STALLS EDGE IN THE BREEDERS CUP? Daqman research reveals that stalls position had a big effect on the results when the Breeders Cup was last run at Churchill Downs (for two seasons, 2010 and 2011), so he has checked out this potential edge in Saturday’s trio of top turf races round the oval track.
DAQMAN’S NECK ON THE LINE AT 14-1: After seven winning days, Daqman’s luck deserted him yesterday when Starjac (2nd 14-1) was beaten a neck and The Right Man (2nd 9-2) a short neck. The Right Man was the wrong man at Maisons-Laffitte as Daqman mistakenly swerved his Ayr Bronze Cup star, Snazzy Jazzy (WON 18-1). Today: the Ladbrokes meeting at Lingfield.
DRAW GETS THE CHURCHILL CIGAR
This is what it’s not. Not Keeneland, not Santa Anita, not Del Mar of the last six years. So you need to go back to 2010 and 2011 to check out Churchill Downs for edges in the Breeders Cup.
4.38 Churchill Downs, Saturday (Breeders Cup Turf Sprint) A high draw is very tough to overcome over the 5f CD, and eight years ago the result by starting gate was 1, 2, 4 from 14 runners.
But the following year speed from stalls 8 and 12 managed to corner the big-sprint cash, with the front two in the market running below par from 5 and 9.
That 2011 winner was trained Steve Asmussen, who on Saturday saddles the mare Chanteline (4-7 on turf) from the same stall 8.
6.04 Churchill Downs, Saturday (Breeders Cup Filly And Mare Turf) Three successful raiders from England and Ireland equalise three winners for Chad C Brown in the last six seasons.
And that’s also how it looks at the front of the market this time around, with a Brown trio as home defenders against Charlie Appleby (Wild Illusion), Aidan O’Brien (Magic Wand) and Dermot Weld (Eziyra).
But (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there!) though seven winners in the decade were single-figure odds, the two years at Churchill Downs produced shockers at 20-1 and 33-1.
When the pace is muddling around this tight oval, track position is crucial and the best horse doesn’t always win.
In 2011, several met with trouble, and speed proved more important than stamina (stall 7 beat stall 5). Interestingly, in 2010, stall 5 beat stall 7, from which Midday took a hefty bump, probably costing her the race.
Could it be that those draw positions avoid much of the damage and will figure again through Gavin Cromwell’s Irish raider, Princess Yaiza (blinkered first time in 5), and Todd Fletcher’s Smart Choice, out of 7)?
7.36 Churchill Downs, Saturday (Breeders Cup Mile Turf) Goldikova won this from gate 10 in 2010 but found the one stall blocking her bid for a fabulous four-timer in the same event the following year.
She would never race again, beaten a nose and a length by outsiders at 50-1 and 12-1 from gates 9 and 13, after a race full of incidents.
Lightning Spear (David Simcock from gate 11) and Gustav Klimt (Aidan O’Brien out of 13) seem well drawn if these results are anything to go by.
One Master (William Haggas, 1) Happily (Aidan O’Brien, 3) and Polydream (Freddie Head, 4) may have trouble from the low stalls.
FOOL TO BET AGAINST THE LAW..
2.00 Lingfield Salateen, a 5.2 BETDAQ offer, not disgraced in a Group 2 on the last day, is down in class, down from Yorkshire.
At the weights, can reverse Chelmsford placings with Charles Molson and outstay Kimberella, whose best form is at a furlong shorter.
2.35 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Fleur De Luys Fillies’ Listed) William Haggas has scored three times (1–011) in this since 2012 and his market leader here, Move Swiftly, has never been out of the frame (131122; two out of three on AW).
James Doyle, who won on her at Goodwood, will know more how to ride her, and be seeking revenge, after two narrow defeats since, in both cases giving weight to the winner.
Lush Life is held by Akvavera, both trying to step up three grades. Several others have shown ability at today’s level without being inspirational, and that is confirmed by the BETDAQ market (9.0 bar one).
3.05 Lingfield (Ladbrokes River Eden Fillies Listed) A 106% value orange allows 4.3 about the BETDAQ market favourite, Law Girl, making an unusual Lingfield raid by Willie Mullins.
It seems a very clever move. Second in a valuable Leopardstown handicap at today’s trip to Grade-1 hurdles stablemate Limini, before running out of steam in the Newmarket Cesarewitch, this is a perfect opportunity for the five-year-old Lawman mare to grab some black type before going to the Sales.
DAQMAN’S LINGFIELD BETS
2.00 BET (win 20) 4.75pts win SALATEEN
2.35 BET (win 10) 8pts win MOVE SWIFTLY
3.05 BET (win 20) 6.5pts win (nap) LAW GIRL
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
