50-POINT BULL’S EYE! DAQMAN OVER THE MOON WITH 18-1 YORK STRIKE Daqman’s summer streak continued yesterday to make it TEN days with a daily profit out of the last 11 when he landed the big handicap at York with Summer Moon (WON 18-1) in a 50-point bull’s-eye bet. It took him 29-14 up on Pricewise, 274.69 points clear of his arch-rival to level stakes.
🔹 HUGE BETDAQ HANDICAPS VALUE
🔹 OH, FOR SOME WINGS FOR OISIN
🔹 BILLIAN AIR OF A MAJOR PLAYER
🔹 SHELIR BETDAQ 28.0 IS ‘WRONG’
🔹 MY LONE ‘VOICE’ AGAINST LOVE..
🔹 WAVE THE WAND: LAND THE NAP
HUGE BETDAQ HANDICAPS VALUE
⚠️ HEADS UP: Twice yesterday the bookies got a bit carried away at York. Their normal SP return of 110% or so was wildly exceeded in the opener (129 Total percentage SP) and was 131% in the 3.45. Both these races were handicaps.
The BETDAQ morning market which I screen shot at 10 a.m. recorded 106% totals in each of those two races, revealing massive value to early-mouse handicap punters.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Mark Johnston moved up a gear at York yesterday with a 189-1 double through Gear Up (9-1) and Summer Moon (18-1).
William Buick broke big-name hearts on Ghaiyyath in the International with what trainer Charlie Appleby described as the ‘perfect’ ride.
The trainers and jockeys tables below are based upon a 10-year record of winners of races scheduled at York this week, with yesterday’s results as the update.
Trainers William Haggas 20, John Gosden 13, Kevin Ryan 13, Richard Hannon 10, David O’Meara 10, Richard Fahey 9, Charlie Appleby 9, Sir Michael Stoute 8, Andrew Balding 7, Aidan O’Brien 7, Mark Johnston 7.
Jockeys James Doyle 13, Jamie Spencer 12, William Buick 12, Daniel Tudhope 10, Jim Crowley 8, Paul Hanagan 8, Ryan Moore 8, Oisin Murphy 8, Andrea Atzeni 6, Silvestre De Sousa 5.
OH, FOR SOME WINGS FOR OISIN
⭕ 1.45 York (Lowther Stakes) Though there have been mixed messages from the subsequent form, Queen Mary runner-up Sacred is ‘expected’ here for William Haggas, who has won the Lowther twice in the last eight seasons.
Sacred had Happy Romance behind when Campanelle swept past her at Royal Ascot. Campanelle will try to beat the colts in the Prix Morny on Sunday.
Being whispered at a huge price by my man in the long grass is Wings Of A Dove, well behind in the Queen Mary but a steady improver since.
Led a furlong out in the National Stakes at Sandown; then not clear run in the Molecomb at Goodwood. Had the grey filly not given away distance by slow starts, she might have been more closely involved, particularly at unforgiving Goodwood.
Oisin Murphy has been booked with the express intention of getting her away with the others and placing in this Group-2 dash.
Charged to the account at this morning’s BETDAQ 80.0 and 8.4, along with 15.0
Ken Condon’s grey Irish raider Miss Amulet, who was impressive at Naas, the way she cruised with the pace in the manner much needed at York.
BILLIAN AIR OF A MAJOR PLAYER
⭕ 2.15 York (Sales race) They raced down the centre yesterday but this big field usually splits them up and favours the near side: eight winners in the decade came from stalls 12 to 19. Richard Hannon 3, William Haggas 3 in the last seven seasons.
It’s another pinstickers’ race but the stats may give us a chance. Uncle Jumbo, whose stable won a strong two-year-old handicap here yesterday, has booked Ryan Moore for a horse we know will do battle.
You could get 9.3 about this useful prospect who is related to the gutsy Major Jumbo; and, gelded already, his mind is on the job, as he showed at Doncaster.
The overnight punt was Billian, still attractive at 12.5 on BETDAQ this morning. Won on the stiff Beverley track (firm) and his sire was a top-quality two-year-old.
On the other side, out of stall 3, Devious Company has already shown a touch of class and stamina to blend with his speed: second to Battleground at Goodwood.
SHELIR BETDAQ 28.0 IS ‘WRONG’
⭕ 2.45 York (1m handicap) Results by stall suggest that low-drawn trackers and high-stall hold-up horses share this prize: 1, 1, 1, 4 but 13, 14, 15, 16, 18. It makes sense.
I prefer the Royal Hunt Cup runner-up Montatham (stall 2) to the Hunt Cup’s Silver Consolation winner, Sir Busker (from 11) and took 8.0 this morning.
