14 CHELTENHAM PREVIEW STORIES: It’s here at last! And don’t say you haven’t been well prepared for Cheltenham. Daqman has led you through the minefield of stats, going preferences, favourites, trainers records, ratings et al. You should now use these previews from the Archive.
RACE OF THE CENTURY Daqman February 6
THE ARKLE DOUBLE IS ON Daqman February 7
FACILE WINNER FLOPS Daqman February 8
GOLD CUP RATINGS Daqman February 16
WILLIE MULLINS SHOCK Daqman March 1
FAVOURITES CAR CRASH Daqman March 2
IT’S A BRAVE MAN’S GAME Daqman March 3
100+ CHELTENHAM OUTSIDERS Daqman March 6
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY STATS March 7-10
BANKER HAS WINGS Daqman March 12
20 HORSES WHO LOVE THE MUD Daqman March 13
Now read on….
BIG BETDAQ VALUE FROM DAY ONE: They’re off with new Star Stats and Lays Logic of favourites to lose and FORTUNE COOKIES banker bets on favourites to win.
TEMPS FOR A FACILE VICTORY
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Hurdle)
You either believe the form of the Dublin Racing Festival or you don’t. Do you forgive Facile Vega, the beaten favourite by 20 lengths, and put his defeat down to going too fast early on?
Or do you praise the winner, Il Etait Temps, who took full advantage and went nearly 10 lengths clear of the pack with a powerful finish?
If you do believe it, you have a ready-made Willie Mullins double-whammy, in which you lay the favourite and back the one you think should be favourite.
The official handicapper believes it; he has them on a level 155, closing the five-year-old improver, Il Etait Temps, up to his six-year-old stablemate by 9lb since they last met.
The Racing Post ratings believe it; they have Facile Vega behind now by four points, so dismissing the form of their first encounter when he beat Il Etait Temps four lengths.
Either way, Willie Mullins will land an eighth Supreme Novices but the form-book warns that 22 of the last 24 winners had won the last day.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.7 Il Etait Temps
HE’S ABSOLUTELY FABIOLO
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy)
FORTUNE COOKIE El Fabiolo is the right age and has a winning rating. He was beaten a neck by Jonbon at Aintree over hurdles last April and probably would be again.
But over fences Jonbon has been beating nothing well in small-field races: one runner-up, Calico, has managed only a 139 rating since and the other, Boot Hill, has been beaten twice this year and rates 149.
Jonbon has looked good and been raised to 159; that seems big but still leaves something to find with El Fabiolo’s 162.
That was largely achieved the last day with a 10-lengths beating of Banbridge (152 when he lines up with a big chance in the Turners later in the week), Appreciate It (160) and Dysart Dynamo (151).
BETDAQ value 2.41 El Fabiolo (nap)
RAMBLER IS THE ULTIMATE
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase)
FORTUNE COOKIE Corach Rambler (pictured below) has to defy the fate of favourites in this and is strictly a year or two past the sell-by date for an Ultima.
But it’s a race in which those who run well run well again! Vintage Clouds was 2nd and 8th before winning in 2021 and Un Temps Pour Tout won two years running (2016-17).
Corach Rambler won the Ultima last year when I was with him and with Fantastikas (well backed in to 8-1 but made a mistake at a crucial stage).
In fact, 10 winners out of the last 12 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival, so we must include Oscar Elite, third last year. Tea Clipper was fourth but has never won at 3m+ The same applies to Nassalam.
Only four races back, Happygolucky was second to Vintage Clouds (2021) in this race. Cloudy Glen was second in the Kim Miuir in the same year.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 8.6 Corach Rambler, 18 Fantastikas
HILL A HOT NEW CHAMPION
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle)
COOKIE CRUMBLES: I withdrew State Man from Fortune Cookies some time back because he looks like a bystander, even with his immaculate form, as we prepare to celebrate a new champion in the style of an Istabraq.
