THURSDAY WEEK: Daqman continues his race by race stats analysis looking at the third day of the Festival – a week today. His guide covers ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
THREE FOR THURSDAY: Daqman has three bets on Thursday at Carlisle, Southwell and a nap at Newcastle.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race at next week’s Cheltenham Festival.
Today’s your Thursday guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
ANTE-POST: See 5.30 race
LAYS LOGIC: Races 4, 6 and 7 have potential to lay favourites.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 17 (Turner Novices’ Chase) Eight of the last 11 winners were 6-4 to 4-1 at SP. Ages: 6 and 7 are 10 out of 11.
Irish stables have won seven out of the 10: Willie Mullins (4). Ratings: 154, 152, 155, 144, 151, 157, 151.
You need a previous festival runner over hurdles (11/11) who is a distance winner plus (11/11) and, for preference, has won a Graded chase or hurdle (9/11).
* Not a lays race
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 17 (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Two favourites have won in 10 years; six double-figure SPs. Winner six to 10 runs over hurdles (10/12).
Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145, 152. 134. Previous winner between 2m 4f and 2m 6f (9/12).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites prices usually too big to lay.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 17 (Ryanair Chase) Four favourites up in 10 years. Ages 7 and 8 (8-10). Course form essential: 13 out of 15 had previously won at Cheltenham or been placed in Grade 1 there.
Some 13 out of 15 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 12/15 had at least four chase wins, one or more at Graded level. Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169, 170, 162.
* Not a lays race
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 17 (Stayers Hurdle) Three out of 10 to the favourite, but Gavin Cromwell scored at 12-1 last year and Willie Mullins (2) won with two at double-figure SPs. Ages 6 and 7 (7/8).
Some 13 of the last 14 winners all had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 10 of them as winners; 14 out of 15 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168, 146, 160.
LAYS LOGIC: Always a hot favourite for this, with four from six beaten since 2016: WON evens, 3rd 5-6, 5th 9-4, WON 11-8, 7th 4-6, 3rd 9-4.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 17 (Plate) Favourites: 4/10; outsiders 12-1 to 50-1 (5/10). Had previously won from 2m 3f to 2m 5f (12/12).
Trainers: David Pipe (3 in 12 years). Ages: six to nine (10/11); weights 10st 13lb or less (9/11). Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149, 140.
* Not a lays race
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 17 (Mares’ Novices Hurdle) Favourites: 3-6. Ages: four five-year-olds, two six.
Trainers: W Mullins (5). Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138 notional, 141, 136, with 5-6 placed in Grade 1 or 2.
LAYS LOGIC: Willie Mullins won with three straight favourites, but the last three market leaders have crashed: Epatante (2019) 9th 15-8, Minella Melody (2020) 18th 11-4; Royal Kahala (2021) 9th 9-2.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 17 (Kim Muir) One favourite has won in the last nine years, and SPs range from 3-1 to 40-1.
Ages: 7 and 8 (8-9). Weight: 11st 4lb to 11st 9lb (6/7). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143, 141, 142. Ran at the festival before (9/12).
ANTE-POST: Earlier in the week we took 17.0 Cat Tiger
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 4-1 UR (2016); 5-1 UR (2017), 4-1 2nd (2018), 3-1 8th (2019), 5-1 jt favs 7th and 11th (2020) but won at 3-1 last year.
STORY OF THE RACE
⭕ 1.35 Carlisle No surprise to see Barrowdale trading as the hot favourite on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE after his 39 length romp at Uttoxeter last time out but I suspect the form isn’t worth much and he is probably better judged on his previous (more modest) starts. If you go down that road then you can take the view that be might prove vulnerable under a penalty.
Gavin Cromwell sends over Silvertown who is the better fancied of his two raiders at the Cumbrian circuit today. His chance has to be respected after his win in handicap company at Navan last time out but previously he failed to cope with the longer trip when pulled up at Punchestown – so the distance again has to be a concern today.
I like the look of Lucinda Russell’s Your Own Story who is a dual Point winner who made a highly encouraging start over hurdles when a close up third to Charm Offensive last month. That was over 2m 4f in heavy ground, so I think the combination of the easier ground and longer trip should help today.
ORDER FOR ROBERT WALPOLE
⭕ 1.45 Southwell Robert Walpole is on a recovery mission having let down 8/13 backers at Wolverhampton last time out but that was only his fourth career start and it came after an absence of 220 days.
In the circumstances it might be best not to judge it too harshly. The jockey reported he ran too freely when runner-up to Across The Nile who has run well again since. Robert Walpole was entitled to be a little bit rusty after his lay off but there cannot be any excuses today and he is preferred to last week’s course and distance winner Love Your Work who now races under the statutory penalty.
NAP TO FLY HOME
⭕ 7.00 Newcastle Fly To Glory is taken to follow up on his debut course and distance win and continue the good recent form of trainer Archie Watson. He won nicely last month beating a horse with previous good experience and the pair finished nicely clear of the third.
It takes a good one to defy a penalty in novice company but I think he can be up to it particularly as we already have a tick in the course and distance box.
Main market rival Em Jay Kay has a little more experience having finished third at Lingfield and runner-up at Chelmsford. The step up in trip should help this one.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 3.5pts win YOUR OWN STORY (1.35 Carlisle)
BET 3.9pts win ROBERT WALPOLE (1.45 Southwell)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) FLY TO GLORY (7.00 Newcastle)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.