DAQMAN DAY AGAIN WITH 9-1 KEMPTON STRIKE: Daqman naps at Worcester this afternoon but tries two more long-shots at Kempton tonight after back-to-back winners there yesterday included a 9-1 hit.
WON 13-8 INTUITIVE
WON 9-1 INVASION DAY
1-2-3-4-5! IT’S ANOTHER BIG-RACE COUNTDOWN: Daqman’s top five in last week’s ABC guide to the Arc were the first five to finish! Can he do it again with his stats-and-facts analysis of the Cesarewitch?
ABC GUIDE TO THE CESAREWITCH
4.10 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch Handicap)
A Aged four and older (only three 3yo wins in 30 years)
B Flat-race winner at 1m 6f + (82%)
C Carried 7st 13lb to 8st 11lb (80%)
D Rated 84 to 89 (80%)
E Won in class 2 or better (60%)
X Stable in form (25+% strike rate)
ABCDE Great White Shark
Hit the 134 mark over hurdles and probably underrated off 89 on the Flat after comfortably accounting for a big field at the Galway Festival.
ABCDE Mr Everest
Irish November Handicap winner who had been third in the Irish Cesarewitch but was well behind Great White Shark at Galway.
Sir Mark Prescott sequence horse climbed two stone with six wins in a row from 1m 4f to 2m 4f to take the Goodwood Handicap.
ABCD Great Trango
Galway Festival winner 2018 and has taken two handicap hurdles since but only eighth to Great White Shark at Ballybrit this time around.
ABEX Eddystone Rock
Fifth to Mr Everest in the 2018 Irish November Handicap; second in this year’s Great Metropolitan at Epsom, but best form in August when returned to 2m, winning at Ascot and York.
ABE Coeur De Lion
Reached 144 at one time over hurdles before placed in big Flat handicaps at Chester, Newbury and Newcastle, and fifth in the Ascot Stakes.
ABE Cypress Creek
Won the Group-3 Loughbrown Stakes at Naas last autumn but has struggled since at Group 1 and 2 levels at odds up to 100-1 twice. This is a big step down in class.
ABE Dubawi Fifty
Placed in the Chester Cup, Ascot Stakes and Northumberland Plate but has to bounce back after being well beaten behind Timoshenko and then Eddystone Rock at Goodwood and York.
ABE Time To Study
Well-known performer in Ascot Stakes (third), Queen’s Vase, Cesarewitch, Chester Cup, Northumberland Plate, without much to show for it, but – dropped around a stone and down to 1m 6f – landed back-to-back wins on very soft ground in the late summer.
AB Sneaky Getaway
Successful bumpers sequence (2113) before turning to the Flat but last of five to Stradivarius in the Doncaster Cup.
A very long way back in last year’s Cesarewitch but useful over hurdles since. Stablemate of Great White Shark and Buildmeupbuttercup.
AB Who Dares Wins
Beat Coeur De Lion in the 2017 Cesarewitch trial but down the field in the big race proper. Placed in consecutive Chester Cups and won the Northumberland Plate in June, so cannot be ignored.
Sixties Icon mare. Frankie Dettori booked so backed as the Mullins pick over Great White Shark and Stratum. Ascot Stakes second, runaway winner of Galway maiden and neck defeat in a big field at Leopardstown on the last day. Strictly, doesn’t tick the boxes.
BC Land Of Oz
It’s been a yellowbrick road as yet another Sir Mark Prescott sequence horse (1111311), ultimately 35lb higher as winner of the Cesarewitch trial over CD last month.
BC Ranch Hand
Gamble of the race, the Lingfield Derby trial fifth to Anthony Van Dyck did not see a racecourse until March and this will be only his sixth start (3-5 so far) after stepping up in trip on the soft to score at Haydock (1m 6f) a month back.
I marked him down for the Cesarewitch in my Fortune Cookies yonks back and his two out of three in the late summer – both 2m – are encouraging. His soft-ground form (00) is not.
GET A RUN FOR YOUR MONEY
2.10 Worcester If You Say Run has won three times on her reappearance run, and starts her chasing career here with Paul Nicholls currently on 2-3 in a fortnight’s selective placing.
Between 10lb and two stone better than the rest of the field on hurdles ratings, yet around even money in BETDAQ offers this morning.
7.00 Kempton This quality claiming handicap (class 2) went to Pactolus last year. He’s 5lb higher this time and has to contend with a double-figure draw but he’s 12 times an AW winner, back to form on the last day, and Oisin Murphy has been booked.
Kasbaan has had back-to-back CD successes here, including the London Mile Final, which have cost him a rise of nearly a stone. Chiefofchiefs is also on a high mark.
The royal runner, Seniority, fourth in the Goodwood Mile, has scored on this course and is overdue another win, but gate 13 looks unlucky.
George William is 2-2 on man-made surfaces and has suggested more than once this term that he needs a mile.
Won over the trip way back, well drawn in 5 today and with Tom Marquand – his last winning rider – back in the saddle. I took 12.5 in the BETDAQ orange .
8.00 Kempton Is he the new Frankie Dettori? There’s no way his countryman Marco Ghiani can catch Cieren Fallon this season but he’s making connections with a view to winning the 2020 apprentice title.
Sir Michael Stoute has spotted that Marco’s riding weight is 8st 2lb, which is where his 5lb claim takes him on first-time blinkered Honfleur, 9.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
2.10 Worcester (supernap)
BET 20pts win IF YOU SAY RUN
7.00 Kempton (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win GEORGE WILLIAM
8.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win HONFLEUR
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