Constitution Hill went 20 lengths clear of Jonbon in the Supreme Novices, in such a fast time that the Honeysuckle equivalent was still coming up the hill in her second championship, six seconds slower.
Constitution Hill has beaten another champion, Epatante, twice this season by a total of 29 lengths in the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle.
State Man, winner of the County Hurdle last year, has improved 26lb from that handicap and won three Grade 1, with Sharjah, Vauban and Honeysuckle the three runners-up in his last three starts.
BRANDY WINS LOVE MATCH
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle)
LOVE MATCH: Only previous winners of this have won it twice, so is the 2022 heroine, Marie’s Rock, that good?
She rated only 140 when scoring last year, against Quevega’s 155 in 2009 for the first leg of her double.
The eight-year-old Marie’s Rock went on to beat a 147 for the Punchestown Mares’ Champion Hurdle last Spring and a 10-year-old for the Relkeel this January, which has put her on 153.
Epatante (aged 9), third at Punchestown, came back to winning form, also in January, while Honeysuckle (also 9), who won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle proper after her second Cheltenham championship, has been beaten by Teahupoo and State Man, and dropped from 165 to 160 but still 7lb better than Marie’s Rock.
In truth, the top three in the betting are all too old for this (winners have been 5, 6 and 7 in the last eight years), and there is absolutely no market value in choosing between them.
Love Envoi has a right to improve at aged 7 but she was hammered eight lengths by Brandy Love in the Fairyhouse Mares’ Novices, her only defeat.
In this love match, and in the race, Brandy Love is the improver. She much prefers going left-handed and is an each-way price at 8.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
BAD’S A GOOD BOODLES BET
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)
BAD NEWS This has been a pinstickers’ race with big-odds winners, but leading stables at the festival (Gordon Elliott and Paul Nichols) have shared four out of eight since 2015, always with a top jockey up.
I fancy Bad could be good news. Ben Pauling, who has had festival winners at 28-1 and 14-1 twice, books Rachael Blackmore.
Sir Allen has scored twice under 7lb claimers but now has Danny Mullins in the saddle.
Betdaq value 9.2 Bad, 12.5 Sir Allen
MINELLA CROONER ON SONG
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup)
LAYS LOGIC No favourite has won in the last nine years, and Gaillard Du Mesnil’s form profile over fences is an underachieving 33333213.
He was beaten in his only try beyond 3m (in the Irish Grand National) and has lost twice against his arch-rival, Mighty Potter, trained by Gordon Elliott.
Elliott, who has produced Tiger Roll and Cause Of Causes as star seven-year-old stayers from this race, has two that have aimed at it today, whereas the favourite is exposed in his many attempts to reach the big time.
While the going was forecast as good, Gordon was confident in Chemical Energy, who cantered over Mahler Mission at Cheltenham in October.
The same stable’s Minella Crooner may be better suited to today’s soft going and is another who wants the trip.
With Gaillard Du Mesnil a crazy price, I’ll lay him and back the Elliott pair to land two returns from three bets.
BETDAQ value 9.2 Minella Crooner, 12.6 Chemical Energy
DAQMAN’S CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BETS
+STAR STATS Favourites have won only twice in the opening race at 1.30, and they have lost nine years running in the 5.30 and 11 times out of 12 in the 4.50.
LAYS LOGIC 1.30 Facile Vega, 4.50 Tekao, 5.30 Gaillard Du Mesnil
1.30 Cheltenham (win 40)
BET 8.5pts win IL ETAIT TEMPS
2.10 Cheltenham (nap)
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win EL FABIOLO
2.50 Cheltenham
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win CORACH RAMBLER
BET 1pt win and place FANTASTIKAS
4.10 Cheltenham (win total 40)
BET 5pts win and place BRANDY LOVE
4.50 Cheltenham (win 20 each)
BET 2.5pts win BAD
BET 1.85pts win SIR ALLEN
5.30 Cheltenham (win 40)
BET 5pts win MINELLA CROONER
BET 3.75pts win CHEMICAL ENERGY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
