HIDDEN HORSES AT BETDAQ OFFERS COULD EARN A SILVER BUCK: Daqman goes hunting for ‘hidden horses’ today in the feature race at Wincanton, the Silver Buck Chase, and finds 11.5 and 15.5 offers in BETDAQ exchanges are appealing. He hopes to pay for the bets with a supernap in the mud at Leicester, which has had the form boosted by a placed horse in the Greatwood.
‘INCLUDE ME OUT’ OF TIZZARD BETS
Something’s wrong down on the farm. Venn Farm, Milborne Port, to be precise. The home of the biggest surge in training winners this century, the ITV Racing presenter called it before Saturday’s Ladbrokes Trophy.
The master of Milborne Port, Colin Tizzard, admitted before the race that some of his horses had been running ‘inexplicably badly.’
But he strongly fancied Copperhead to come good for the yard. And Mister Malarky was working well and couldn’t be left out of calculations.
Two days earlier my ABC guide to the race had them on top, jointly, as the two horses in the race to tick all the boxes.
Because the Tizzards – Colin and Joe – seemed to have turned the corner, I didn’t put in any little ‘x’ warning for stable out of form. Everything seemed to be going for them, and Copperhead was overnight favourite.
But the horses themselves weren’t going. Or at least not far, they weren’t! Copperhead pulled up after the eighth; Mister Malarky unseated at the ninth. Both had drifted ominously before the ‘off,’ out to 12-1 and 16-1 respectively.
In the space of two Newbury fences, the Venn Farm revival was over. They were part of a sequence of eight Tizzard runners, of which three in a row failed to finish and the five others were beaten a total of 183 lengths!
The yard is officially 2-33 in the fortnight (that’s a 6% strike rate), without a winner in 10 days from 17 starters.
Where does that leave their four runners at Wincanton this afternoon? I would say out in the cold, wouldn’t you!
Friday’s seven probables include the much-hyped The Big Breakaway, already priced up by some bookmakers at 5-1 ON for his novice chase at Exeter.
‘Breakaway’ looked so good, seemingly making the stable breakthrough,at Cheltenham 19 days ago, but not only does he now face the current curse of the Tizzards but also the form of that win has taken a panning.
The second horse home, Doc Penfro, was well fancied at Haydock yesterday but trailed in last of four, nearly 30 lengths behind the winner.
The third at Cheltenham, The Butcher Said, was only sixth of 10 in Saturday’s Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle behind the 66-1 shot, Yorkhill.
As for having a bet on the Tizzard runners at Wincanton, I will follow the famous advice of Hollywood film producer Sam Goldwyn when he said: ‘Include me out!’
MAYBE THE MOMENT HAS ARRIVED
⭕ 2.15 Wincanton (Silver Buck Chase) Copperhead won this last year for the Tizzards, who today run top-weight Darlac (strike rate 1-16) and Carrick Roads (winner the last day).
Tom Scudamore deserts Carrick Roads for What A Moment, who has crashed 18lb in the handicap, has his ground and races over his winning trip.
His two chase victories were both at this time of year but both at Cheltenham, and has what a punter friend of mine calls ‘binary form’ (010101): he wins or he loses. This could be the Moment!
Get On The Yager is also down the handicap, a stone lower than a couple of years back. He won the 2017 Rowland Meyrick and was third on deep ground in the Midlands Grand National of 2019. Rain would help.
Broadclyst is a maiden after 11 starts Forgot To Ask is 1-10 over fences, not binary but bridesmaid, currently 332 without getting his head in front.
Kim Bailey is still going well and He’s No Trouble could bounce back on the better ground after wind ops.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE offers this morning about my two ‘hidden horses’ included 11.5 What A Moment and 15.5 Get On The Yager.
TWISTON-DAVIES DOUBLE KING
⭕ 1.07 Leicester Is Mr Grey Sky the flip side of an ELO record? Kim Bailey’s poor returns at Leicester and the decision to drop this unruly grey back to 2m persuades me to One True King, who was paying seven for 10 this morning on BETDAQ as first leg of a double for Sam Twiston-Davies.
One True King ran second to Tegerek before that one finished third in the Greatwood, form which is surely more than 6lb better than Mr Grey Sky as they stand in the ratings here.
⭕ 3.37 Leicester Staying with Sam Twiston-Davies, he has a 50% strike rate for Dr Richard Newland, who drops Fleur Du Seuil down to the minimum.
Related to Defi Du Seuil on the dam’s side, has shown up at this trip when racing over further, and looks well in. BETDAQ 9.1 taken.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.07 Leicester (supernap)
BET 20pts win ONE TRUE KING
2.15 Wincanton (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 4.75 pts win WHAT A MOMENT
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.5pts win GET ON THE YAGER
3.37 Leicester (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win FLEUR DU SEUIL
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