ASCOT COUNTDOWN: BOOKIES AND PUNTERS ALIKE SHUN DERBY FORM: Daqman starts his Royal Ascot countdown today with incredulity at the bookmaker offers, and lack of uptake for them, for the King Edward V11 Stakes. He also has news of the Coventry Stakes, Kings Stand, Commonwealth Cup and Queen Alexandra Stakes.
TODAY: Three selections from DAQMAN but low stakes on a day high on quantity but not quality. One winner should guarantee a profit on his Thursday staking plan. His nap runs in the 4.20 at Yarmouth.
ASCOT: DERBY FORM BEING IGNORED
It don’t make sense! One basic way forward for punters is to use the form of a race, or collateral form, reading it like a map that charts future winners. ‘This beat that’ so ‘it should beat that’.
For example, form-book anoraks must surely be scrambling to get on the horse that beat the Derby winner before his Epsom triumph, and bookies should be fearful to lay him.
But punters don’t have to scramble to back Alenquer for the King Edward V11 Stakes at Royal Ascot, and the bookies are totally laid back about him.
He’s not even favourite, not even second favourite, though he ’just did enough’ to beat the Epsom hero Adayar when they met in the Spring for the Sandown Classic Trial.
Ok then, is Hurricane Lane, the Dante winner, and third in the Derby itself, the one to be on in the Edward V11.. or Mojo Star the Derby runner-up? Apparently neither is remotely fancied.
Two handicappers are reckoned first and second favourite with Alenquer – a confirmed runner – averaging around 6-1, Hurricane Lane 8-1 and Mojo Star 9-1.
The favourites at this stage are Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge and Sir Lamorak, of Aidan O’Brien’s.
Bay Bridge won the London Gold Cup (1m 2f handicap) at Newbury in May and Sir Lamorak won the Leopardstown Handicap in late April.
Bay Bridge cannot even put up his own bit of collateral form to encourage us to follow this crazy market.
Only last Saturday, the second horse home in the London Gold Cup, King Frankel, was 5-2 for a handicap at Epsom.. and he was beaten by a nine-horse maiden!
That’s further evidence for the prosecution so far in my case in Tuesday’s Daqman for describing Adayar as a fortunate Derby winner in the moderate mould of Masar.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Willie Mullins will run Sunday’s seven-lengths Listowel winner Saldier in the Queen Alexandra Stakes.
Fozzy Stack’s Castle Star, ante-post favourite for the Coventry, will wait for the Railway Stakes at the Curragh later in the month.
Fortune Cookies’ player Glass Slippers will miss the Kings Stand Stakes on Tuesday in favour of the Diamond Jubilee later in the week.
BETDAQ value in the Commonwealth Cup? 5.0 Campanelle, a confirmed runner, will start shorter if Suesa does not run (6.0, has to be supplemented).
ARIEL TO CLEAN UP
⭕ 4.20 Yarmouth Now a four runner handicap with the defection of Baby Alya, Ivynator and Jebel Dukhan but it remains a very competitive market on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
I think Ariel has every chance of defying his penalty and notching up the hat-trick.
It’s hardly a surprise to see trainer Charles Hills striking whilst the iron is hot with the three-year-old who was an impressive four length winner at Ripon last time out. He had plenty in hand and was value for even further – a fact not lost on the handicapper who has hiked him up 9lb in the future but ahead of that gets in here with the statutory 6lb penalty – so we can can back a big improver who is 3lb well in.
I was surprised to not see him trading as favourite. Currently Mr Excellency heads the market – he was a dual winner at quirky Southwell in his first two starts but hasn’t quite converted that form to turf yet in two starts since. He didn’t settle particularly well at Newmarket last time out and will need to improve on his sixth placed effort to win this – even allowing for the small field.
Mighty Power is harder to assess – it’s his first start since being gelded but is another who on the evidence to date might be better on the artificial surface.
The quartet is completed by Frantoio who is now starting life in handicapping company but if anything seemed to regress in his first three starts and was very disappointing at Newmarket in May.
SILVER LINING WITH HI HO
⭕ 5.30 Yarmouth Trainer Chris Wall is running at an impressive strike-rate of four winners from his last 14 runners and a further five silver medals in that sequence too.
Silver might turn to gold for his Hi Ho Silver who was a course and distance winner here last year and again ran well over C&D when third here in April after a break.
This doesn’t look the toughest of races with some badly handicapped rivals including both Queen Of Burgundy and Gently Spoken who are both set to race off lower marks in the future.
ESTATE LOOKS HOME AND DRY
⭕ 8.00 Haydock The biggest field of the night at Haydock and the only race getting into double digits.
Estate House might be revitalised by the first time cheekpieces, but also the better ground.
He ran one of his better races on good ground at Chepstow last year and has been running on a mix of all-weather and softer ground since then.
He looks more interesting than Precision Storm who with form figures of 212222 is nothing if not consistent.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 5.0pts win (nap) ARIEL (4.20 Yarmouth)
BET 3.1pts win HI HO SILVER (5.30 Yarmouth)
BET 1.9pts win ESTATE HOUSE (8.00 Haydock)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.