2/1 APPLAUSE FOR DAQMAN: DAQMAN landed his NAP yesterday with CLAP YOUR HANDS WON 2/1. He showed a profit across his three bets on a quiet day. It’s an even quieter day today with Ayr and Lingfield off, and it’s snow go for the rearranged Punchestown card featuring the Grand National Trial after the course was hit by a heavy morning snowfall.
IT’S A GRAND WEEK FOR NATIONAL PUNTERS: It’s all about the Grand National this week, with the weights for the Aintree race announced today (see Daqman tomorrow) followed by the Haydock Trial on Saturday.
🗓️ Liverpool Grand National, Aintree, April 4
🗓️ Irish Grand National: Fairyhouse, April 13
⚠️ HEADS UP TODAY: It remains windy at Newcastle with clerk of the course James Armstrong tweeting speeds varying from 30mph and higher. The course will continue to monitor ahead of the first race scheduled for 4.20pm.
⚠️ HEADS UP WEDNESDAY: The weather has also impacted on Wednesday’s racing. Fairyhouse and Wetherby have already been called off and prospects for Hereford look bleak. The course is currently unraceable with an inspection called for 8am on race day morning.
⚠️ HEADS UP THURSDAY: At Fontwell the track is also unraceable at present and an inspection will take place at 4pm today.
The good card at Kelso which features the Morebattle Hurdle is also subject to an inspection this afternoon at 2pm. The track waterlogged in places.
⚠️ HEADS UP SUNDAY: BHA have announced that an additional Jump fixture will take place at Exeter on Sunday to replace the meeting that was lost on Sunday.
THE NEXT LEVEL
I touched last week on Level Stakes betting and why you need to look beyond them. There’ll be plenty more to come on this subject in the weeks to come.
It’s not what you bet but how you back it.
Level stakes may be a guide to the wary but have little or nothing to do with actual betting.
As case in point yesterday. I finished the day with a profit on my staking plan but in the two races that got away I was right to take on the favourites – just on this occasion with the wrong alternatives.
Whilst there are no points for ‘moral victories’, plenty of tipsters just show a selection. DAQMAN always shows his reasoning. A 2/1 NAP from three selections is LEVEL on LEVEL STAKES – but DAQMAN emerged with a profit on the day and reasons for taking on two market leaders.
ESTRELA LOOKS A CHELMSFORD STAR
1.35 Chelmsford Krazy Paving won on his first start since wind surgery over course and distance here on Friday and although it was a narrow margin it did come in handicap company and he might find the company here even easier.
It was a much improved effort from a horse that was beginning to lose his way and I see no reason why he can’t follow up here, particularly with the Olly Murphy stable remaining in irresistible form.
6 winners from their last 17 runners over the last two weeks and a further 6 places !!!
Market leader is Watheer who is running back into some kind of form but is down in trip and his only career win in 17 starts came over seven furlongs (here at Chelmsford).
4.15 Chelmsford As we saw yesterday with Clap Your Hands, heading up the weights isn’t necessarily an anchor for progressive horses over longer distances. I think we have another case in point here with Estrela Star who is out again quickly after his win at Kempton last week and races under a 5lb penalty.
This one drops back in trip but seems equally as effective over 1m 6f and judged by his Kempton win he looks in front of the handicapper so its no surprise to see trainer Ali Stronge get him back at work so soon.
He drew readily clear at Kempton in the same class 6 level as this.
Mr Fox has come in for some early BETDAQ support but his career profile of 1 win from 17 tells its own story with that one win coming over a much shorter trip.
Grandscape is running well enough but his only all-weather win has come at Southwell and the biggest danger might come from recent Kempton winner Muraaqeb who should be suited by the step-up in trip.
5.50 Newcastle This class 4 handicap is the best race of the day !!
It’s a really good betting heat too with preference going to Barrington who deserves to go one better after recent 1/2 length defeats at both Kempton and Lingfield.
He doesn’t need to find much to go one better and its quite probably that Ben Curtis riding for the first time could make the difference.
I’ll have a WIN 10 and a place bet to cover the stakes on the two bets today besides the NAP.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 10 points, place bet to win 5.3pts)
BET 3.5pts win KRAZY PAVING (1.35 Chelmsford)
BET 6.9pts win (nap) ESTRELA STAR (4.15 Chelmsford)
BET 1.8pts win and 3.7pts place BARRINGTON (5.50 Newcastle)
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