SEE HOW THEY WON: YORK A WEEK AWAY: Following yesterday’s stats preview of next Wednesday’s Great Voltigeur and Juddmonte International at York, Daqman moves on to today week for the Lowther Stakes and the Yorkshire Oaks.
GOLD FOUND: Daqman landed his second winning NAP of the week yesterday with Seeking Gold WON 11/10.
Mon: FARIBA (nap) WON 5/6
Wed: SEEKING GOLD (nap) WON 11/10
LAYS LOGIC ON YORK FAVOURITES
⚠️HEADS UP: Stats and facts for three races at York next Thursday, including the Lowther Stakes and the Yorkshire Oaks.
⭕ 1.50 York next Thursday (Lowther Stakes)
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: Only one outright favourite has won in the decade.
SEE HOW THEY WON: Ascot form (10 winners) is far and away the best, so look in the declarations and the markets for: Dramatised, Mawj, Cathy Come Home, Glen Laurel, Kinta, Lady Tilbury, Lezoo, Maria Branwell, Maylandsea, Meditate, Minnetonka, Sweet Harmony.
⭕ 2.25 York next Thursday (Premier Yearling Stakes)
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: Favourites strike at only 30%
Four of the last five winners had four or five previous races. With seven wins between them, Richard Hannon (4) and William Haggas (3) have dominated the race in the last decade.
SEE HOW THEY WON: The only probables out of 66 left in with four or five previous races are Al Dasim (Kevin Philppart de Foy), Apache Outlaw (Joseph O’Brien), Commander Straker (David Loughnane), Dare To Hope (Richard Fahey), Knebworth (Richard Hughes), Metahorse (Michael Bell), Redemption Time (Clive Cox), Remarkable Force (Alice Haynes), Nibras Rainbow (Ismail Mohammed), Reinforce (John Stephen O’Donoghue), Rock Opera (Richard Fahey), Carmela (David Loughnane), Ibiza Love (Hugo Palmer), Radio Goo Goo (David Evans).
⭕ 3.35 York next Thursday (Yorkshire Oaks)
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: There are positives and negatives for the favourite, the five-year-old Alpinista. The good news is that the last five favourites have won; the bad news, seven of the last eight winners have been three-year-olds and the only older filly to score, Enable (2019), had won the race before (2017).. as a three-year-old.
SEE NOW THEY WON: John Gosden, who saddles Emily Upjohn (aged 3), William Haggas with Lilac Road (4) and Aidan O’Brien, who sends out Tuesday (also 3) at the head of his squad, are the only trainers with runners left in the race to have won it before.
RATINGS: 12 out of 12 winners had a rating of 112 or more, so 118 Alpinista, 117 Emily Upjohn, Tuesday; 115 La Petite Coco, 113 Albaflora.
HOLD THE FRONT PAGE
⭕ 4.15 Salisbury (Sovereign Stakes Group 3) Just a quartet of runners for this Group 3 prize but it looks a fairly open market on Betdaq Betting Exchange and the four are split by just 3lb on official ratings.
It’s not the strongest Group 3 though and all four have something to prove at this level to various degrees.
Modern News gets the vote as his form looks solid and Listed / weak Group 3 grade looks his level. The Charlie Appleby trained runner holds Tempus on earlier season Windsor form and is preferred to both Berkshire Shadow and Sinjaari who both arrive on the back of disappointing runs at Goodwood.
Modern News was by no means near his best himself with an odds-on third at Pontefract last time out but a return to a less testing mile might suit and his earlier season form, including wins at Newbury and Doncaster over this trip read well.
TIDE TURNS FOR SEA ON TIME
⭕ 4.45 Salisbury Even fewer runners here but I am looking forward to seeing Sea On Time again.
The William Haggas trained filly has created a really good impression in her three starts to date. After being beaten a head on debut at Chepstow, she has won at Haydock and Doncaster and remains progressive and as a daughter of Sea The Stars has already proved her stamina.
The handicapper has probably erred on the side of caution with her starting mark of 90 but I think she is more open to improvement to the other pair and can continue her winning trajectory.
Dal Mallart has won her last two starts at Haydock and Sandown in some style but is up 6lb in the weights and her trainer Alan King is 0-18 over the last fortnight.
Peripatetic might be the bigger danger after her staying on fourth at Godowood and she should relish the extra two furlongs this afternoon.
BIRDIE WHISPERS ON SUNNINGDALE
⭕ 6.10 Lingfield Sunningdale can continue the excellent recent run of the Cole stable.
The two-year-old has been highly tried so far, finishing down the field in the Chesham at Royal Ascot on his second start but showed he had ability last time out at Newbury with a promising fourth.
This looks a fair enough starting mark and he very much remains the dark horse of the race.
4.15 Salisbury (win 10)
BET 7.1pts win MODERN NEWS
4.45 Salisbury (win 10, nap)
BET 10.0pts win SEA ON TIME
6.10 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.1pts win SUNNINGDALE
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