6-1 TWICE AS THE WINNERS ROLL IN: In-form Daqman had the layers in a shambles when he landed four more winners yesterday, including two at 6-1, in a spree which extended more than four hours through the afternoon and into evening BETDAQ racing at Kempton Park:
WON 6-1 Chinese Jade
WON 6-1 Sloane Avenue
WON 15-8 Winter Queen (nap)
WON 7-4 Little Shambles
SIX HIT NETS 80 POINTS IN TWO DAYS: His winners spree started on Tuesday with around 29 points profit. Yesterday’s 51 points put him almost spot on an 80-point haul in the two days, which started with..
WON 6-4 Arctic Feeling
WON 6-4 Ever So Much
LOOK OUT FOR BANKER AND LAYS: Daqman, whose nap now shows a profit of 71 points since the opening day of York, has promised to complete a hat-trick of bankers and open a new lays account at the weekend.
It’s always a dilemma for punters and pundits. How do you follow a good day?
But the answer is quite simple – you carry on doing what you are doing based on a solid foundation.
The winners flowed better than a vintage claret yesterday but the DAQMAN formula has always been based on the long term, as the archive records (in the Library here) play testament to.
Indeed, the most dangerous thing to do in punting, but one of the hardest to resist, is to change your strategy after a good or bad day. How many punters see the following day as a chance to play up, or chase their winnings/losses but the real strength is seeing two days as a microcosm of a punting season.
Same as all sports (and yes I do consider punting a sport !!) – a change of strategy based on very recent form can prove disastrous for players and teams. The tennis player who breaks their opponents serve and then fails to hold their own is a prime example. Then you have an attacking football team who go 2-0 up inside 10 minutes and suddenly switch to being defensive and it all goes wrong.
Of course we are right to celebrate winners on a daily basis, who doesn’t, we are also right to feel down in the dumps after a losing day – but it happens and always will happen – otherwise the sport of punting simply isn’t for you.
I mentioned getting the ‘foundations’ right. The DAQMAN foundation has always been about betting when ‘the price is right’.
How many times do you hear a punter say: “I fancy that”. Zillions. The reality is that although they do ‘fancy it’, they haven’t quantified ‘fancy’ mathematically. Unless they are betting on a two-headed coin – they don’t fancy it 100%. So what do they think it’s chance of winning is ? 50%, 60%, 70%, 85.76% ???
They haven’t gone the extra yardage to work that out so most of the time are betting blind with the odds often against them.
How many times do you hear a punter say: “I fancy that, but I’m not backing it”. Extremely few, but when you come across such a person cling on to them – because they are on the right track.
The beauty with BETDAQ is often you do get the odds you are are after thanks to the tight competitive markets often only a shade over 100%. But sometimes you also need to step away – if the odds are wrong or the market (in your view) has simply over-reacted. You might spot the only soft ground specialist in a field of eight – but if the world and his wife already has the edge has gone.
Racing is really suffering from small fields at the moment. At Ffos Las and Fontwell this afternoon there are 14 races but the same number of runners as the 14 race BAGS card from Crayford !!
I don’t have a problem with small fields per se, beyond the fact it can bring to fore the pace angle and often races become tactical. Generally speaking, and rather obviously, the bigger the field the less likely this is to occur.
One of the more competitive races from Ffos Las is the 4.05 – a class 4 handicap run over a mile on expected good to soft ground.
The eye is immediately drawn to Taqneen from the Ed Dunlop stable. He was beginning to look costly to follow – with a string of three seconds – but the combined factor of soft ground and blinkers on for the first time brought about an easy success at Thirsk last time out. He starts life in handicap company off a mark of 79 which doesn’t look too onerous and is preferred to Merry Me who won on the all-weather last time out at Lingfield.
I did enjoy the tweet last week which said Tony McCoy had basically broken the record for breaking records and it’s not far from the truth. Certainly there was no let up last night when the champ added a further four winners to this seasons tally at Worcester.
His best chance at Fontwell this afternoon looks to lie with Crannaghmore Boy in the 4.50. He won over a similar trip at Newton Abbot last time out and the Jim Best trained top weight should be able to defy top weight and a penalty of 7lb. At around evens on BETDAQ he looks the bet of the day.
Jumps fans also have Stratford to look forward to this afternoon. It’s rare I back a horse that was pulled up last time out unless there are exceptional circumstances and those apply with Mile House who was pulled up at Ffos Las last time when the saddle slipped. He was well backed on that occasion having previously impressed when winning a bumper at Southwell. Rockmount River is possibly the only danger but I am far from convinced that this one will be suited by the step up in trip.
Scottish Strand would be an appropriately named Hamilton winner but I am not sure I want to be backing him on what looks quite a tough mark for a handicap debut in the 6.20. The more experienced Coincidently is preferred to the favourite.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked to win 20pts except nap)
BET 11.9 pts win MILE HOUSE (2.20 Stratford)
BET 4.7pts win TAQNEEN (4.05 Ffos Las)
BET 12pts win (nap) CRANNAGHMORE BOY (4.50 Fontwell)
BET 5pts win COINCIDENTALLY (6.20 Hamilton)
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