TWO RACES OUT OF TWO FOR DAQMAN INCLUDING THE NAP: Daqman made 19 points profit on the day yesterday, winning two races out of two, with a winning nap and a place bet on a BETDAQ 11.0 shot.
WON 15-8 HOLBACHE (nap)
WON (place 3rd 11-2) OLD METHA BRIDGE
SUPERNAP FOR THE OPENING DAY AT THE JULY MEETING: Today’s nap is a supernap and a Fortune Cookie which doubles the stake to 20 points. It’s the first day of the July Meeting at Newmarket, with bull’s-eye bets at 24.0 and 11.5. Current standings:
DAQMAN 39, PRICEWISE 18
(Daqman + 225.14, Pricewise – 341.50)
SUPERNAPS 8-10 (80%)
LAYS LOGIC 9-13 (70%)
FORTUNE COOKIES 4-8 (50%)
DANTE THE JULY STAKES FORM HORSE
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (July Stakes) Featured in my Forget The Ascot Placed Horses article was the Windsor Castle Stakes, from which last year’s second and third managed only one subsequent win from 17 starts from that day to this!
Windsor Castle runner-up at the royal meeting last month, Dig Two, is tipped by Pricewise for this race today. Unless his lemmings come for him big time, he won’t be the price of a decent lay.
But he takes a chunky percentage out of the market if you are happy to oppose him. The evidence is that, as last year, the race was stuffed with chickens!
Three from the pack behind the winner, Chipotle, have already let the race down badly by being beaten in lower – one of them much lower – grades.
Kaboo (6th at Ascot) was beaten five lengths at 15-8 favourite in a subsequent race, dropped to a Listed: Albion Square (Ascot 9th) was 11th of 14 at the Curragh on the last day; and Home City (10th) has been runner-up since in a class 4.
This is a Group 2 and Dig Two’s own winning form is only a class-3 maiden and a class-5 novice, and all the evidence suggests that he is well outclassed. Unless he becomes a lay (3.0 or less), then I must look for what can beat him.
Well, there’s another Ascot placed! Eldrickjones second in the Coventry Stakes to Berkshire Shadow (Ebro Jones fifth, The Organiser 12th)) looks much stronger.
But beware, the Coventry last year produced only one winner from nine runners up to the date of the Forget The Ascot Placed Horses article.
My verdict is for Project Dante. Despite dwelling at the start, he was beaten only a head and a nose in the Norfolk Stakes by a very smart winner, Perfect Power, and the runner-up, Go Bears Go, has already won since in the Group 2 Railway Stakes at The Curragh.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE 5.0 Project Dante
24.0 EQUALITY WILL GIVE YOU A RUN
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket The results by stall in the decade (14, 3, 15, 15, 16, 3, 19, 8, 20, 12) suggest that we’re going to get a split and that extremes of the draw are best, though last year’s winner headed a centre group and there could be a strong pace to today’s race from Equality (coming out of 8).
Add some speed from Royal Scimitar (2) and Blind Beggar (9), and you get a picture of middle to low. Cairn Gorm (14) seems to be alone in applying early pace on the other side.
A change in the going would make a huge difference: Equality floundered in the mud at Ascot but, if it stayed on the firm side, could still be in there fighting at the finish.
Jumby (10) won on the other course at Newmarket but is high in the handicap now; only two winners in the decade have carried more than 8st 12lb.
The handicapper has equalised Jumby and Jadwal (3) based on their one-two at York in May.
Boomshalla (7) is another from an Ascot race with a very poor future for placed horses (1 win from 15 in last year’s analysis).
I shall take the Charles Hills stable to win the race, with two good chances at the right weight and at value prices in Jadwal and Equality.
BETDAQ value 11.5 Jadwal and 24.0 Equality
GROUNDS FOR BANKING ON AL AASY
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Princess Of Wales’s Tattersalls Stakes) The Fortune Cookie Al Aasy looks supernap material in this company, in which – off 120 – he receives 3lb from 116 rated Sir Ron Priestley.
As so often when the date of a big meeting arrives, the ground is one thing (good to firm) with prospects of being another (showers every day from today but just how much is another question?)
Al Aasy’s three from four Group3 wins have been when the going was on the easy side of good. Was just run out of the Coronation Cup (Group 1) by Pyledriver the last day.
Highest Ground won a conditions race at Leicester in June. Found wanting in Group races either side of that and may want better ground. Form without ‘soft’ in the going return: 111.
Sir Ron Priestley, beaten on the soft at Royal Ascot , is even more ground dependent.
Form on good and firm, including defeat of Pyledriver in May: 111112113 Bangkok and Star Safari will struggle to make an impact in this company.
2.25 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 5pts win PROJECT DANTE
3.00 Newmarket (win 50 bull’s-eye bets, win 10 place)
BET 5pts win JADWAL
BET 2.2pts win and 2.8pts place EQUALITY
FORTUNE COOKIE and SUPERNAP
BET 20pts win AL AASY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.