Shelir (out of the one stall) has dropped nicely in the weights, though fifth in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot (8b better off with the winner, Motakhayyel), and 28.0 on BETDAQ is ‘wrong.’
Shelir’s stable also has York specialist Firmament (stall 6), with form on the track in the last four years of 1233214201; Prompting, with three in a row (but seems best at 7f); and Orbaan, a CD winner in July in today’s conditions; now hooded.
The hood may make a difference, so might blinkers (on Mutamaasik) and a gelding op (to Ouzo).
Firmament, winner of this in 2016 and fourth last year, is claimed off now as an equaliser, after being penalised 5lb for winning here on the last day.
Top Rank (out of 13) is a fine big animal and an improver but both trainer (1-13) and jockey (1-39) are in modest form.
It’s a similar tale about last year’s winner, What’s The Story, with trainer Dalgleish 0-30 and jockey Gray 0-14.
MY LONE ‘VOICE’ AGAINST LOVE..
⭕ 3.15 York (Yorkshire Oaks) Enable won this twice, enabling her trainer, John Gosden, to beat Aidan O’Brien 3-2 in the decade. Runners in official-ratings order:
122 LOVE (013-11 Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) Unbeaten this year, winner of the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas and the Epsom Oaks, with Frankly Darling nearly 10 lengths back, third. On form, her only fear is a soft surface.
114 ONE VOICE (1-2102 Jessica Harrington, Tom Marquand) Group-3 winner who stepped up into top grade at Goodwood, going down only a neck to French Oaks winner Fancy Blue in the Nassau Stakes. First run beyond 1m 2f today but has looked as though the extra quarter-mile is needed..
110 FRANKLY DARLING (2-113 John Gosden, Robert Havlin) Ribblesdale winner at Royal Ascot but nearly 10 lengths behind Love in the Epsom Oaks, though trainer Gosden said she was unsuited by the undulating track.
110 MANUELA DE VEGA (22-11 Ralph Beckett, Rob Hornby) Broke a bridesmaid sequence of places in the pattern when beating subsequent Hardwicke winner, Fanny Logan, at Haydock, following up on the same course by winning the Lancashire Oaks from yesterday’s handicap third Makawee. Her secret was revealed: she is a different filly on soft ground.
108 FRANCONIA (2-11 John Gosden, James Doyle) Back-to-back 10-furlong wins at Newbury and York in Listed company. Could improve at today’s trip but prefers fast ground.
097 ALPINISTA (04-41 Sir Mark Prescott, Ryan Tate) A stone to find from her firm-ground Listed success at Salisbury but she is more than a novelty as a Frankel grey, with huge stock of stamina from high-class family on the dam’s side.
Verdict Though Frankly Darling may not have enjoyed the ups and downs and cambers of Epsom, her Ribblesdale runner-up, Ennistymon, was also runner-up at Epsom, with the comparative margins suggesting that Frankly Darling was disadvantaged little more than a length.
That form is not a perfect guide, no more than is the earlier 34 lengths thrashing by Love of the runner-up to Franconia at York (Gold Wand)!
But, on the evidence, would you bet that either of the Gosden girls can close down Love today? Frankly, no!
Love herself has an arch-enemy in today’s race: softish ground, though sunshine is forecast with hours of rising temperatures before the race. Her form with ‘soft’ and ‘yielding’ in the going return is 203, wrapped around her super sequence on sounder surfaces of 11111.
Manuela De Vega is favoured by a soft surface but has to give 9lb to Love, and the one most likely to upset the favourite is One Voice, who fell just short of catching the underrated French Oaks winner in a close finish to the Nassau Stakes.
One Voice was enormous value at 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning (3.6 a place). Compare with 1.5 Love to win.
WAVE THE WAND: LAND THE NAP!
⭕ 3.45 York (Galtres Stakes) Albaflora will like the changed ground but her York conqueror last month, Rose Of Kildare, was quickly put in her place yesterday.
Backers of Gold Wand (5.3 taken) could get more encouragement from Franconia in the Yorkshire Oaks, her narrow conqueror here last month.
Sea Of Faith and Award Scheme have sound chances for William Haggas, but the danger to my nap may be Viviann, second in this race last year and saved up for the race again by Sir Michael Stoute.
1.45 York (win 20; then win 70, place win 10)
BET 1.4pts MISS AMULET
BET 1pt win, 1.35pts place WINGS OF A DOVE
2.15 York (each to win 20)
BET 2.5pts win UNCLE JUMBO
BET 1.75pts win BILLIAN
2.45 York (win 50, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7pts win MONTATHAM
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.85pts win and place SHELIR
3.15 York (win 50, place win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4pts win and place ONE VOICE
3.45 York (win 20 nap)
BET 4.5pts win GOLD WAND
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro.. Or just 10p to win!
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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