that he was second to the Champion Hurdler!
BETDAQ VALUE: Mr Adjudicator (14.5), Capitaine (16.0) and We Have A Dream (27.0) are worth a flutter.
SALUTE ELLIOTT, THE COMMANDER
2.50 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle)
RATINGS: Birchdale, Derrinross, Dinons
TRAINERS: J J O’Neill (2)
STATS: Favourites have been ousted in the last five seasons, with winners at 33-1 (twice), 16-1, 14-1 and 11-1.
Horses aged six and seven have won 11/14. Freshness or time to mature seems key: 10/12 had been absent 47 days or more; nine had run at Cheltenham before; 11 had winning form at 3m
FORM/BETDAQ VALUE: Sequence winner Dinons (15.5) was put away after his only autumn defeat, when hampered out of a race at Navan, and Gordon Elliott stablemate Commander Of Fleet (9.2) won a war of attrition – which is what they’ll get today – with Rhinestone (13.5) at Leopardstown last month. Birchdale obviously comes into it but you normally need a horse with more experience.
TOO MANY CHANCERS, EH BOY!
3.30 Cheltenham (Gold Cup)
FORTUNE COOKIES: Anibale Fly, Clan des Obeaux, Elegant Escape, Invitation Only, Native River.
BREEDING: Presenting Percy, Kemboy, Bellshill
RATINGS: Clan Des Obeaux, Bristol Du Mai, Native River
TRAINERS: N Henderson (2).
STATS: Nine out of 10 winners come from the first three in the market.
FORM: The Gold Cup looks cluttered with chancers this year, and that’s going to ruin our Fortune Cookies profits unless one of our outsiders wins.
Anibale Fly was third last year but the second and fourth, Might Bite and Road To Respect, have not performed at the very top since, and that casts a shadow over Native River, as does his defeat in the King George.
That was won by the then six-year-old Clan des Obeaux from four years his senior, Thistlecrack, in a sudden step up in form.
We can assume that Clan Des Obeaux and Kemboy are improving – still only seven – and that applies to Elegant Escape, the more so since he ran Frodon close on this New course here in February.
Presenting Percy has been prepped over hurdles. His RSA victory doesn’t look all that hot in hindsight but he is bred to win this, where Clan Des Obeaux is not.
BETDAQ VALUE: I’m left without cover for being unexpectedly mob-handed in this, unless this goes like the Champion Hurdle: all the obvious get stuffed and a new bird flies in: Kemboy (12.0)?
At least my critics can have a laugh and say: he couldn’t get the winner in six attempts! In this gold cup, I’d rather be hung for six than five.
LE PREZIEN FOR A GRAND REPEAT
4.50 Cheltenham (Grand Annual Chase)
FORTUNE COOKIE: Le Prezien
BREEDING: Bun Doran, Magic Saint, Not Another Muddle, Mind’s Eye
TRAINERS: P Nicholls (2)
STATS: No winners of a double-figure age (like last year’s second and third, Gino Trail and Top Gamble), and none with more than 11st 5lb, except last year’s winner, Le Prezien, who has been trained for a repeat.
FORM: Stablemate Magic Saint comes out inferior to Le Prezien on a line through Gino Trail. A third Paul Nicholls runner, Brelan d’As, has pleased Bryony Frost as a horse with a good rhythm but has won only small-field races.
Not Another Muddle has been progressive but that now gives him a lot to do in this company. Mind’s Eye is highly regarded and was well backed during the week.
BETDAQ VALUE: Another Wow factor here, if I can get Fortune Cookie Le Prezien home at 13.5 to 20 points!
DALLAS THE GALLOPING COWBOY
5.30 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Hurdle)
TRAINERS: W Mullins (3), G Elliott (2).
FORM: Nothing fancy, just a strong galloper, says Gordon Elliott of the improving Dallas Des Pictons, who is 2-2 this year. I’ll take that.
Early Doors, third in this last year, was buried in Grade-1 hurdles before Christmas. Goes well fresh. Defi Bleu also drops from Graded contests.
Style De Garde was second in the Fred Winter a year ago. Stablemate Pym has raced only as a novice. Coolanly and Pym were one-two in a Grade-2 novice on the old course here in November.
BETDAQ VALUE: Dallas Des Pictons at around 4-1 and Early Doors 6.0 can stem the tide of wannabes, though I worry about Style De Garde (36.0)
1.30 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 20pts win SIR EREC
PLACE BET (to win 20): 5pts win ADJALI
2.10 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.75pts win MR ADJUDICATOR
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3pts win CAPITAINE
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2pts win and place WE HAVE A DREAM
2.50 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 6pts win COMMANDER OF FLEET
BULL’S-EYE BET: 4pts win RHINESTONE
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.5pts win and place DINONS
3.30 Cheltenham (win 50)
BET 4.5pts win KEMBOY
4.10 Cheltenham (win 30 and 2 x 20)
BET 3.5pts win ROAD TO ROME
BET 4.25pts win UCELLO CONTI
BET 3.5pts win STAND UP AND FIGHT
4.50 Cheltenham (see above)
5.30 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 10pts win DALLAS DES PICTONS
BET 6pts win EARLY DOORS
BET 1pt win and place STYLE DE GARDE
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