DERBY WINNERS FROM BIG-RACE TRENDS: Derby winners are produced by recognised trials but which have been most productive this century? Which among Saturday’s runners get a boost from results of Daqman’s 12 tests for three-year-colts?
TOMORROW: The Oaks and Coronation Cup on Day 1 at Epsom.
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Saturday (Cazoo Derby in memory of Lester Piggott). Key trials, their history and this year’s results.
BALLYSAX STAKES: Galileo (winner) won the 2001 Derby; High Chaparral (winner) won the 2002 Derby; Harzand (winner) won the 2016 Derby; this year Piz Badile (winner).
BLUE RIBAND TRIAL: No winner of this has won the Derby since Blue Peter (1939); this year Nahanni (winner), Grand Alliance (second).
CHESTER VASE: Ruler Of The World (winner) won 2013 Derby; Wings Of Eagles (second) won 2017 Derby; this year Changingoftheguard (winner).
CRAVEN STAKES: Masar (winner) won the 2018 Derby; this year Hoo Ya Mal (third), Star of India (fifth).
DANTE STAKES: North Light (winner) won the 2004 Derby; Motivator (winner) won the 2005 Derby; Authorized (winner) won the 2007 Derby; Workforce (second) won 2010 Derby; Golden Horn (winner) won the 2015 Derby; this year Desert Crown (winner), Royal Patronage (second).
DEE STAKES: Kris Kin (winner) won the 2003 Derby; this year Star of India (winner), Sonny Liston (third).
FEILDEN STAKES: Golden Horn (winner) won the 2015 Derby; this year Masekela (second), Sonny Liston (fourth).
LEOPARDSTOWN DERBY TRIAL: Sinndar (winner) won the 2000 Derby; Galileo (winner) won the 2001 Derby; High Chapparal (winner) won the 2002 Derby; this year Stone Age (winner), Glory Daze (second).
LINGFIELD DERBY TRIAL: Anthony Van Dyck (winner) won 2019 Derby; Adayar (second) won 2021 Derby; this year Walk The Stars (second).
NEWMARKET STAKES: No winner of this has won the Derby since Slip Anchor (1985); this year Nations Pride (winner), Hoo Ya Mal (second).
SANDOWN CLASSIC TRIAL: In vogue four years out of eight from the 1979 winner (Troy) to 1980 (Henbit), 1982 (Shergar) and (1986 (Shahrastani); this year Westover (winner).
2,000 GUINEAS: Sir Percy (second) won the 2006 Derby; New Approach (second) won the 2008 Derby); Sea The Stars (winner) won 2009 Derby; Camelot (winner) won the 2012 Derby; Australia (third) won the 2014 Derby; Masar (third) won 2017 Derby; this year Royal Patronage (eighth)
GISBURN LIKES SOFT GROUND
⭕ 3.20 Leicester Something low drawn from near the top of the handicap usually wins this, which helps me focus on Gisburn.
The soft ground is in his favour, as when he won a Newbury nursery in October, giving at least 8lb, yet with second, third and fourth all boosting the form.
Wowzers’ win was at Bath on the firm but Wonderful World, who ran up to Gisburn at Newbury, is 3lb better off for little more than a length and has an additional 5lb claim to help.
The snag this time is that Mick Channon’s yard is horribly out of form (0-22), with just one horse backed in the last fortnight (2nd at even money so they missed strike).
Since that race, the Channon SPs have included 25-1, 33-1, 80-1, 125-1 (twice) as if to say: no chance!
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 5.9 Gisburn
WE KNOW HE CAN STAY WELL
⭕ 4.45 Redcar (Zetland Gold Cup) This race goes to four and five year olds nine times out of 10, and 90% of winners are drawn in single figures; in fact, six out of 10 have come from stalls 1-to-5 in the decade.
Stay Well led inside the final furlong and was just denied in the Rosebery Handicap at Kempton in April at this level but a furlong further than today.
It was James Doyle’s first time on Hughie Morrison’s four-year-old and, though he’d won at 1m 4f, today’s 1m 2f was suggested for a forceful ride.
Baryshnikov kept on well at Pontefract (soft) to beat front-running Pride Of America. He won nearly three lengths but is only a pound worse off today.
The old rivals are drawn side by side in 3 and 4 but Stay Well, from the one stall, should also benefit from Pride Of America’s putting pace to the race.
BETDAQ value 6.6 Stay Well
HOLOCENE: IT’S HAGGAS AGAIN
⭕ 8.40 Chelmsford Holocene is from a good winning family but is penalised for winning her maiden, which means she has to give 6lb to Queen Of The Skies.
Frankie Dettori takes over on the Gosden filly after her late headway, second under a claimer at Nottingham, in which a stablemate of Helocene gave a stone to Queen Of The Skies and won more than five lengths.
It all seems to add up to a hat-trick and winner number 56 for William Haggas, which puts him top of the trainers table with more earnings than Charlie Appleby, despite his great run for Godolphin.
White Moonlight in the care of Saeed Bin Suroor is the Godolphin horse here, giving a stone to everything except First Snowfall, which drifted – just like snow – right out last night.
The trainer likes to win with horses carrying huge weights after a long absence. But I like to back them only when they are 3-1 and more.
BETDAQ value 3.95 Holocene
3.20 Leicester (win 10)
BET 2pts win GISBURN
4.45 Redcar (win 20, nap)
BET 3.5pts win STAY WELL
8.40 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win HOLOCENE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.