DON’T DESERT THE LARK AT DONCASTER: Lark Rise Over Doncaster is how Daqman sees the drama of racing on Town Moor this afternoon, second day of the Ladbrokes St Leger meeting. The Lark is napped to return to form. She was always targeting next season and can get back in the ascendant, says our man.

ONE LEG DOWN AT THE LEGER MEETING: Daqman bombed on Day 1 of the four-day meeting yesterday – worth a headline because it’s so rare – but he did warn throughout his column of the dangers of a change of ground. Can he find a soft touch or two today?


1.45 Doncaster ‘System doing well: send more money.’ It’s the old saw to suggest that systems never work. But some punters do well, systematically following fairly simplistic rules. I know a man who does. With two-year-olds.

He has two lists for juveniles races: one for the leading two-year-old trainers, and one for the sires of the race he’s analyzing, how they have fared with their two-year-old runners. Could do worse, so..

The year’s current leading two-year-old trainers are R Hannon (Suite, Chutney, Arranger) 104, M Johnston (Atlantic Affair) 33, M Channon (State Anthem) 23, W Haggas (Lady In Blue) 15, C Hills (Gown) 14, C Brittain (Aqlaam Vision) 9. The rest nowhere.

Leading contenders today by sire’s success: State Anthem (290 wins), Suite (281), Chutney (194), Les Gar Can (79), Atlantic Affair and Queenie’s Home (77), Inyodreams (49), Gown (44), Nakuit (15)

Finally, he lists the runners on the day by how many winners have finished behind them when they won their race(s): Gown 4, Atlantic Affair 2, Chutney 2, Suite 2, Les Gar Can 1.

For my part, I rely more on breeding: Chutney, Gown, Inyordreams, Suite, Queenie’s Home and Lady in Blue. And, of course, my job is value.

It’s another difficult Doncaster race, depending on which horses can perform on the ground. That may be the important list today, and Gown looks good at 11.0 with her sire hitting up to 27% winners when his progeny race with cut in the ground, the softer the better. It suggests that Gown’s 7f Sandown win on firm was a bonus.

2.10 Doncaster (Sceptre Stakes) Three-year-olds are 9-10 in this, field the majority of the runners today, and have the two older horses out with the washing in the market.

With exposed form, we now have more idea which animals like give in the surface: Maureen, Annecdote and Nargys in betting order, with Annecdote already having beaten Winning Express, and Nargys at Goodwood.

Her earlier win over Nargys and Zurigha at Ascot suggests we an trust the form, and she should again hold Winning Express, despite being worse off at the weights.

Maureen is the other Group-3 winner and she drops from a sequence of efforts in Group 1. There’s a gnat’s nose between her and Winning Express on Spring form, which gives Annecdote an edge, and I like her willingness., something others need to show in this decider of some of the ‘nearly horses’ among the Classic-season fillies.

2.40 Doncaster (£300,000 Two-Year-Old Race) Two or more wins or a decent effort in the pattern. That’s the form criteria, if the stats are any guide.

So I’m striking my blue pencil through Morning Post, Tanseeb, Captain Bob, Tanzeel, Der Blaue Reiter, Finflash, Foxy Clarets, Regiment, Stella Clavisque, and Toubougg Happy and I can’t have Azagal, with Tim Easterby’s poor two-year-olds strike rate this year.

Only one winner has ever carried more than 8st 12lb, and Zaraee is deserted by Paul Hanagan, while Steventon Star and Malachim have to be regarded as third and fourth strings in the Hannon quadruple assault.

Ben Hall and Mawfoor plummet in class. Art Official is by a soft-ground sire and is preferred to the Hughes choice for Hannon, Coulsty.

I think it’s between the three though, if I could restore one from the stats criteria, it would be Tanzeel, because so lightly raced and Paul Hanagan’s pick from four .

Ben Hall and Tanzeel are the ones with the fancy entries this autumn and, after only six runs between them, are most likely to improve. They are both in the low draw, so I’ll punt a high number, Mawfoor, who should think this a picnic after seeing the hindquarters of War Command.

3.15 Doncaster (Park Hill Stakes) The Lark went backwards, down from her Group-1 Oaks third to Talent to flop in a Group 2 at Saint-cloud. But she has always been thought of as a filly for next year.

Others raced at Listed level are stepping up here: Alta Lilea, Coquet, Jathabah, Jehannedarc, and Seal of Approval, the one on the upgrade, having made the transition to the pattern from handicaps.

4.25 Doncaster The 3.50 has no form, and this one gives no respite from big-field sprints, which dominate the day again. The alternative to horses is Thunderball, so I’ll shut up and get on with it.

Thunderball, the horse, must have a big chance here as CD winner twice on the soft but, though I rarely listen to gossip, my man in the long grass, his bins misted with excitement, tells me to have my pound on Fairway To Heaven.

As Betdaq’s orange emerged, a warming beacon, in the gloom of the morning, I saw with dismay that his ‘secret’ was out. The shrewdies were already on, down to 7.8 favourite and falling.

So now it’s a case of find value to beat it. James Fanshawe’s If So has excelled on AW but has yet to step up on turf. If so… But, banking on the high draw, I like Love Island, consistent but claimed off to reduce the penalty for such solid form.

5.00 Doncaster As I see a whole bunch of withdrawals because of rain, life becomes more and more difficult – well, racing is life, isn’t it – but my eye lights on soft-ground-bred Conduct as the getting-out horse for this Day 2 (let’s hope the final two days are easier and have more quality at a distance).

DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 2pts win and place GOWN (1.40 Doncaster)
BET 3.5pts win ANNECDOTE (2.10 Doncaster)
BET 2.7pts win TANZEEL, 2.3pts win BEN HALL and 1.4pts win MAWFOOR (2.40 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win (nap) THE LARK and 4.5pts win (stakes saver) SEAL OF APPROVAL (3.10 Doncaster)
BET 2.8pts win FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN, 2.5pts win IF SO and 2pts win LOVE ISLAND (4.25 Doncaster)
BET 4pts win CONDUCT (5.00 Doncaster)


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