ANOTHER SOUND BET FROM DAQMAN: Daqman is back in winner-a-day mood with gambled-on Sound And Fury yesterday (WON 10-11 from 2.72 taken on BETDAQ), following his winning Tuesday nap, Navy Drums (WON 4-5).
CHELTENHAM HERE WE COME: DAY-3 Daqman has reached the Stayers Hurdle card in his day-by-day research of the Cheltenham Festival stats one week to the day in advance.
MIXED NEWS: Carlisle and Thurles have been called off on Thursday but the green light has been given for Southwell, Wincanton and Newcastle.
5 OUT OF 7 HOT STAYERS BEATEN
CHELTENHAM LAYS LOGIC: Races 3.30 (stayers hurdle), 4.50 and 5.30 may have favourites at the right price to lay on the third day of next week’s Cheltenham Festival; check the markets against the stats percentages.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16 (Turner Novices’ Chase) Seven of the last eight winners were 6-4 to 4-1 at SP. Ages: 6 and 7 are 11 out of 12.
Ratings: 154, 152, 155, 144, 151, 157, 151, 161. Irish stables have won eight out of 11: Willie Mullins (4).
You need a previous festival runner over hurdles (12/12) who is a distance winner plus (12/12)) and, for preference, has won a Graded chase or hurdle (10/12).
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16 (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Two favourites have won in 11 years; seven double-figure SPs. Winner six to 10 runs over hurdles (11/13) and previous success 2m 4f or 2m 6f (10/13)
Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145, 152. 134, 141.
LAY: Favourites prices usually too big to lay.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16 (Ryanair Chase) Four favourites up out of seven. Ages 7 and 8 (9-11). Course form essential: 14 out of 16 had previously won at Cheltenham or been placed in Grade 1 there.
Some 14 out of 16 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 13/16 had at least four chase wins, one or more at Graded level. Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169, 170, 162, 174.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16 (Stayers Hurdle) Two out of 10 to the favourite. Gavin Cromwell goes for a hat-trick after 12-1 and 4-1 wins for Flooring Porter (2021-22) and Willie Mullins (2) also won with two at double-figure SPs.
Ages: 6 and 7 six in a row.
Some 14 of the last 15 winners all had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 11 of them as winners; 15 out of 16 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168, 146, 160, 164
LAYS LOGIC: There’s always a hot favourite for this, with five from seven beaten since 2016: 5th 11-4, WON evens, 3rd 5-6, 5th 9-4, WON 11-8, 7th 4-6, 3rd 9-4.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16 (Plate) Favourites: 3/5; before that five straight winners from 12-1 to 50-1 (6/11). Had previously won from 2m 3f to 2m 5f (13/13).
Ages: six to nine (10/12); weights 11st 4lb or less (11/11).
Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149, 140, 145.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16 (Mares’ Novices Hurdle) Favourites: 3-7. Ages: four 5-year-olds, three 6. Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138 notional, 141, 136, 135 with 6-7 placed in Grade 1 or 2. Trainers: W Mullins (5).
LAYS LOGIC: Willie Mullins won with three straight favourites, but the last four market leaders have crashed: Epatante (2019) 9th 15-8, Minella Melody (2020) 18th 11-4; Royal Kahala (2021) 9th 9-2; Dinoblue 11-8 9th last year.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16 (Kim Muir) One favourite has won in the last 10 years, and 8/10 SPs range from 6-1 to 40-1 (twice).
Ages: 7 and 8 (9-10). Weight: 11st 4lb to 11st 9lb (6/8). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143, 141, 142, 134. Ran at the festival before (9/13).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 4-1 UR (2016); 5-1 UR (2017), 4-1 2nd (2018), 3-1 8th (2019), 5-1 jt favs 7th and 11th (2020) and 9-2 jt favs 2nd and PU in 2022.
NOW A STORM APPROACHING
⭕ 1.30 Wincanton The card got the go-ahead against the odds but the ground has changed significantly from good (good to firm in places) to good to soft.
This can help our cause as don’t forget horses will have been declared on the quicker ground so many might not be running on their ideal surface – although of course it can also signal a burst of non runners.
There were seven scratchings at 10am but keep an eye on the Betdaq Betting Exchange racecards as the day progresses.
Two are out of the opener and that should make things even easier for Stormy Weather who is taken to defy a 9lb hike in the weights for his easy success at Taunton last month. He’s versatile ground wise and had a ton in hand when beating Dock Road by eight lengths.
This will be the first time he has tackled a trip in excess of three miles but if anything it could even bring about an improvement.
Windance looks the most likely alternative. At face value the handicapper has been very lenient for only raising him 3lb for a 16 length success at Fontwell last time out but the race is hard to assess. It was only a four runner affair and the warm favourite Ozzie Man pulled up. In any event this is a much stronger contest.
⭕ 5.45 Newcastle I’m sticking with the two class 4’s races on Newcastle’s card tonight.
The first of those is a fillies handicap and looks set to be won by Compliant who has hit a nice patch of form for trainer James Fanshawe. She’s up 3lb for her Kempton win but you get the feeling that there could easily be more to come.
There’s a fitness/track question mark over main market rival Nigwa who faces the all-weather for the first time and is back after a 141 day break. A winner of a Ripon maiden she likes to race prominently but did seem to need the run after a shorter break last time out.
⭕ 6.15 Newcastle Deferred has an interesting profile and looks likely to go well on handicap debut for Roger Varian (2 winners from last 9 runners).
He steadily improved in three starts last season and ran his best race on his latest run at Lingfield when chasing home the Sir Michael Stoute trained Believe In Stars. The third from that race has won and finished second in two starts since.
He’s rated on a similar mark to the likes of Roudemental and Dingle who both seem to have had their limitations exposed so it would be disappointing if he wasn’t progressive enough to win off this mark.
1.30 Wincanton (win 10, nap)
BET 7.1pts win STORMY FLIGHT
5.45 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win COMPLIANT
6.15 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 5pts win DEFERRED
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