DAQMAN ON FIRE: DAQMAN warmed up for Newmarket’s July Meeting with two winners out of three yesterday and a profit of 35 points. His nap Firelight WON 5/4 and Catterick selection Artarmon WON 6/4. He is now 16.5 points up on the week.
BETDAQ LEADS FOR BIG VALUE ON THE PICNIC TRACK: They’re off today at Newmarket (July Course) for England’s picnic race-meeting, packed with speed events, culminating in Saturday’s July Cup. Daqman goes into Day 1 leading Pricewise 45-16 (Daqman +72, Pricewise -69 to a single-unit level stake). It’s a meeting known for big BETDAQ value.
MIRAGE A REALITY
1.50 Newmarket (Bahrain Trophy) John Gosden has won this four times in the last seven years, Aidan O’Brien just the once, with no winner since 2008 bigger than 9-2 at SP.
O’Brien’s representative here, Giuseppe Garibaldi, was readily brushed aside in the Group 2 Curragh Cup last time out and whilst O’Brien’s current strike rate of 16/70 would delight most trainers, by his own exceptional standards he is under-performing.
Giuseppe Garibaldi certainly has the class to win a Group 3 like this but he has had a busy campaign and might just be vulnerable against the lightly raced improvers.
These include Loxley who ran on well here at Newmarket when winning over 1m 2f last time out and northern raider Wells Farhh Go who wasn’t disgraced when sixth in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot but might just prefer give in the ground.
It may pay though to side with the locally trained First Eleven, one of my Fortune Cookies. John Gosden’s runner should relish the step-up in trip after a fast finishing third in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot and can continue the trainers superb record in the race.
2.25 Newmarket (July Stakes) Oisin Murphy is surely a champion jockey elect and he warmed up for Newmarket by knocking in five winners yesterday. I like his chance here onboard another John Gosden trained runner Legends Of War who was mightily impressive on debut at Yarmouth.
Martyn Meade’s Advertise ran second to the impressive Calyx (John Gosden) in the Coventry, with Koncheck (5th) and Charming Kid (8th) reappearing after their Norfolk Stakes efforts.
3.00 Newmarket High numbers in the draw (10, 11, 14, 15 twice, 16 and 19) have won this seven times in nine years, dashing the hopes of some of the favourites and producing winners at 10-1, 11-1, 12-1 and 33-1 (twice).
Seven times in the decade, the winning weight has been 8st 12lb or lower. The stats favour the Pricewise pair Buridan and Jawwaal but there are a couple of other interesting ’qualifiers’.
Tribal Quest keeps on improving and arrives here looking for a hat-trick and looks set to run a big race from stall 18.
I don’t want to rule out Embour (drawn 11) either. He’s up another 4lb but could still be on the upgrade and is now a winner of three of his five starts.
3.35 Newmarket (Princess Of Wales’s Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute has won this three years out of four (2009 to 2012) in the race which usually goes to four-year-olds. Only one three-year-old has been able to take it since 1998.
That points firmly towards Mirage Dancer who had no luck in running in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot but still finished fifth and can turn around the form with Muntahaa who was third.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 20 points, except place bets staked to win 10 points)
BET 8.1pts win FIRST ELEVEN
BET 9.0pts win LEGENDS OF WAR
BET 2.6pts win and 5.8pts place (WIN 10) TRIBAL QUEST
BET 1.25pts win and 3.3pts place (WIN 10) EMBOUR
BET 9.3pts win (nap) MIRAGE DANCER
First Eleven (1.50 Newmarket)
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