DAQMAN BIDS FOR NAPS HAT-TRICK WITH 5.8 ABOUT IRISH RAIDER: Daqman moans about midweek racing but his little fish are sweet! He went to the seaside at Yarmouth yesterday and landed back-to-back naps, which gave him four successful best bets out of the last six. Today he goes round the racetracks, looking for the hat-trick and ends up with an Irish raider at Doncaster, with 5.8 offers on BETDAQ this morning.
WON 5-6 SWEET ENOUGH Wednesday nap
WON 5-2 MYBOYMAX Tuesday nap
BITE THE BULLET AND BEWARE THE SHARK IN THE FRIDAY ACTION: Look out tomorrow for the Brighton Bullet, the Churchill Stakes at Tipperary (in which Shark Bay runs), plus evening meetings at Newmarket and Haydock.
JOSEPH O’BRIEN RAIDER THROWN IN
⚠️ HEADS UP: JOSEPH O’BRIEN makes a 10-horse charge on the prizemoney at Leopardstown and Doncaster today; five runners at each, a pair of them only seven minutes apart in evening races. So watch those across-the-card doubles over the Irish Sea!
Riding all five Doncaster runners will be Dylan Brown McMonagle, his 3lb claiming apprentice, who has ridden only three times here before, at Ascot (2) and York (1) but he’s had an excellent year in Ireland with 36 winners, and is regarded as Champion Apprentice elect.
His best chance if the handicapper has it right is Adelisa (7.20), whose rating of 80 – take off the 3lb allowance – looks crazy on her second at Gowran in the Spring behind a Johnny Murtagh filly now rated 110 with the third home now off 98.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.8 Adelisa
⚠️ HEADS UP: WILLIAM HAGGAS The Yorkshire-born trainer gets rave notices from the fawning Press when he wins at York but, in fact, he has better strike rates on the country tracks in his home county.
Beverley 26%, Redcar 25%, Ripon 26%, Thirsk 27% and Catterick 31% .. that’s hugely consistent and reliable across the Yorkshire Pudding Belt, so you have to look closely at his two runners at Redcar this afternoon: Sweet Believer (2.50) and Sea La Rosa (4.20).
WHY KELMSCOTT MUST LEAVE IT LATE
⭕ 2.30 Brighton Challenge Cup Three-year-olds have scored three seasons out of five (3-5) in this and Kelmscott was transformed on the last day.
Was it the Brighton track or was it the first-time tongue-tie; probably also the jockeyship of David Probert.
Kelmscott travelled smoothly and went away from his field but whoever was responsible for making him favourite must have been concerned for their investment when, once clear, he decided he’d done enough.
I might have put the blinkers on today but that could take all the brakes off, so David Menuisier relies on the knowledge gained by Probert to kid Kelmscott into back-to-back Brighton success.
Contingency Fee goes for a five-timer; 2-2 here at Brighton among his quartet at different distances, 1m 2f to 1m 4f. He is up a total of 13lb.
One of three class-6 strikes by Foresee was over the Brighton CD but his form raised to class 4 and 5 is 030200020.
Yet another CD winner (class 5) is Ravens Ark, with Hughie Morrison trying first-time cheekpieces after the gelding’s second defeat as favourite the last day.
BETDAQ value 3.75 Kelmscott
I SAW HER RACE, NOW I’M A BELIEVER
⭕ 2.50 Redcar Sweet Believer (William Haggas) goes for a hat-trick, raised a total of 10lb, but was an easy CD winner in another Straight Mile qualifier eight days ago.
Give It Some Teddy has won five times over this mile and had dropped 10lb since the autumn of 2019 when returning to the winner’s enclosure at Thirsk (class 3) on the first of the month. Can he carry a 4lb penalty four days later?
Stablemate Delgrey Boy has increased his ratings burden by 8lb without winning in the five starts since he scored in class 5 at Thirsk in the Spring.. ALL as favourite, twice odds on. That’s not like handicap player Tim Easterby.
Ulshaw Bridge hasn’t won on turf since 2018. So, all in all, I’m a Believer! But I fancy playing the margins, taking 4.2 Give It Some Teddy this morning, expecting some ease (I’ve asked for 2.8) about Sweet Believer if Teddy is the business.
⭕ 4.20 Redcar Here’s the other Haggas horse, Sea La Rosa, the name a weak link between sire Sea The Stars and dam, Soho Rose, but in the type of race here in which Haggas excels (44% strike rate).
Sea La Rosa has been favourite for three consecutive races running but with just one success, in a class-5 novice at Chepstow.
May still beat the class-5 bridesmaid Forza Orta (form figures 222) and Bashosh, who has won twice but beat nothing well.
BETDAQ value 5.2 Sea La Rosa
WELD PLOTS 3-DAY GROUP-3 DOUBLE
⭕ 5.20 Leopardstown (Ballyroan Stakes) Wembley has dropped out of this, and Tarnawa has not been seen since her hat-trick of Vermeille, Opera and Breeders Cup Turf last backend.
But she started both the 2019 and 2020 seasons in August, on each occasion with a comfortable win at this Group 3 level in the Give Thanks Stakes at Cork, due to be run on Saturday.
Tarnawa swerves Cork, in which her trainer, Dermot Weld, has two other probables, Amma Grace and Frederica Sophia, with Amma Grace left as top-rating in the absence of Tarnawa. Seems a cunning move to bag together 68,000 euros in prizemoney.
The threat to the plan in the Ballyroan today must be the improver Benaud, who put up a fine performance at Naas in the Spring and was unluckily stumped at Royal Ascot, having to race wide – perhaps looking for better ground – when beaten less than four lengths in the Queens Vase by Kemari and Wordsworth, subsequently third in the Irish Derby and runner-up in the Grand Prix de Paris.
2.30 Brighton (win 20)
BET 7pts win KELMSCOTT
4.20 Redcar (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win SEA LA ROSA
7.20 Doncaster (win 20, nap)
BET 4pts win ADELISA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.