CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: BIG GAMBLES ON DAY 3: Daqman’s ferreting out the best prices and offers last week has paid off already in the BETDAQ market place for Cheltenham ante-post betting. Today he also spots four big gambles on the exchange, Modus, Un De Sceaux, Yanworth and Laurina, as he checks out Day 3 of the festival.
WINCANTON NAP: DAQMAN has three bets on Thursday – a day on which racing returns in volume with five cards.
HUGE STAYERS VALUE ON BETDAQ
The proof of the pudding. Staying close to the BETDAQ betting (pun intended) is an essential to value hunting, as revealed in the changing shape of the Stayers Hurdle market for Cheltenham next Thursday, Day 3 of my preview.
1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 15 (JLT Novices’ Chase)
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies Al Boum Photo, Footpath, both likely to run elsewhere at the meeting.
Betdaq value We backed Monalee for the RSA yesterday, intending to back him here if he switches races.
He is big compared with bookmakers offers at 8.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post. The bookies are betting as low as 5-2, generally 3-1, so that in many cases he is favourite.
Money horse Modus, 23.0 down to 7.4 this morning
2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase)
Betdaq value 3-1 and 7-2 with bookmakers this morning, Waiting Patiently was 8.4 on BETDAQ. Frodon, 12-1 in places with the fixed-odds layers, was 18.0 on BETDAQ, biggest in any market.
Money horse Un De Sceaux, 5.3 to 2.92
3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Stayers Hurdle)
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies Sam Spinner
Betdaq value I spotted last week that the 8-1 and 10-1 Penhill with bookmakers was well surpassed by 13.0 in the BETDAQ orange. This morning Penhill was 8.2.
I told you that I watched Unowhatimeanharry, generally 12-1 with bookmakers, taken repeatedly on BETDAQ from 18.0 in to 15.5 and 16.0. Today he was down to 10.5.
Money horse Yanworth 14.0 to 6.2
4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle)
Betdaq value Countister, generally 8-1 with the layers last week, was 13.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange. This morning: 9.6 and 10-5.
Money horse Laurina, 2.75 to 1.74
GO MO NAP AT WINCANTON
After the famine comes the feast with no less than FIVE race meetings taking place on Thursday including a return to racing in Ireland at Thurles.
2.10 Wincanton the card opens with a competitive 10 runner handicap that threw up a shock 14/1 winner last year.
The money this year is pointing towards the top weight Johns Luck who has been nibbled at on morning BETDAQ trade and I quite like his chance of defying the big weight.
The handicapper has certainly given him a big chance, dropping him 5lb to a mark of 102. He didn’t run all that well last time out at Ludlow but he is back in trip today and down in grade which I think will make a big difference. His trainer Neil Mulholland had a double at Fontwell yesterday and the market support is another positive.
Breaking Ground scored his first win in 11 starts here last time out when springing a 25/1 surprise over a slightly longer trip. The penny seemed to drop that day and he won with plenty in hand, suggesting he can be competitive again on similar ground, even off a 7lb higher mark.
Denny Kerrell would have chances on his Towcester second but ran appallingly here at Wincanton last year when quietly fancied for a handicap hurdle but was beaten over 60 lengths.
A ‘win 20 points’ bet on Johns Luck for me on both the BETDAQ win and place markets.
2.40 Wincanton just the six runners here but another competitive heat. Sea Wall bids for quite a rare medal – a hat-trick of course and distance wins but had little in hand when beating War Sound by half a length last month – although he did idle close home making it quite hard for the handicapper. He’s up another 2lb.
I prefer the chances of Moabit who won well under Bryony Frost at Chepstow last time out and the Paul Nicholls trained runner can follow up here off a 7lb higher mark.
Watcombe Heights is still lightly raced and is another interesting runner stepping back in trip after finishing a five length second here last time out.
3.35 Southwell Jack The Truth won well at Chelmsford last time out and a 4lb hike might not be enough to anchor him.
He’s two wins from three starts here at Southwell and has the profile of a horse very much still on the upgrade.
Crosse Fire ran well for me earlier the week when a head second at 7/2 but despite the margin was comfortably held by the winner and he looks in need of help from the handicapper now.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win and place bets staked to win 20)
BET 3.4pts win and 13.6pts place JOHNS LUCK (2.10 Wincanton)
BET 9.5pts win (nap) MOABIT (2.40 Wincanton)
BET 9.0pts win JACK THE TRUTH (3.35 Southwell)
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