NIFTY HEADLINE HAS A 7-1 HIT: Daqman’s headline ‘Nifty move to nab 8.8 on Betdaq’ proved its point when Nifty Kier (WON 7-1) scored at Bath yesterday on a day when Daqman was the first to preview the King George without Postponed.
DAQMAN’S ADVICE FOR THE DAY: Ignore hype tipping on the Ebor. Prepare to celebrate Boynton. Don’t be surprised if St Michel is beaten. Nap the unlucky horse at Yarmouth in June, laid out for today.
LOOK OUT FOR A HOLIDAY YANKEE: It’s a rare thing – maybe the heat has got to Daqman – but today he celebrates the start of the holidays with a yankee!
DON’T FABRICATE AN ANTE-POST BET
It’s an insult. To recommend a bet on the Ebor Handicap today is daylight robbery on behalf of bookmakers, with 111 left in, no idea of the ground conditions and a known draw bias, which won’t be revealed for 28 days.
I shall return to the race at the start of York week and hope that The Queen’s Fabricate is still in there, a ‘hidden horse’ laid out for the prize.
We’ve already had one royal stroke of luck with the King George so reduced that our Fortune Cookie, another of Her Majesty’s, Dartmouth, will start favourite.
I’d like to add Fabricate to my fortune hunters – my whisper is very strong (almost a shout) – but the list is restricted to prospective Group winners and the snag with this horse is that, if he’s eliminated from the Ebor, they will have to resort to Plan B.
He could do with a few more pounds on his back (out of class 3) to land a more representative mark and get into better quality races, but a penalty might ruin his chance to sneak in at the bottom of the Ebor weights.
And penalised Ebor runners don’t win. Who would be Michael Bell, or any other trainer, plotting for a royal winner in Herself’s 91st year (I mean, apart from the maestro, Sir Michael Stoute, who seems to have ‘done it again’).
CHURCHILL MY FIRST TWO-YEAR-OLD
7.35 Leopardstown (Tyros Stakes) They shout about all the big two-year-old trials but this Group 3 is a little gem.
After New Approach for Jim Bolger, subsequent Aidan O’Brien winners among his five out of eight since 2008 have included Gleneagles and Deauville in the last two years.
Churchill is, therefore, going for a Ballydoyle hat-trick here on a path trod by recent winners of the Epsom Derby, Belmont Derby, and Newmarket and Curragh 2,000 Guineas.
I confess I missed the race from the schedules in my two-year-olds to follow list. Churchill will be the list’s first runner.
But his going for a Group 3 first is an acknowledgement that Churchill needs more education before we can bring out the fat cigars.
In fact, even if he wins this, the handicapper will have to raise the ratings value of not only Churchill but more so Boynton, another in our list.
Churchill beat Isomer (won only a maiden since), Cunco and Mr Scaramanga in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. Third and fourth were also third and fourth to Boynton at Newmarket but further behind him.
FIRM GROUND IS A PLUS FOR PALING
2.30 Sandown St Michel must also prove his last-day win no fluke. He looked impressive at Beverley but was beating a maiden, followed home by a pair who have not won since 2014.
St Michel goes up a nominal 6lb penalty today but, even with the full handicapper’s hit (9lb), will only be 2lb up on Parliamentarian (5.6 offers on BETDAQ ), who has been given 83 for a smooth maiden success at Hamilton, and the step up in trip for October Storm will suit.
3.40 Sandown Three-year-olds have won this seven years in a row, and Juste Pour Nous is due to go up 3lb for future races, albeit he’s raced that high already.
This is Mark Johnton’s pick of four handicaps for him over the next three days but he’s still trying to add to a maiden success of last September.
Natural Scenery, out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, may need a bit of cut in the ground, and I fancy Paling, who has won on the firm.
4.25 Yarmouth Jive Time looks well placed here, unlucky not to score over a furlong further on the course in June (firmish) when, giving weight to the first two, he was beaten half a length and a neck.
5.25 Yarmouth Similarly, Chetan comes back for more, beaten only a neck over CD earlier this month. Tarboosh (4.55) looks a Daq Multiples banker.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win PARLIAMENTARIAN (2.30 Sandown)
BET 4pts win PALING (3.40 Sandown)
BET 3.5pts win and place COOPERESS (4.10 Sandown)
BET 10pts win (nap) JIVE TIME (4.25 Yarmouth)
BET 6.5pts win CHETAN (5.25 Yarmouth)
DAQ MULTIPLES 1pt win yankee Paling (3.40 Sandown), Jive Time (4.25 Yarmouth), Tarboosh (4.45 Yarmouth) and Churchill (7.35 Leopardstown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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