SAINT’S ALIVE! IT’S ANOTHER WINNING SUPERNAP: Daqman made 58 points profit in a single day yesterday with three winners from four races, including his supernap, Saint Calvados (WON 5-4), at Newbury.
WON 5-2 LE ROCHER (doubled with the nap)
WON 7-4 WHATSWRONGWITHYOU
WON 5-4 SAINT CALVADOS (supernap)
OPPOSE THE EARLY FAVOURITES AT WINCANTON: Here’s how Daqman sees the outcome of analysis on four races at Ludlow and Wincanton today:
1.40 Wincanton: LAY the favourite, BACK a 10.5 outsider
2.10 Wincanton: LAY the favourite, BACK two in the race
3.45 Ludlow: PLAY the in-form Nick Williams (form 1121)
3.55 Wincanton: GO nap on the local trainer Paul Nicholls
DIGGING FOR TREASURE AT 10.5
1.40 Wincanton Opposing the older, exposed horses paid off yesterday, and this handicap hurdle has not been won in the decade by anything over seven.
At the same time, I can’t have the five-year-old novice favourite, Contented, who has to give weight all round.
No horse in front or behind him in his last two starts has won a race under Rules, though those are the races on which his reputation relies.
Newport trainer Robert Stephens is in good form with his small string, striking at 40%, and comes over the bridge before the wind gets up with Tudors Treasure, a soft-ground winner last Spring who had a run back recently: 10.5 in the BETDAQ orange, early mouse.
Beau Phil is a Paul Nicholls cast-off who has been kept to a sound surface so far, and Savoy Court is a big, chasing type who would probably prefer a galloping track.
SPACE FOR THE FINAL FRONTIER
2.10 Wincanton (Somerset National) The one area where age and experience are at a premium is the stamina test, and the last four winners of this have been 10, 11 and 12 (twice).
Keep an eye (!) on Cyclop in the BETDAQ market, second in the Southern National and winner of the Lincolnshire National.
Trevor Whelan, his only winning jockey in this country, tries to complete the Lincoln-Somerset double for a stable in good form and conditions in the horse’s favour. But is the animal tough enough, and experienced enough, to put three Nationals together?
You could say the same of Rathlin Rose, third in the Southern National and then sixth in the Welsh National only 12 days ago. The difference is that Cyclop is only seven; Rathlin Rose 10.
Court Frontier beat Cyclop 14 lengths in the Cambridgeshire National at Huntingdon for Paul Morgan last March but has disappointed since, including switched to Christian Williams for his last three starts.
I’d like to say that the dogs are barking Wuff (!) but he’s easy to back, making a big step up in trip, for which his pedigree gives no positives whatever.
Themanfrom Minella doesn’t hold his form for more than a couple of starts and his trip is 3m.
Royal Palladium doesn’t hold his form, period, and the front-runner has never won this far. But he loves the mud and ran a cracker here at Listed level a couple of years ago, though was only fifth in today’s race last year. Goes well fresh.
Dawson City’s recent starts have been stinkers, but he does well at this time of year: he was runner-up in the Sussex National last January, and was second in today’s race in 2016. He won his only other Wincanton start by 32 lengths last Spring.
VERDICT: Rathlin Rose has been well supported this morning on the strength of a decent Welsh National run but did that race take its toll?
I was on the David Pipe bulls yesterday and got gored, neither one of them completing the course. That makes 5-10 from Nicolashayne to fall or be pulled up in the last 12 days.
Court Frontier, Royal Palladium and Dawson City are all capable of going close but all have to bounce back.
Court Frontier has run his last two races over hurdles and they were never going to be enough of a test for him: I take the 8.2 about him this morning, and 10.0 to see a revival from Dawson City in cheekpieces.
A GRAND NAP FOR NICHOLLS
3.45 Ludlow Nick Williams’s Gamain has been penalised for being beaten: he goes up 5lb at the weekend after his excellent second over today’s CD eight days ago, so tries to sneak under the radar here.
He’s climbing up a class but that means he’s down in the weights and he has a 7lb claim, all bringing him down to a featherweight, yet 3.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
3.55 Wincanton The only older horse (over the age of six) to win this was a latecomer to the novice-hurdles scene, name of Thistlecrack, in 2015.
And Paul Nicholls’ four-year-old Grand Sancy (3.0 on BETDAQ) was unlucky to come up against a subsequent Listed winner in a bumper on the course in December.
It’s a worry that we don’t see much of Jurby, a Malcolm Jefferson cast-off, and I don’t understand the drop back in trip for either 3m Irish points winner, Imaminna, or 2m 5f chase scorer Commodore.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet is to win 20):
BET 2pts win and place TUDORS TREASURE (1.40 Wincanton)
BET 2.75pts win and place COURT FRONTIER, and 2pts win and place DAWSON CITY (2.10 Wincanton)
BET 10pts win GAMAIN (3.45 Ludlow)
BET 10pts win (nap) GRAND SANCY (3.55 Wincanton)
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